December 2016 Observations and Discussion

[East Dubzz]

It's -14 in DBQ, although I think temps are supposed to starting going up after midnight. Wonder how far it'll fall before then.

[VMB443]

The record low here is -11 for the day. Don't think we'll break it. -14 sounds brutal - any wind?

[gosaints]

-24 and -42 wind chill this morning. balmy

[VMB443]

[Tom]

-24 and -42 wind chill this morning. balmy

That'll make you feel alive. Surely won't need coffee to wake you up.

[gosaints]

[Tom]

Down to -5F and feeling alive!  I gotta tell ya, it ain't to bad without the wind.  Love the smell of fire wood in the neighborhood while taking a walk outside and the sound of the crunchy snow on the pavement.  Some minor drift action in the open areas by the park, but other than that, a nice layer of fresh powder and star lit skies.

[Tom]

Hit a low of -13F at ORD which was 1 degree away from tying the Dec 1983 record of -14F.

[NEJeremy]

I saw Aberdeen, SD dropped to -31 on Sunday morning with a wind chill of -57!

[Niko]

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/gifs/2015/201512month.gif

[OKwx2k4]

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/gifs/2015/201512month.gif

Really??!! Those were made a whole year ago. Check dates please.

[jaster220]

Really??!! Those were made a whole year ago. Check dates please.

 

LOLz   (he had me for a moment)

 

SMI had several moist storms and snowfall ranging from 100-150% of normal (115% at mby). I think precip-wise they busted with all that browns over MI. 

[Snowshoe]

Nearly the exact opposite.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp.gif

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/long_lead/gifs/2015/201512month.gif

[Niko]

LOLz   (he had me for a moment)

 

SMI had several moist storms and snowfall ranging from 100-150% of normal (115% at mby). I think precip-wise they busted with all that browns over MI. 

[Niko]

Really??!! Those were made a whole year ago. Check dates please.

hUH.....YEAH REALLY....it was a joke.. Geez!!!!!!!!!!....

[OKwx2k4]

hUH.....YEAH REALLY....it was a joke.. Geez!!!!!!!!!!....

Lol. I'm sorry. Those were just as much of a joke when they were made a year ago as they are now. Haha. Just like the maps the CPC made on November 22 this year for December. Lol. I wonder how they legitimately score themselves each month and still put that crap out.

[Tom]

Bah Humbug!  I'm not to thrilled to have another brown Christmas for the 3rd straight year.  Depending on how the impending warm cutter evolves, the snow pack may hold through Christmas day but most likely will take a huge beating.  This high ratio fluff will get nuked by the warm surge.  Over the past few days, I've been trying to enjoy the scenery around here as much as possible before its gone.  The December Thaw is on it's way....

[gabel23]

Bah Humbug!  I'm not to thrilled to have another brown Christmas for the 3rd straight year.  Depending on how the impending warm cutter evolves, the snow pack may hold through Christmas day but most likely will take a huge beating.  This high ratio fluff will get nuked by the warm surge.  Over the past few days, I've been trying to enjoy the scenery around here as much as possible before its gone.  The December Thaw is on it's way....

We might get to experience severe weather this year.....last year we saw this:

 

 ** Christmas 2015 Weather Recap (Christmas Thunderstorms!):  In terms of weather, last Christmas was by far the most "interesting" one in the Grand Island area since the significant blizzard of 2009. Although most of the day was simply cloudy with a seasonably chilly high temperature of 31°, the evening hours featured a winter rarity as a narrow corridor of thunderstorms developed over the area and dropped a mix of snow, graupel (snow pellets), and freezing rain. Officially, the total snowfall for the day was only 0.6", but the overall-precipitation total of 0.17" was good for the 3rd-wettest Christmas on record! ** 

 

Hopefully by late December and into January we can start to experience some share the wealth storms. One this is for sure, if we can get a negative AO with the next go around in the LRC look out for a lot of us!! 

[BrianJK]

Bah Humbug!  I'm not to thrilled to have another brown Christmas for the 3rd straight year.  Depending on how the impending warm cutter evolves, the snow pack may hold through Christmas day but most likely will take a huge beating.  This high ratio fluff will get nuked by the warm surge.  Over the past few days, I've been trying to enjoy the scenery around here as much as possible before its gone.  The December Thaw is on it's way....

 

I hear ya.  There are very few things I hate more than a snowpack killer in the middle of winter.  I love when the side streets, back roads, and parking lots have a constant layer of snow on them and snow piles continuously grow.  I get it's going to happen early and late in the season, but it pisses the ever-living $hit out of me when it happens Dec-Feb.   One of the reasons I love having a place in the northern woods - they just keep adding to it all season long.  Eventually, I'm going to pull the trigger and spend an entire winter in Houghton.

[Tom]

We might get to experience severe weather this year.....last year we saw this:

 

 ** Christmas 2015 Weather Recap (Christmas Thunderstorms!):  In terms of weather, last Christmas was by far the most "interesting" one in the Grand Island area since the significant blizzard of 2009. Although most of the day was simply cloudy with a seasonably chilly high temperature of 31°, the evening hours featured a winter rarity as a narrow corridor of thunderstorms developed over the area and dropped a mix of snow, graupel (snow pellets), and freezing rain. Officially, the total snowfall for the day was only 0.6", but the overall-precipitation total of 0.17" was good for the 3rd-wettest Christmas on record! ** 

 

Hopefully by late December and into January we can start to experience some share the wealth storms. One this is for sure, if we can get a negative AO with the next go around in the LRC look out for a lot of us!! 

Yup, the pattern will be cycling through by the New Year and ridge is supposed to build up near the Pole.  Both GEFS/EPS starting to do it by Day 8-10.

[gosaints]

up to 41 in la crosse and 35 in rochester.  over achiver today.  decent amount of melt will take place

[CentralNebWeather]

I still have snow on the shaded sides of buildings, trees, but now at 46 so the rest will be gone this afternoon.  Might have shorts and flip flops on Christmas Day.  

[NEJeremy]

Jim is sticking to his guns and still not lowering his total of 40" for Omaha this season. He had a new post yesterday I believe talking about the storms possible on Christmas Day and said he's not changing anything yet. Seems a little optimistic to me considering we're at 2.7" this year so far and he said December was going to be a snowy month here and it doesn't look like any more snow the rest of the month.

[CentralNebWeather]

Jim is sticking to his guns and still not lowering his total of 40" for Omaha this season. He had a new post yesterday I believe talking about the storms possible on Christmas Day and said he's not changing anything yet. Seems a little optimistic to me considering we're at 2.7" this year so far and he said December was going to be a snowy month here and it doesn't look like any more snow the rest of the month.

Going to take quite a few storms for that to occur. 

[Tom]

Surprisingly, not much snow melt today as high cirrus clouds rolled in along with a seasonally low sun angle helped mitigate much melt.  So far, I'm sitting at a high of 28F (forecast was for 31F)...snow cover keeping things cooler.

[BrianJK]

Was surprised to see how much warmer surrounding areas made it to today.  Even warmer way up in Eagle River than it is here.

[Snowshoe]

Hit 41 here. 

[OKwx2k4]

This warm up is a necessary evil for the pattern to reload. Better it happens now than mid-January.

[Niko]

Lol. I'm sorry. Those were just as much of a joke when they were made a year ago as they are now. Haha. Just like the maps the CPC made on November 22 this year for December. Lol. I wonder how they legitimately score themselves each month and still put that crap out.

The part that is not a joke is that a lot of my snowpack might take a huge beating in the coming days. Warmer temps are coming and rain in my forecast for Christmas Day, out of all days, it chose that day. Hopefully, my snowpack can hold through the weekend.

[OKwx2k4]

The part that is not a joke is that a lot of my snowpack might take a huge beating in the coming days. Warmer temps are coming and rain in my forecast for Christmas Day, out of all days, it chose that day. Hopefully, my snowpack can hold through the weekend.

Yup. Gonna be a rough 10 days or so.

[BrianJK]

Pretty sure the majority of us will be left with bare ground by this time next week. Blah...

[Tom]

Both GFS/GGEM have an open wave that lays down 2-4" for parts of the Midwest/Lakes Friday night into Christmas Eve.

[james1976]

Both GFS/GGEM have an open wave that lays down 2-4" for parts of the Midwest/Lakes Friday night into Christmas Eve.

Yeah where did that come from?

[Grizzcoat]

It's been on most models for sometime-- just lost it -- now picking it back up. Most people unaware.

[james1976]

GFS still looking good for Friday. Storm thread?

[james1976]

DMX is saying Euro was first to pick up on it with Monday night's run.

[jaster220]

Anyone getting flakes from this? Appears a bit south of progs??

 

 

[gosaints]

It's been on most models for sometime-- just lost it -- now picking it back up. Most people unaware.

Ya its been there.  Been trending slightly wetter and north.   Also looks as the precip type issues will occur.

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2016122112/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

12z GFS...

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016122112/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[jaster220]

:D

 

So, we push the "snow cover reset button" right after logging our 1st White Christmas in 3 yrs, it's the WX what can you do??