December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Just read a cool article about the "mother of all convergence zones" that occurred back on December 18, 1990 and dropped a foot of snow in Seattle, with thundersnow to boot.

 

That would have been fun! 

 

http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/snow/the-mother-of-all-convergence-zones/

I was lucky enough to have been living in the right place when that happened. Very memorable event! A few days later it dropped to zero at my place.

[TT-SEA]

Not looking good for the snow threat late in the week. The low tracks less favorably to advect cold air before the precip really sets in. Just doesn't have the right look. There could be a little bit here and there, but anything great is looking doubtful.

 

The end of the month continues to have good potential according the ECMWF suite of models. The 12z GFs ensemble was good too.

 

850mb temp of -6C and 925 temp of -1C with what appears to be a deformation zone with flat gradients on Friday afternoon and evening might do the trick.

[snow_wizard]

52 in the swamp...

Thank God it's colder here than where you live. I had a 47-30 high / low today.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Forget the models and indices, wild hairs and gut feelings....it will snow this weekend, and I will tell you why I know that as fact...

 

You know how it always seems to rain after you wash your car?  Well I "de-crudded" my car and garage today.  I rinsed the garage floor to get rid of the remnants of all the melted slush from my car, and I busted out the power washer to clean all the cracks/crevices and underside of the car from all the crap they put on the roads.

 

I have a white car now (haven't had a white car in over 20 years) and I could not stand the filth any more...

 

So anyway, there you have it!  You can thank me later!

 

   

[TT-SEA]

Forget the models and indices, wild hairs and gut feelings....it will snow this weekend, and I will tell you why I know that as fact...

 

You know how it always seems to rain after you wash your car?  Well I "de-crudded" my car and garage today.  I rinsed the garage floor to get rid of the remnants of all the melted slush from my car, and I busted out the power washer to clean all the cracks/crevices and underside of the car from all the crap they put on the roads.

 

I have a white car now (haven't had a white car in over 20 years) and I could not stand the filth any more...

 

So anyway, there you have it!  You can thank me later!

 

   

 

 

Washed our white car yesterday... it had become brown with road sand and grime.

 

Told my mom that it might snow up there on Friday and she said "they just cleaned the streets... please no more snow."    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE was 33/28 today.

[TT-SEA]

Thank God it's colder here than where you live. I had a 47-30 high / low today.

Thank God for a high of 47 vs 52?

 

I could see thanking God for a high of 32 vs 45 when you have snow on the ground thus saving your snow cover.

 

But thank God for 47 vs 52 when you have green grass?

[ShawniganLake]

That's not from today is it?

 

I had hernia surgery a few years ago. Not fun.

No I took those pics last week. Probably about 2-4" left here now.

 

This was my second hernia surgery. The next few days won't be much fun. I was supposed to have the surgery on the 12th but took an opportunity to delay it until today. I didn't want to be laid up and unable to enjoy last weeks snow and cold.

[Bryant]

Thank God? For a high of 47 vs 52?

 

I could see thanking God for a high of 32 vs 45 when you have snow on the ground thus saving your snow cover.

 

But thank God for 47 vs 52 when you have green grass?

You know he loves cold anomalies, regardless of snow cover

[Trainwreck]

Thank God for a high of 47 vs 52?

 

I could see thanking God for a high of 32 vs 45 when you have snow on the ground thus saving your snow cover.

 

But thank God for 47 vs 52 when you have green grass?

Just can't leave him alone can you? It's so annoying reading post after post and then Tim chimes in with a weird Jim fascination quirk post. I bet you have pics of jim on your bedroom wall.

[snow_wizard]

No I took those pics last week. Probably about 2-4" left here now.

 

This was my second hernia surgery. The next few days won't be much fun. I was supposed to have the surgery on the 12th but took an opportunity to delay it until today. I didn't want to be laid up and unable to enjoy last weeks snow and cold.

Is it the same hernia reinjured or is it the other side? I got the mesh put in so hopefully it will hold forever.

[Bryant]

I bet you have pics of jim on your bedroom wall.

This might be a new one

[liquidsnow]

NAM is less juicy.

[ShawniganLake]

Is it the same hernia reinjured or is it the other side? I got the mesh put in so hopefully it will hold forever.

Other side. Lucky me. Yes, both mesh repaired so reinjury is highly unlikely.

[snow_wizard]

As for the cut off low that causes the GFS to look like something my cat threw up after day 10...the ECMWF ensemble is and has been adamant the GFS is totally mishandling that. The ECMWF operational and ensemble control models agree with the ensemble. They all rotate the cutoff low to where it ends up underneath the offshore block. A nice outcome if true. In fact the control model show an all out blast in the 10 to 15 day period.

[TT-SEA]

Just can't leave him alone can you? It's so annoying reading post after post and then Tim chimes in with a weird Jim fascination quirk post. I bet you have pics of jim on your bedroom wall.

 

I also said that it might snow on Friday.   

[TT-SEA]

Sun angles at 18-19° result in color temps at about 3900, which gives a pronounced orange hue to things. At 25-30° it's between 4200-4700, and are shades gold. Over 40° and the magic is lost. Low sun angles add for longer twilights, golden hours, and longer shadows.

 

You are really into sun angle.  

[EA_TTD]

Tim chimes in with a weird Jim fascination quirk post. I bet you have pics of jim on your bedroom wall.

​"No I took those pics last week."

 

Seeing these posts back-to-back (ugh) made the mod-preview alarm go off.

[Bryant]

​"No I took those pics last week."

 

Seeing these posts back-to-back (ugh) made the mod-preview alarm go off.

Won't happen unfortunately. No one gives a sh*t about moderation around here

[BLI snowman]

Won't happen. No one gives a sh*t about moderation around here

When it comes to arctic airmasses I'm all about a lack of moderation. LOL!!

[Bryant]

When it comes to arctic airmasses I'm all about a lack of moderation. LOL!!

Lol, had a good laugh from that. Very true, very true

[Bryant]

Busy on here tonight!

[Tyler Mode]

27/35 here.  Fog never cleared.  Plenty of pictures from people at 500' in pure sun from start to finish today.

I'll take the fog at this point, sure helped keep a nice negative departure for the day.

[Kayla]

Busy on here tonight!

 

Is it January 3rd yet??

[van city]

Is it January 3rd yet??

Not yet, go back to sleep.

[Heavy Snow]

What could have been if we were just a bit colder to begin with. Most everybody would be seeing Snow and a White Christmas. It would have been an unbelievable way to cap off the month as we head into the New Year. Instead we are left with cold rain.

[Kayla]

What could have been if we were just a bit colder to begin with. Most everybody would be seeing Snow and a White Christmas. It would have been an unbelievable way to cap off the month as we head into the New Year. Instead we are left with cold rain.

 

What's actually somewhat entertaining is the 00z GFS shows a dusting around the Portland area Christmas morning.

 

Not likely to verify but interesting nonetheless!

[Bryant]

What could have been if we were just a bit colder to begin with. Most everybody would be seeing Snow and a White Christmas. It would have been an unbelievable way to cap off the month as we head into the New Year. Instead we are left with cold rain.

Not sure why people where expecting much to begin with

[Deweydog]

That's like a summer heat pattern next week. Cutoff low pumping up a heat ridge downstream.

 

Keep in mind most heatwaves are followed by a cool down. Intriguing...

[TT-SEA]

That's like a summer heat pattern next week. Cutoff low pumping up a heat ridge downstream.

 

Keep in mind most heatwaves are followed by a cool down. Intriguing...

 

Cut off low season off course, Matt... what do you expect?  

[Deweydog]

Cut off low season off course, Matt... what do you expect?

New Year's Day is the new April Fool's Day!

[luvssnow_spokane]

00z 

[Heavy Snow]

What's actually somewhat entertaining is the 00z GFS shows a dusting around the Portland area Christmas morning.

 

Not likely to verify but interesting nonetheless!

 

Looks similar to this past Saturday. Maybe a Christmas day surprise!

[seattleweatherguy]

Chances of seattle snow still there?

[Heavy Snow]

Not sure why people where expecting much to begin with

 

I wasn't expecting much but I realized from the get go we were going to be a tad too much on the warm side. The L takes a perfect track too and colder air comes in behind it much like last week but it would of been more widespread for everybody to see Snow.

[MossMan]

Wow the 0z GFS and GEM must have really sucked with nobody talking about it except a single sad face.

[snow_wizard]

What could have been if we were just a bit colder to begin with. Most everybody would be seeing Snow and a White Christmas. It would have been an unbelievable way to cap off the month as we head into the New Year. Instead we are left with cold rain.

 

Yeah...just not enough cold air with this.  Still a chance the Seattle area could see a little bit if convergence keeps precip going long enough.

 

Looks like we may have to wait until around New Years when the more serious cold pattern sets up.

[snow_wizard]

Chances of seattle snow still there?

 

It's there, but not looking as good as earlier runs.

[snow_wizard]

That's like a summer heat pattern next week. Cutoff low pumping up a heat ridge downstream.

 

Keep in mind most heatwaves are followed by a cool down. Intriguing...

 

The Euro has handled the cutoff low completely differently.  The GFS has overblown that feature many times this season.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure why people where expecting much to begin with

 

Runs as recent as 36 hours ago showed a very real snow threat for Seattle.  Some of the favorable details have changed though.