November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm sticking to my previous thinking from 2 days ago. Models will not have a handle on upper level pattern recognition until probably Wednesday 00z. Until then we will probably see variability among models lack of continuity and different 500mb progressions. At this point I would favor a modified backdoor blast via Gorge for PDX and probably Fraser into Vancouver/Bellingham. Unsure if the arctic air would get much beyond that point, maybe Everett. Still a chance models turn even colder and just as well that they become really unfavorable too.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10.... Imagine if this ridge retrograded.....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112906/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Brennan]

Onto the 12z!

[Gradient Keeper]

I wonder how 6z GEFS will look

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto the 12z!

4 hours 29 minutes!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Hey, day 16 la-la land another rex block sets up. What does it take to achieve a sturdy, long lasting block 145-160 W. Seriously.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112906/384/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

I am not really excited about any models at this time, not until one features a sturdy/amplified block with a less progressive pattern. It was encouraging however to see all 00z Ensembles improved and some really cold members too. The 00z GFS/GEM 6-10, 8-14 day composite analogs also were promising. I want to see 12z runs this morning show the offshore ridge backing away/suppressed more quickly. If so, that arctic trough is going to dig another 100-200(or more) miles further south.

[Gradient Keeper]

For OR/WA 6z GEFS 850mb temp anomaly mirrors 00z. Surface temp anomaly same. Perhaps slight tad warmer for southern BC.

 

6z 6-10, 8-14 day composite analogs featured the lowest correlation scores in days 87%, 74%. Tell us that the GFS at least has no real handle on the pattern. Not surprised.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wait. What's this? 8km Water Vapor Loop clearly shows a healthy system near 43.8 N, 142 W, yet 6z nor 00z GFS, GEM or ECMWF shows this feature at all, not even a wave. Neither does the 6z NWS/NCEP Pacific Surface Analysis chart. It's well to the south of the powerhouse Hurricane Force low in the Gulf of Alaska. This could be a new development and may plow right through the offshore transitory ridge which might buckle the pattern sooner. I'm not sure though what the overall implications might be if any on the longwave 500mb pattern.

 

8km Loop http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_enhanced+12

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/images/wv_enhanced/201611291100.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]
Next up....
*12z GFS in 3 hours 4 minutes
12z GEM in 4 hours 4 minutes
12z ECMWF in 5 hours 21 minutes
I might be here for that. I don't know. Root for a stronger ridge near 145-160 W, the offshore ridge to back away/suppressed sooner, and a less progressive pattern!

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Ensembles were the best yet! This suggests that perhaps the long range has room for improvement with possible colder runs coming.

 

Portland: Mean temp -7c, plenty more cold members -7c to -12c

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle: Mean temp almost down to -9c, several cold members -7c to -13c

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Vancouver, BC: Mean temp -9c, several members -10c to -15c

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS

Begins in.... 6 minutes

 

Hoping for a stronger ridge around 150-160 W or a solution similar to 00z. We don't want to see the pattern become too progressive.

 

Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)

Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just stumbled across this little gem from the 3am AFD....

 

From the Long Term:  "...The European model (ecmwf) retains its usual panache for being faster...wetter and more soul-crushing...."

 

 

Never thought of the Euro as being a "soul crusher" LOL!

[Tyler Mode]

8 days of great snowfall at 5,400' at Paradise on Mt. Rainier.  Nice to see vs the last few years.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 3

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/072/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Through HR 78 ridge is stronger than 6z, 00z

 

Bit more amplified and stronger through HR 84

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/096/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Block is a bit more "thick" sturdy compared to previous runs

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 much healthier, amplified block

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Much stronger block, but trough digging looks a bit more broad now..... hmmmm

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 block weakening, but holding further west, bit better tilt
 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/144/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

Block doesn't look any stronger to me. Transitory.

[Gradient Keeper]

Arctic air centered further west in BC on this run

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112912/gfs_T850_nwus_25.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You guys are maniacs, up at 3 am haha.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks alright

[Timmy]

You guys are maniacs, up at 3 am haha.

It's been fun, gives me something to do when my newborn wakes up!

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 162 510 thickness crosses Canadian border.... If that block had just held another 18-24 hours longer. Nice SE ridge too.

[Gradient Keeper]

516 thickness into Seattle

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7-8 colder than 00z

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112912/gfs_T850_nwus_31.png

[bainbridgekid]

12z definitely shows some wet lowland snow Sunday morning (mainly for the North Sound)

 

Also more moisture Monday morning which would be snow further South as well as the low sliding down the coast is 5mb stronger than the 6z.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 hmmmmm

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/192/500h_anom.na.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wonder if PDX will get a freeze

[bainbridgekid]

I wonder if PDF will get a freeze

Adobe is notoriously buggy.

[Jesse]

Looks alright

MAGA

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Adobe is notoriously buggy.

Lol

[FroYoBro]

Looks like the pattern is pretty much set now. Obviously small details will change, but it is looking like some cold air, not arctic air will be hitting us. Will probably be good for some snowflakes in the air for the lowlands, but not looking like anything significant. 

[stuffradio]

Seems like 6Z was an outlier at this point, the ensembles were even better than the OP.

[bainbridgekid]

Fun overrunning event Wednesday on the 12z.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 .... Kick that eastern US trough out and we have reloads coming

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112912/240/500h_anom.na.png

[FroYoBro]

Looks like the pattern is pretty much set now. Obviously small details will change, but it is looking like some cold air, not arctic air will be hitting us. Will probably be good for some snowflakes in the air for the lowlands, but not looking like anything significant. 

Actually the 12z probably shows a decent shot at lowland snow. The temperature looks a little cooler on this run.