December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS coming in way colder for Christmas Eve compared to the 00Z run.   

 

Also drier... but there is a chance of some lowland snow in a c-zone Friday.

[Timmy]

12z continues to show a white Christmas or close to it, for many

[Brennan]

Where are the skagit county folk? Looks like its dumping there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS WAY better for later in the week. 

[TT-SEA]

Wow... 12Z GFS would be an absolute dream come true for many of us on Christmas morning.   Cold offshore flow and snow!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

[Deweydog]

Wow... 12Z GFS would be an absolute dream come true for many of us on Christmas morning. Cold offshore flow and snow!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Yuppie tantrums work!

 

Science prevails once again!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thank you Lord GFS. At face value snow on the valley floors about Woodburn north to the north pole...And above about 500-1000' pretty much everywhere else...Fantastic one run trend!

[Timmy]

Still have 4-5" of snow here. Roads are completely covered to about 200' elevation. Lots of ice on side roads in town since Thursday. This has been a pretty long event just nw of Portland. It's actually getting pretty annoying.

[TT-SEA]

Yuppie tantrums work!

 

Science prevails once again!

 

 

Fingers crossed!!  

[TT-SEA]

Still have 4-5" of snow here. Roads are completely covered to about 200' elevation. Lots of ice on side roads in town since Thursday. This has been a pretty long event just nw of Portland. It's actually getting pretty annoying.

 

 

My sister and her family are just arriving in your area this morning to visit in-laws.    

 

Where is this camera located in relation to highway 26?

 

http://jamesgilbertco.com/weather/netcam.jpg

[Timmy]

My sister and her family are just arriving in your area this morning to visit in-laws.    

 

Where is this camera located in relation to highway 26?

 

http://jamesgilbertco.com/weather/netcam.jpg

I'm not sure where that is. Looks like 26 is probably de iced. Side roads a slick as heck for a least a couple more hours

[HighlandExperience]

12z NAM keeps any precip from Snohomish county northward through about 6PM tonight.

 

14z HRRR keeps pretty much the whole area dry through 8PM.

 

12z GFS holds the precip off until after 10PM.

 

Nothing like consistency.

Wasn't expecting today too be so dry. A bit dissapointing

[Parksvillewx]

No snow falling here. Looks like YVR is getting slammed with snow though. They've done quite well in the past 10 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long term GFS gets cold too

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heading to see my daughter sing in the Christmas play, sunny skies and 10 degrees at 11am

[Bryant]

As others have mentioned, 12z GFS is much better for next weekend. Most of the below falls Saturday night/Sunday.

Someone kept their wxbell account

[Bryant]

Wow... 12Z GFS would be an absolute dream come true for many of us on Christmas morning. Cold offshore flow and snow!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

You do realize that is rain for most of us right?

 

Can't just look at the pretty colors there Tim

[Bryant]

Hopefully all the bullsh*t evens out by winters end... some people just continue to get lucky

[HighlandExperience]

Hopefully all the bullsh*t evens out by winters end... some people just continue to get lucky

 

I understand your frustration.

 

At this point it is nice to see we are not going to torch next weekend, but I'm not sure snow is possible anymore in Puget Sound. It be nice to even things out just a little.    

[westcoastexpat]

No snow falling here. Looks like YVR is getting slammed with snow though. They've done quite well in the past 10 days.

 

Yup, a little over 2" now

 

This may be our fourth 4" event in a 2-week period.

[crf450ish]

http://www.spaceweather.com

 

 

Sunspot number: 0 

What is the sunspot number?
Updated 18 Dec 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2016 total: 28 days (8%)  
2015 total: 0 days (0%) 
2014 total: 1 day (2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 18 Dec 2016

[Weather101]

Over 2 inches here

[luminen]

Today is a much better set up for snow here than the previous ones. 28F and lightly snowing with 2" so far.

[Weather101]

Heavy snow

[Weather101]

Snow! Y'all like that milk jug I put there? I wanna see if it gets buried Hahahah

[Deweydog]

I've managed to bury a stick of Juicy Fruit during our two snow events so far. Hoping to bury a whole pack during the late January ridiculousness.

[HighlandExperience]

Pretty boring day out in the central Puget Sound area. FIltered sunshine. 

 

"#wastedcoldagain

[Weather101]

I've managed to bury a stick of Juicy Fruit during our two snow events so far. Hoping to bury a whole pack during the late January ridiculousness.

Good luck

[TT-SEA]

Pretty boring day out in the central Puget Sound area. FIltered sunshine. 

 

"#wastedcoldagain

 

 

Actually mostly sunny here right now... way nicer today than I expected.

 

[Farmboy]

All these collapsing models, too bad they couldn't just just collapse in reverse.  For instance, taking away this impending warm up and rain event and collapsing into a huge snowstorm and prolonged cold-wave....

[luminen]

All these collapsing models, too bad they couldn't just just collapse in reverse.  For instance, taking away this impending warm up and rain event and collapsing into a huge snowstorm and prolonged cold-wave....

 

It would be nice but that isn't the climate we live in. 

[The Swamp]

Beautiful sunny day in the swamp. 36 degrees after our half hour flurry storm yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is cold again by Friday with lowland snow in spots in c-zones... and a good dump of snow here on Friday night.     And shows snow showers and cold on Christmas Eve.

 

Perfect!

[westcoastexpat]

12Z GFS gives metro Vancouver an 8" snowstorm throughout the day on Christmas     

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows an 850mb temp of -7C to -8C and a 925 temp of -3C over Seattle on Christmas morning.   Any snow that falls later in the week will not be melting on Christmas.  

[ShawniganLake]

12Z ECMWF shows an 850mb temp of -7C to -8C and a 925 temp of -3C over Seattle on Christmas morning. Any snow that falls later in the week will not be melting on Christmas.

Nice trends in the models for Christmas this morning.

[ShawniganLake]

Just occasional flurries here this morning. 1/4" accumulation. I'm in the snow shadow of the Vancouver island mountains with this setup.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO ALERT?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z Ensembles were OK, not great. No real improvement. 

[Deweydog]

Funky pattern on the Euro.