December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Loving the GFS tonight BUT I still think that the 18z is a fat bastard!

[luvssnow_spokane]

GFS trended TOWARD the Euro a bit

Quite a bit actually. Nice run!

[BLI snowman]

I think it's all going to come down to precipitation intensity. I forget what year it was but I think January 2000. I remember going to school and the weather man said 1000 foot snow levels as showers swirl in from the Pacific. It started snowing right when school started and wouldnt stop until after lunch time I think. I think we got a few inches or possibly more. I went home that day watched the news and the weather man showed the perfect heavy precip sit over PDX for several hours dropping the snow level to the Valley Floor. I'll always remember that.

 

That was January 11, 2000. Portland area got a widespread wet 2-3" out of that, does seem like a good comparison.

[FroYoBro]

My brother was at U of O law. He lived in the hills in the southern part of town. Had about 10" and lots of trees and branches down... As a side note, what was your favorite bar in Eugene and PLEASE do not say Taylor's. 

 

We lost a tree in the backyard of the house we were renting. 

 

 

Hmmmmm. Probably Taylor's. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That was January 11, 2000. Portland area got a widespread wet 2-3" out of that, does seem like a good comparison.

 

January 11 or December 11th? I remember the Salem area getting a good 2-4" on 12/11/00

[Jesse]

I think PDX was sitting in the upper 30s while that was happening. Unusual event to say the least. I tried to enjoy it while watching the UO webcams, such is the life of a snow deprived weather nut.

PDX got snow with that event too. They were 32F with snow by late that evening. We had a solid 1.5-2" in Vancouver at the time.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/2012/3/21/DailyHistory.html

[Perturbed Member]

GFS warms up the surface in quite a hurry for the Thursday system, starts as snow and transitions to rain fairly quickly. Still better than the 18z though which had PDX at +6c 850mb really fast. 

 

Hopefully the overrunning event is a bit more fun than modeled. 

[Deweydog]

Nice. I'm not used to seeing you this bullish.

Heavy precip, low thicknesses, and hopefully calm winds. Good timing too with precip starting early a.m.

 

Winds look to be the biggest question. If see our typically southerly breezes it'll be a lot tougher battle.

[BLI snowman]

January 11 or December 11th? I remember the Salem area getting a good 2-4" on 12/11/00

 

January 11.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KVUO/2000/1/11/DailyHistory.html

 

That was from an ana-front setup with a good period of heavy precip and calm gradients that dropped the snow levels in an otherwise meh airmass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We lost a tree in the backyard of the house we were renting. 

 

 

Hmmmmm. Probably Taylor's. 

 

Oh ** must have been an undergrad. I spend a lot of time in Eugene, my fiancee is from there, we usually hit up Starlight and Horsehead. The Wayward Lamb is the new g a y bar in town and it is actually my personal favorite. 

[FroYoBro]

Oh ** must have been an undergrad. I spend a lot of time in Eugene, my fiancee is from there, we usually hit up Starlight and Horsehead. The Wayward Lamb is the new g a y bar in town and it is actually my personal favorite. 

 

I was actually joking. I really disliked Taylor's. I was a really poor college student, so I didn't go out to bars that often. More like cheap beer at parties. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

January 11.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KVUO/2000/1/11/DailyHistory.html

 

That was from an ana-front setup with a good period of heavy precip and calm gradients that dropped the snow levels in an otherwise meh airmass.

 

I think I remember that. Down in Silverton it snowed all day, but we just had a dusting if I remember correctly. I'm sure areas with elevation down here did well.

[Jesse]

GFS warms up the surface in quite a hurry for the Thursday system, starts as snow and transitions to rain fairly quickly. Still better than the 18z though which had PDX at +6c 850mb really fast. 

 

Hopefully the overrunning event is a bit more fun than modeled. 

 

I wouldn't worry too much about the details of the transition event at this point. Can't ask for much more than the snow chances/cold shot early in the week looking a bit sturdier and a gradual trend toward cooler the 12Z EURO and GEM for this run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was actually joking. I really disliked Taylor's. I was a really poor college student, so I didn't go out to bars that often. More like cheap beer at parties. 

 

I hear ya. 

[Perturbed Member]

PDX got snow with that event too. They were 32F with snow by late that evening. We had a solid 1.5-2" in Vancouver at the time.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPDX/2012/3/21/DailyHistory.html

 

We got screwed in the west metro, I don't think we saw any accumulation. 

[Deweydog]

With any luck, Tuesday could be a pretty cold day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM looks good!

[Perturbed Member]

I wouldn't worry too much about the details of the transition event at this point. Can't ask for much more than the snow chances/cold shot early in the week looking a bit sturdier and a gradual trend toward cooler the 12Z EURO and GEM for this run.

 

Yeah yeah, its just my snow greed

[Deweydog]

GEM looks good!

You serious, Clark?

[BLI snowman]

Canadian a bit colder than 12z, decent shot of snow on Monday for Portland.

[Jesse]

Canadian a bit colder than 12z, decent shot of snow on Monday for Portland.

 

The trend is our friend!

[FroYoBro]

What is a good link for the Canadian?

[chopper 918]

That little guy for Monday looks like fun too. I'm starting to like the idea of 2-3 inches if precip is as heavy as progged. At least for areas with a tiny bit of elevation.

 

Yes and it looks to come in during the pre dawn hours, which is never a bad thing.

[Deweydog]

What is a good link for the Canadian?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016012112&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=119

[Jesse]

What is a good link for the Canadian?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justin_Trudeau

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Shades of 1/5/93?? I wish....

[bainbridgekid]

Canadian a bit colder than 12z, decent shot of snow on Monday for Portland.

Completely dry NE of the low though, unlike the GFS and Euro. Basically bone dry Monday North of Olympia at face value.

 

Still think convergence between the colder air and the Southerly flow should create enough dynamics for moisture up here.

 

The overrunning thing Thursday looks beefy on the Canadian though. The low pulls back to the NW keeping offshore flow going longer.

[Jesse]

Shades of 1/5/93?? I wish....

 

Followed by a January 1993 repeat for all of December and a December 1992 repeat for all of January.

[BLI snowman]

Completely dry NE of the low though, unlike the GFS and Euro. Basically bone dry Monday North of Olympia at face value.

 

Still think convergence between the colder air and the Southerly flow should create enough dynamics for moisture up here.

 

Yeah, models will simply not handle that well at all at this stage in an event. The airmass trajectory is such that it should be a good bet though.

[BLI snowman]

Overrunning event looks good for Seattle on the GEM. Pretty solid snowstorm, more of a mix for Portland.

[FroYoBro]

Overrunning event looks good for Seattle on the GEM. Pretty solid snowstorm, more of a mix for Portland.

 

Good thing we don't really have to start paying attention to the details of that event for a couple of days. 

[bainbridgekid]

Overrunning event looks good for Seattle on the GEM. Pretty solid snowstorm, more of a mix for Portland.

The low never actually makes it onshore which keeps the offshore flow going longer. 'Twould be a beauty.

 

 

[Jesse]

Good thing we don't really have to start paying attention to the details of that event for a couple of days.

Gotta get the cold air in here first!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Just in time (I hope). If this falls through I guess I can only blame myself:

 

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3677_zpskp9cokr1.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Followed by a January 1993 repeat for all of December and a December 1992 repeat for all of January.

 

Top 5 snowfall winter at SLE dating back to 1892...

[Gradient Keeper]

I'm sorry you had such a scary experience, I've had a similar experience with a family member before. I know how disturbing it can be. I'm glad she is doing better though. 

Very scary I can relate. I hope your family member recovered from that is okay. Still shaken up a lot. She is doing much better. Thanks.

 

I'm so sorry to here that DJ Droppin. You're a great son for taking care of your mom. I hope your mom has a fast recovery. I hope your mom loves snow as much as you do so if we can get some it will help her recovery.

Thanks. Since my Father passed my Brother and I try to go above and beyond..... and now even more. She likes snow to an extent. Thanks for your thoughts

 

Sorry to hear. Glad she is feeling a bit better now.

Thanks very much

 

God dude I am so sorry. Good thing you were there to help. If you aren't currently certified you should think about taking a first aid CPR class. Sometimes you save someone in a situation like that and they live 20 more years. 

Andrew is was horrifying. I think I should really consider CPR class. Thanks a lot.

 

Oh man that is super scary and difficult thing to go through and I am so sorry. I have been through just such a thing and I know the feeling the imagery it leaves behind. *bro hugs* 

It is something we hope no one has to experience or witness..... thanks

 

 

 

Hey looked at 00z GEM arctic trough almost digs over us. Models seem to be trending a touch colder past few runs. I like that. Ummm I see PDX-DLS -12mb on GEM as moisture arrives. I see arctic blast Gorge east. Block almost holds and reorganizes it was real close to being prolonged blast if you ask me.

[IbrChris]

I'd say it was close enough. When you're debating over a small fraction of a degree, I think it's pretty much pointless.

 

Some of us just want to know if it's safe to plant the tomato starts.

[Gradient Keeper]

Just in time (I hope). If this falls through I guess I can only blame myself:

 

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3677_zpskp9cokr1.jpg

You are very lucky to have one

[TT-SEA]

Still looks like there could be a dump of heavy snow at my location early on Sunday morning on the back side of the main precip band slipping south.  

[stuffradio]

Some of us just want to know if it's safe to plant the tomato starts.

Some of us wait until February.