December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

Calm down. I just asked for you to be banned so others can enjoy their snow.

 

Children.... All he did was post a model run. lol

[TT-SEA]

That doesn't surprise me.  I bet it looks way different.

 

Should I post every single frame of the ECMWF?

 

Through 4 p.m.,

 

 

 

4 p.m. through 10 p.m.

 

 

 

10 p.m. through 4 a.m.

 

 

 

4 a.m. through 10 a.m.

 

 

 

10 a.m. through 4 p.m.

 

[Farmboy]

From where??  

O ye of little faith....

[luvssnow_spokane]

Total snow through tomorrow evening per the new 12Z ECMWF.    Way less for the Seattle area than the 00Z run showed.

 

 

Big old Screw you zone right over me. Again!! this is getting really pathetic... <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_unsure.png" alt=":unsure:">

 

Besides that... Merry Christmas everyone!!!      I have a ton to be thankful for but getting left out of snow for so long and these last minute changes with no real accumulating snow since 2012 other than a trace is a total heartbreaker. I am so happy for those of you who get to enjoy it today!!! I am taking a break for awhile to enjoy Christmas.  Maybe things will happen here in mid to late January... maybe not.   

[TT-SEA]

Oh here comes the inevitable denial part. Knew it was only a matter of time.

 

 

 

OK - I'm done. Made my point. Glad to see lots of people seeing snow! Nice to see things break our way for once when it comes to marginal situations. 

 

 

I am very happy that people are seeing snow.   

 

And I am disappointed in the models shifting this morning.

 

Its both.   No big deal.   Both are happening.  

[The Swamp]

Yeah that's the only thing that would concern me at the moment.

I know I've been critical of Jim lately but I think he's right. We should have some good things on our plate the rest of the winter.

[Phil]

Big old Screw you zone right over me. Again!! this is getting really pathetic... <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_unsure.png" alt=":unsure:">

 

Besides that... Merry Christmas everyone!!! I have a ton to be thankful for but getting left out of snow for so long and these last minute changes with no real accumulating snow since 2012 other than a trace is a total heartbreaker. I am so happy for those of you who get to enjoy it today!!! I am taking a break for awhile to enjoy Christmas. Maybe things will happen here in mid to late January... maybe not.

Is the bolded actually true?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now I think we need to watch the potential of some kind of back door blast in the January 1-4 timeframe...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Far Eastern Oregon is doing pretty well with snow today...

[MossMan]

Right now I think we need to watch the potential of some kind of back door blast in the January 1-4 timeframe...

I would prefer front door action up here.

[The Swamp]

Big old Screw you zone right over me. Again!! this is getting really pathetic... <_ src="%7B___base_url___%7D/uploads/emoticons/default_unsure.png" alt=":unsure:">

 

Besides that... Merry Christmas everyone!!! I have a ton to be thankful for but getting left out of snow for so long and these last minute changes with no real accumulating snow since 2012 other than a trace is a total heartbreaker. I am so happy for those of you who get to enjoy it today!!! I am taking a break for awhile to enjoy Christmas. Maybe things will happen here in mid to late January... maybe not.

A really strong arctic front that doesn't fall apart or a deep cold pool with a weak over running system. That's what you need. Anything else and we get screwed in marginal set ups.

[MossMan]

An inch in Snohomish and sticking to roads.

Closing in on an inch up here at Warm Beach as well!

[TT-SEA]

You sound exactly like the guy you constantly berate for hyping these things up. If this were happening outside the holiday season I doubt you'd be so optimistic. Support for significant snowfall is incredibly weak, we have onshore flow and suboptimal surface temperatures when the moisture is available.

 

 

Yesterday this is what I heard.    Models looked great.     I was optimistic.

 

Now they don't look nearly as good for the Seattle area and the event is actually unfolding.

 

Now I get this despite showing the exact same models.   Just reporting what they show.

 

It's a Christmas miracle! Now hurry - go find another model that shows no snow for your location and be sure to post it!!

 

[The Swamp]

At nearly 43, it doesn't bum me out nearly as much as it used too.

 

I do really want a blast and dump though.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Is the bolded actually true?

Yes.. very true.

[MossMan]

At nearly 43, it doesn't bum me out nearly as much as it used too.

 

I do really want a blast and dump though.

Sounds like some back door action coming the fist part of January!! Better prepare!

[Timmy Supercell]

Sudden burst of strong gusts after a period of relative calmness. Sun peeking out now.

 

Darn, another day I could be recording these with my own equipment.

[Winterdog]

At nearly 43, it doesn't bum me out nearly as much as it used too.

 

I do really want a blast and dump though.

Eeeeew.

[TT-SEA]

Barkley live camera goes down just when its fun to watch the action there.  

[TT-SEA]

I want to hear from Bryant this morning... I am sure his area is getting pounded as I mentioned earlier.

 

Here is the same cam I posted this morning which is closest to his location.   And its even snowing harder now.

 

[Phil]

Yes.. very true.

Lordy. Might want to consider moving..I'd have been outta there awhile ago.

[Phil]

Eeeeew.

[The Swamp]

Eeeeew.

I knew you'd enjoy that.

[Deweydog]

45 at PDX???

 

Would be kinda funny if they exceeded yesterday's Throwback Thursday (2014 through November 2016) 46 degree apparition.

[TT-SEA]

45 at PDX???

 

Would be kinda funny if they exceeded yesterday's Throwback Thursday (2014 through November 2016) 46 degree apparition.

 

 

Is there a low right over PDX?     Trying to see the center of circulation on the wide radar image of the PNW.

[Deweydog]

Is there a low right over PDX? Trying to see the center of circulation on the wide radar image of the PNW.

Must be. Lots of widespread reports of depression and suicidal thoughts.

[Deweydog]

Hour 240 of the Euro looks like it was drawn freehand by Michael J. Fox.

[TT-SEA]

Radar shows some back-filling south of Oympia the past few frames.

 

 

That is why I was asking about the a possible low over PDX... precip should back around that low as it moves NE.   If there really is a center of low pressure there.

[TT-SEA]

Radar echoes definitely taking on an arc shape south of Olympia.  

[Kayla]

I actually like the look of the cloud enhancement coming in off the north coast for the PDX area for later this afternoon. 925's are nearing 0c but offshore flow is basically null at this point. Will be interesting to see how much moisture we can hang onto going into this evening as the offshore gradients increase.

[Kayla]

That is why I was asking about the a possible low over PDX... precip should back around that low as it moves NE.   If there really is a center of low pressure there.

 

Looks like there is a low circulation just SW of PDX currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil, any thoughts on today's disastrous EURO run? 

[Skagit Weather]

An optimistic 3/4" here although it's definitely snowed more than that. At 33F it's almost melting as fast as it's falling, but it is beautiful outside. I was a little behind putting up Christmas lights and putting them up in the snow is wonderful.

[MossMan]

Leaving Warm Beach now where it's still light snow with about an inch on non paved surfaces. Interested to see what it's like at my house!

[TT-SEA]

An optimistic 3/4" here although it's definitely snowed more than that. At 33F it's almost melting as fast as it's falling, but it is beautiful outside. I was a little behind putting up Christmas lights and putting them up in the snow is wonderful.

 

 

That is awesome.

[TT-SEA]

I'm thinking it's somewhere right in that area, based off radar/satellite. Certainly looks like a band on the NW side of it setting up from Snohomish county over Kitsap and arching down around Olympia. Hard to tell though.

 

Actually looks about where the 12z NAM showed it, if I'm looking at it right.

 

 

That is what I was thinking as well. 

[TT-SEA]

Coastal radar is increasing my hopes now for King County.

[Phil]

Phil, any thoughts on today's disastrous EURO run?

My thoughts are, rely more on the ensemble means, and ignore clown range operational runs. The upcoming pattern progression will be challenging for the modeling, and I anticipate a more classic Niña/EPO conduit to -NAM.

[MossMan]

Lake Goodwin dumping snow, roads white, almost 2" so far!

[Farmboy]

It has changed over to mostly snow here in the Fairwood area of Renton at 435 feet...  Not sticking yet, Temp around 36....  You can really see healthy radar echoes now popping up over SW WA/Oregon coast poised to swing through here later today...