December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still looks easily more impressive than any front so far this winter. 

 

There WILL be surprises.

 

Like the Portland NWS WAA verifying?

[Kayla]

Euro is definitely colder at PDX than the 00z through 120 hours.

 

Mon - 31/26

Tue - 28/22

Wed - 25/19

Thur - 26/17

[Front Ranger]

Cutoff low is a bit stronger and closer at day 5. Ridge looks reluctant to tilt, though it's still holding pretty strong.

[snow_wizard]

Looks about right. Kinda what I have been anticipating. At least we will have a few cold days. Been fun!

 

It's going to snow at your house.

[HighlandExperience]

Reports of light snow in Olympia

[luvssnow_spokane]

Still looks easily more impressive than any front so far this winter. 

 

There WILL be surprises.

Yeah... Convergence zones, lots of people seeing snow above freezing and some seeing a trace to an inch.. SURPRISE!!!!!! 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's going to snow at your house.

Of course.. is shows a trace to inch. That will melt. I can't wait!

[FroYoBro]

Portland may actually have more impressive highs with this pattern. They won't get as cold at night though. Pretty impressive low level cold pouring through the Gorge. 

[Front Ranger]

Like the Portland NWS WAA verifying?

 

That's a good name for it.

 

Anything is possible!

[Deweydog]

Cutoff low is a bit stronger and closer at day 5. Ridge looks reluctant to tilt, though it's still holding pretty strong.

It's tilting alright...

[FroYoBro]

It also seems that the 12z Euro has gotten rid of the idea of possibly an earlier transition event mid week. Don't see any lows. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good news!! Friday shows better potential than the previous run!! ...baby steps. #warningshot36  it is 6 days away. 

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In King County you should be willing to spend at least 500K to buy a decent home. On the East Side probably at least 650K. 

 

Wow that is pretty incredible. It's pretty amazing the difference in home prices around the country. My ex-wife recently bought a house for about 80K in Oklahoma, nice 2000 sf 3bd 2ba home in a quiet nice neighborhood.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro is definitely colder at PDX than the 00z through 120 hours.

 

Mon - 31/26

Tue - 28/22

Wed - 25/19

Thur - 26/17

 

That would be great. If we can keep skies mostly clear through Thursday we should be okay...I think the day with the highest potential to be warmer than forecast is Monday, after that the cold air should settle in down the valley.

[chopper 918]

Wow that is pretty incredible. It's pretty amazing the difference in home prices around the country. My ex-wife recently bought a house for about 80K in Oklahoma, nice 2000 sf 3bd 2ba home in a quiet nice neighborhood.

Yeah, but you live in Oklahoma.

[Kayla]

Euro is definitely colder at PDX than the 00z through 120 hours.

 

Mon - 31/26

Tue - 28/22

Wed - 25/19

Thur - 26/17

 

And continues to get even better. Morning low of 13 on Friday as the outflow eases.

[Front Ranger]

Euro looks considerably better at day 6 for potential reload than GFS. Probably will result in too much digging over water still, but still better.

 

[Front Ranger]

Portland may actually have more impressive highs with this pattern. They won't get as cold at night though. Pretty impressive low level cold pouring through the Gorge. 

 

All about the 925s, baby!

[Deweydog]

Euro looks considerably better at day 6 for potential reload than GFS. Probably will result in to much digging over water still, but still better.

 

get_orig_img.gif

That's a race toward SW flow.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow that is pretty incredible. It's pretty amazing the difference in home prices around the country. My ex-wife recently bought a house for about 80K in Oklahoma, nice 2000 sf 3bd 2ba home in a quiet nice neighborhood.

Yea it is crazy. Actually you might be able to find a decent home between 325-400k in south king county. But overall prices are high up here.

 

Rents are especially outrageous on the east side. Many 3 bedroom places going for 3k a month.

[Kayla]

That would be great. If we can keep skies mostly clear through Thursday we should be okay...I think the day with the highest potential to be warmer than forecast is Monday, after that the cold air should settle in down the valley.

 

Yeah, still plenty of twists and turns ahead. Should be fun.

[Front Ranger]

That's a race toward SW flow.

 

Did ya see the GFS at same time? It's easily worse.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Southward flow wants to cometh... Much stronger on this run

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yea it is crazy. Actually you might be able to find a decent home between 325-400k in south king county. But overall prices are high up here.

 

Rents are especially outrageous on the east side. Many 3 bedroom places going for 3k a month.

 

Median apartment rental in PDX is $1400 a month now. Up about 40% in the past few years. But compared to Seattle and other major cities it isn't that bad. Down in Salem you can get a decent 2 bedroom for $850. A lot more than the $600 I paid back in 2010, but still not bad. 

[chopper 918]

When did this turn into a real estate forum??

[luvssnow_spokane]

Did ya see the GFS at same time? It's easily worse.

Euro most likely playing catch like before when is slower to show the cold. Give it time.

[Deweydog]

Did ya see the GFS at same time? It's easily worse.

I wasn't making a comparison. What you posted is a precursor to strong cyclogenesis offshore.

[luvssnow_spokane]

When did this turn into a real estate forum??

When the arctic event became less likely.

[FroYoBro]

I'm starting to think it is becoming likely that I won't get any snow out of this pattern. Can't like the persistent theme of breaking the offshore flow up with a low coming from way NW. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

hour 192 will be the bomb!... Just wait.

[snow_wizard]

The overwhelming theme is to spin up a low out over the ocean and then kick it back in over us in the day 9 to day 10 time frame. All models agree on this and there is brutally cold air in BC to tap into when the trough kicks back over us.

[Front Ranger]

Median apartment rental in PDX is $1400 a month now. Up about 40% in the past few years. But compared to Seattle and other major cities it isn't that bad. Down in Salem you can get a decent 2 bedroom for $850. A lot more than the $600 I paid back in 2010, but still not bad. 

 

The Willamette Valley is still a relative bargain overall, definitely cheaper than this area. 

 

Denver isn't quite as expensive as Seattle, but not far behind.

[FroYoBro]

I'm starting to think it is becoming likely that I won't get any snow out of this pattern. Can't like the persistent theme of breaking the offshore flow up with a low coming from way NW. 

 

Of course we could still easily get some snow. I am just preparing my weenie mind. 

[Front Ranger]

I wasn't making a comparison. What you posted is a precursor to strong cyclogenesis offshore.

 

I was.

[snow_wizard]

The overwhelming theme is to spin up a low out over the ocean and then kick it back in over us in the day 9 to day 10 time frame. All models agree on this and there is brutally cold air in BC to tap into when the trough kicks back over us.

 

 

When the arctic event became less likely.

Oh yes...the ECMWF drop 850s to -13 at hour 48.

 

I have no idea how people can ruin the fun when we are going to have snow within 24 hours followed by an Arctic outbreak. I was hoping to come on here and have fun today.

[HighlandExperience]

Seattle NWS liking the idea of a CZ tonight. Hopefully it sets up farther south. Don't want it setting up over Everett.

[luvssnow_spokane]

hour 192 will be the bomb!... Just wait.

 

 

Yep called it.. There is the bomb!! BOOM!   lol!

 

 

[Jbolin]

Yep called it.. There is the bomb!! BOOM!   lol!

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png

 

Yep called it.. There is the bomb!! BOOM!   lol!

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_9.png

Tim Jr. is that you?

[Deweydog]

I was.

You did a very good job.

[ShawniganLake]

hour 192 will be the bomb!... Just wait.

It's s bomb alright. Hoping to see 192hr rainfall maps and wind gust charts.