December 2016 Observations and Discussion

[jaster220]

Wow, that is some insane snowfall rates from the EC storm yesterday!  4-6"+/hr

 

 

And that wasn't LES fluff either, but low ratio fatties stacking. Would love to get in on some of that but not too likely without traveling elsewhere. Totals range upwards of 24-30" in parts of NH and ME. That'd be nice to see basically overnight.    I don't ever remember seeing this out east before either! Avalanche warning??

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Avalanche warnings?!?! Lol. I don't know that I've ever seen that up there before either.

[jaster220]

Yeah, it's the UP (Calumet area), but very much what my world was like for weeks on end in the record snowy mid 90's across NMI   ..and another clipper tonight on top of the 8-10" since yesterday around APX's favored belts. When it piles on, it piles on up there non-stop. It's fantastic if you can deal with the shortness of the warm season. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

http://media.mlive.com/weather_impact/photo/storm-tracks-comparedjpg-ddfc465de8c626f1.jpg

[Niko]

That red and or blue colors are my favorite tracks for SEMI. Now, can we get a track like this????!!!

[jaster220]

 

That red and or blue colors are my favorite tracks for SEMI. Now, can we get a track like this????!!!

 

I like the map, but '67 didn't track like that, '78 did. They were two different style of storms. Not sure who made that map, but WGN/Skilling has shown '67 several times and it wasn't like that.

[westMJim]

That red and or blue colors are my favorite tracks for SEMI. Now, can we get a track like this????!!!

 

I like the map, but '67 didn't track like that, '78 did. They were two different style of storms. Not sure who made that map, but WGN/Skilling has shown '67 several times and it wasn't like that.

Here is a little history on the 1967 storm this also has maps of the storm track

  http://www.weather.gov/lot/67blizzard

and here is some info on the Michigan side of the lake

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/01/michigans_1967_blizzard_storie.html#0

[hlcater]

"Blizzard of 2016"???????????????????????? Isn't it wayyyy to early to start tossing out the B-word like that? Not really sure who's graphic that is, but it seems like I would've waited 4 or 5 days before even saying anything at all.

[Niko]

That red and or blue colors are my favorite tracks for SEMI. Now, can we get a track like this????!!!

 

I like the map, but '67 didn't track like that, '78 did. They were two different style of storms. Not sure who made that map, but WGN/Skilling has shown '67 several times and it wasn't like that.

We need a track like that. That would clobber our region.

[Niko]

Here is a little history on the 1967 storm this also has maps of the storm track

  http://www.weather.gov/lot/67blizzard

and here is some info on the Michigan side of the lake

http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/01/michigans_1967_blizzard_storie.html#0

I think the 67 track would be a snow to rain scenario for my area, whereas the 78 track is an ideal storm track.

 

Btw:......awesome pics of the 67 blizzard.

[jaster220]

"Blizzard of 2016"???????????????????????? Isn't it wayyyy to early to start tossing out the B-word like that? Not really sure who's graphic that is, but it seems like I would've waited 4 or 5 days before even saying anything at all.

That's referring to last winter's massive bliz in the Mid-Atl & S New England. El Nino always must deliver them one of those while we roast up north - freak wx pattern.

[jaster220]

I think the 67 track would be a snow to rain scenario for my area, whereas the 78 track is an ideal storm track.

 

Btw:......awesome pics of the 67 blizzard.

 

'67 gave Detroit some wicked ice and perhaps some rain too? '78 actually started as rain in extreme SEMI before cold air got sucked into the storm and flipped it to snow.

[hlcater]

That's referring to last winter's massive bliz in the Mid-Atl & S New England. El Nino always must deliver them one of those while we roast up north - freak wx pattern.

ohhh yeaaaaaaaaa, that one, um yea, ok nevermind

[Tom]

December in review was a rather drier month for the Midwest and central/southern Plains...the northern tier was active and wetter.

 

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPDeptUS.png

 

 

The northern Rockies into the Dakotas was down right frigid and bled SE but hit a big road block once it hit the Midwest/OV and southern Plains.

 

http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

[Tom]

Correction, after looking at the correct maps...CFSv2 did generally depict the above normal trend in precip for the northern tier but was a little to warm for temps in the Rockies and 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201612.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201612.gif

[Hawkeye]

Those CFS monthly precip forecasts can be somewhat consistent for some areas, but other areas go wet, dry, wet, dry, wet, dry, from day to day.

[Tom]

Those CFS monthly precip forecasts can be somewhat consistent for some areas, but other areas go wet, dry, wet, dry, wet, dry, from day to day.

True, and the only consistently wetter region on those maps were the Upper Midwest/Rockies and that is what happened.

[Niko]

I have to point out that December for my area was pretty decent, snowfallwise. I ended up with above normal snowfall and slightly below normal to near normal temps. Managed to get somewhere between 15.0 to 16.0 inches in total snowfall for the month of December. Not too shabby. I believe my average snowfall for December is somewhere around 9 or 10".

[Niko]

@ Jaster

 

What is the total snowfall for SEMI in the month of December? 9 to 10", give or take, right?

[jaster220]

@ Jaster

 

What is the total snowfall for SEMI in the month of December? 9 to 10", give or take, right?

 

Not sure tbh, I'm not a stats guy. But this is pretty accurate thru Saturday, just sad I can be so above normal and staring at bare ground all the same..

 

 

[Niko]

Not sure tbh, I'm not a stats guy. But this is pretty accurate thru Saturday, just sad I can be so above normal and staring at bare ground all the same..

 

20161231 MRCC Snowfall departures thru Dec.png

I know what ya mean. My forecast stays dry all week with bitter cold air coming. My highs are projected to remain in the teens and lows in the single digits. A few low 20s for highs are also forecasted. Ugh!  Bare ground + frigid air = a big no-no.

[Niko]

@ Jaster:

 

Here ya go: Statistics for SEMI

 

https://snowfall.weatherdb.com/l/15417/Macomb-Michigan#Monthly%20Snowfall&s=1BUNMH

[mlgamer]

Stats for those who like them.

 

Here in Topeka we had 3.1 inches of snow in December. Normal is 4.6 over the past 20 years. Temp anomaly was -1.4F below normal.

 

Topeka has had back loaded winters since 2010 so maybe the best is yet to come.

 

2010-2016 Topeka total snowfall:

 

Dec 16.1" (12%)

Jan 32.5" (24%)

Feb 66.7" (48%)

Mar 22.3" (16%)

 

December has been the least snowiest month. January has had twice as much as December and February twice as much as January. Even March has had more snow than December. So there you go.

[jaster220]

http://media.mlive.com/weather_impact/photo/storm-tracks-comparedjpg-ddfc465de8c626f1.jpg

 

Last Feb's storm took a great track, but was lacking true cold air so it was a marginal wet snowstorm even in the best hit areas (Michiana). Was like an early season (Nov) NMI storm tbh. It had the track, strength, and moisture to have been an 18" Big Dog, but ended up a 6-12" storm for most. Track is only part of the equation.

 

http://www.weather.gov/iwx/2016022425_snow

[Niko]

When was the last time we had a blue track like the map above?! Thats an ideal track. Tbh, give me a track like that one that paralyzes SMI and call it a day. Afterwards, you can bring Spring.

[OKwx2k4]

When was the last time we had a blue track like the map above?! Thats an ideal track. Tbh, give me a track like that one that paralyzes SMI and call it a day. Afterwards, you can bring Spring.

That has my vote. Those are my best snowstorms down here.

[Niko]

That has my vote. Those are my best snowstorms down here.

Did you have a snowstorm this winter yet?!

[OKwx2k4]

Did you have a snowstorm this winter yet?!

Not really a snowstorm. Just a little disturbance that moved through back around the 7th or so of this month. Picked up around 1". I've sort of lost interest since so couldn't tell you the day for sure.

[Niko]

Not really a snowstorm. Just a little disturbance that moved through back around the 7th or so of this month. Picked up around 1". I've sort of lost interest since so couldn't tell you the day for sure.

Things should get more active in February, so I feel confident that you will get some snow. Definitely more than January standards.

[OKwx2k4]

Things should get more active in February, so I feel confident that you will get some snow. Definitely more than January standards.

If the LRC holds up I have around 2 chances for a little bit of snow. One near the 15th of February and one around March 3rd. Quick spring after that though.

[Niko]

If the LRC holds up I have around 2 chances for a little bit of snow. One near the 15th of February and one around March 3rd. Quick spring after that though.

Good luck there....February has a chance!