Tom Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 12z GFS still showing a decent clipper to close out the month of January... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 @TomNot a bad looking map. I am in the 2-4inch range. At this point, I'll take anything. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 I got a good feeling the Feb thread is gonna be hot to trott! I'll start one up in the next day or two. Plenty of wintry systems to track as we flip the calendar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 I don't see anything too exciting in the long range on the GFS but hoping it will change on future runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 I don't see anything too exciting in the long range on the GFS but hoping it will change on future runs.Agree, that's why I look at ensembles in the extended range. Individual op runs are highly variable in the evolving changing wx pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 GEFS have been slowly shifting the precip from the clipper next week south over the last couple days and now pretty much targeting N MN/WI/MI... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012512/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_23.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 Been awhile since we had a whole winter that almost comoletely avoided supression... On the table Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 Looks like we'll be getting cold enough to at least have the ski hills blow snow. It's brutal here, it feels like end of February on my little midwestern ski hill. Riding on an an ice cube covered in snow cone isn't much fun. At this point, all I want is some single digit nights before President's Day so they can fix the ski hills. Looks like we'll get that at the very least by the start of Feb, as long as this block keeps going the way it is. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 GEFS have been slowly shifting the precip from the clipper next week south over the last couple days and now pretty much targeting N MN/WI/MI... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012512/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_23.png As of this morning, GRR was still thinking this will be a NMI snow maker. But, I am liking that trend, just need the SLP to track far enough south to get some forcing down my way. The last Idk how many years, SWMI has kinda been screwed on a lot of clippers tracking right over our heads delivering the goods to SEMI. This looks to do the same unless it changes even more so as we get in range. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 That shows some precip amounts of snowfall for SEMI, even SWMI. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 00z GEFS predicted snow depth change beginning the following weekend...showing a large increase in the heartland and Lakes... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 The good thing about the long range is that it stays cold. No big warm ups are expected. Now we need a good storm track and a favorable pattern. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 18z GFS painting a nice snow storm on Super Bowl weekend... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 25, 2017 Report Share Posted January 25, 2017 18z GEFS trending brighter for the Clipper next week... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012518/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_22.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017012518/gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_24.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 That shows some precip amounts of snowfall for SEMI, even SWMI.The precip south or even under the SLP track could be sleet, frozen rain, or even just rain depending on the thermal layers though. Have to wait n see.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 18z GFS painting a nice snow storm on Super Bowl weekend...That period bears watching. Small northern stream system 1 day before could get pushed south a bit and merge with the southern wave for real wow factor! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 18z GFS and 12z EPS both show a big storm in the central us around the day 10-11 time frame. Could be our next one to track. Well see what it shows over the next few days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 18z GFS and 12z EPS both show a big storm in the central us around the day 10-11 time frame. Could be our next one to track. Well see what it shows over the next few daysIndeed. It fits the LRC and I have been particularly watching for the models to pick up on it a while back when IndianaJohn asked me if there would be a chance of a storm on Super Bowl Sunday. We'll see how it evolves. Do you have a snow map for comparison reasons? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Indeed. It fits the LRC and I have been particularly watching for the models to pick up on it a while back when IndianaJohn asked me if there would be a chance of a storm on Super Bowl Sunday. We'll see how it evolves. Do you have a snow map for comparison reasons?I've not really been that interested in the weather for much of the last 20 days (my winter is pretty much over I think) but could you tell me which dates that storm correlates with? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 I've not really been that interested in the weather for much of the last 20 days (my winter is pretty much over I think) but could you tell me which dates that storm correlates with?Right around the Dec 9th-11th period... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 That 18z GFS snow map is one of the ugliest 264 hr maps you'll ever see for MI, WI, MN and SD in the middle of winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 I've not really been that interested in the weather for much of the last 20 days (my winter is pretty much over I think) but could you tell me which dates that storm correlates with?TBH, the Dec 6th period also looks familiar with a northern stream storm and southern stream piece. I've heard from Gary before that sometimes storms skip a beat in a different cycle and storms can merge from time to time if the dates are close enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 IMG_0521.PNGYa, that is a pretty darn big storm! TBH, the way this season has gone I'd rather be on the north side of a storm this far out than on the southern end. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 IMG_0521.PNGUmmm. Yes pls Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 TBH, the Dec 6th period also looks familiar with a northern stream storm and southern stream piece. I've heard from Gary before that sometimes storms skip a beat in a different cycle and storms can merge from time to time if the dates are close enough.GFS has 1 storm missing us south 5/6th, then hits SMI good around the 10th fwiw.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 00z GFS...advertising a strong Great Lakes clipper...a little more widespread snow...prob will start a thread for this one tomorrow...FWIW, the accumulating snows keep shifting a little bit farther south each day. Looks like the lakes enhance snowfall also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 GFS has 1 storm missing us south 5/6th, then hits SMI good around the 10th fwiw.. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 00z GFS...advertising a strong Great Lakes clipper...a little more widespread snow...prob will start a thread for this one tomorrow...FWIW, the accumulating snows keep shifting a little bit farther south each day. Looks like the lakes enhance snowfall also.A little more south and I am in business. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 A little more south and I am in business.MI will more than likely see some long fetched lake induced bands coming off the lake, possibly reaching DTW area with this type of set up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 00z GFS still identifying a strong storm on Super Bowl Sunday... @Okwx...now this particular run looks quite similar to the pattern back on Dec 6th...here are the maps from the 00z GFS...notice the Gulf energy and the northern piece merging into one big storm... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_39.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_42.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png Now check out what the pattern looked like back on Dec 6th...notice the northern piece near the Dakotas and southern coming out of TX... http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170126045229.gif http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170126045328.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 00z GGEM...from the Clipper... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017012600/gem_asnow_ncus_27.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 00z GFS still identifying a strong storm on Super Bowl Sunday... @Okwx...now this particular run looks quite similar to the pattern back on Dec 6th...here are the maps from the 00z GFS...notice the Gulf energy and the northern piece merging into one big storm... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_39.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_42.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017012600/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png Now check out what the pattern looked like back on Dec 6th...notice the northern piece near the Dakotas and southern coming out of TX... http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170126045229.gif http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/170126045328.gifThat may be a step or 3 in the right direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 That may be a step or 3 in the right direction.Just read Gary's blog and the Super Bowl storm is related to the Dec 6th-7th system and the maps I posted above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 CFSv2 Weeklies are seeing the beginning of the LRC's cold and stormy pattern beginning Week 2, specifically on Super Bowl weekend.... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAprec.gif http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 00z EPS starting to hone in on the Super Bowl storm... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012600/ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_us_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017012600/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_11.png Due to higher confidence of this system forming, I'm thinking we will be starting a storm thread earlier than usual. Let's see how it trends over the next few days into the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2017 Author Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 00z EPS starting to hone in on the Super Bowl storm... Due to higher confidence of this system forming, I'm thinking we will be starting a storm thread earlier than usual. Let's see how it trends over the next few days into the weekend.I'd still wait until day 6 or maybe even day 7, but a lot can change since this is still a day 10 storm. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 I'd still wait until day 6 or maybe even day 7, but a lot can change since this is still a day 10 storm.Yes, I'm going to see it trends still hold through the weekend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 I like the track so far because the way this winter has gone you know it will be cutting farther north. How far NW is the question and hopefully not too much of a cutter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 26, 2017 Report Share Posted January 26, 2017 Both the GFS/EURO are trying to spit out some sort of over-running snow event for the plains region on GHD. I was anticipating the models to pick up on this and the 12z GFS is starting to show it. Let's see how it evolves as there is a lot of PAC moisture that will be feeding off of the Big PAC system just offshore of the west coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.