December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a bit depressed right now. Still watching others get snow while almost nothing happens here.

 

At least it appears the cold is far from done with us.

[MossMan]

Got one better. I used a voice recorder and made my own warning with ridiculous headlines and fear. I acually made it sound real. I held the radio near my pocket but really it was off and the voice recorder was playing. Never forget the look on my moms face when my recording warned of sub zero temps with 85 mph winds and 6 ft drifts. Haha

That is awesome!! I would do a similar thing with recording myself but I would do a news reporter voice and call out my school "Lakewood School District #306 CLOSED due to the heavy snow" haha!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

D**n we're a bunch of nut jobs.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty obvious the WRF is clueless with precip timing for area south of Everett tonight. The Langley Hill radar already shows significant precip in areas that weren't supposed to have any for hours yet. On the bad side of the coin I am far from convinced the air mass will be cold enough to support snow tonight.

[snow_wizard]

D**n we're a bunch of nut jobs.

Yup.

 

Sometimes it's more of a curse than anything.

[MossMan]

Pretty obvious the WRF is clueless with precip timing for area south of Everett tonight. The Langley Hill radar already shows significant precip in areas that weren't supposed to have any for hours yet. On the bad side of the coin I am far from convinced the air mass will be cold enough to support snow tonight.

Not sure...my temp spiked up to 33.8 but has since dropped to 32.6...on a day where just yesterday we were forecasted to be pushing low to mid 40's by the afternoon/evening so not bad!

[TT-SEA]

Pretty obvious the WRF is clueless with precip timing for area south of Everett tonight. The Langley Hill radar already shows significant precip in areas that weren't supposed to have any for hours yet. On the bad side of the coin I am far from convinced the air mass will be cold enough to support snow tonight.

 

The models have showed that stuff offshore for a couple days now.   Its exactly where the WRF showed it.    Watch the ECMWF if you want to know what will happen.    

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/pcp1.09.0000.gif

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm still 33 at home.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This picture my friend just sent me cracks me up. Look how many people haven't left since Wednesday...

 

[Deweydog]

all i had as a kid was the weather radio. Mom got me a new one every Christmas!! I remember how mad i was when they switched to the computer voice lol.

Yeah, I was totally bummed with the automation (1996, I think?) because it shuttered the Astoria forecast office. I'll never forget getting to tour it a couple times and work with one of the mets on a school project. I even got to record one of the hourly roundups. You would have thought I was being allowed to fly the spaceshuttle or something. So much of my youth was based on those guys' voices. They tought me how to read a weather chart, modeling and soundings.

[snow_wizard]

Not sure...my temp spiked up to 33.8 but has since dropped to 32.6...on a day where just yesterday we were forecasted to be pushing low to mid 40's by the afternoon/evening so not bad!

Mid to upper 30s in a lot of places and dps have come up. The thing that's a bit odd about this transition is 850mb winds go SW right away instead of the usual S to SSE.

[snow_wizard]

This picture my friend just sent me cracks me up. Look how many people haven't left since Wednesday...

 

The Willamette Valley has kicked our a$$es the past several years now (starting with the March 2012 event). Looks really cold and snowy there.

[TT-SEA]

This picture my friend just sent me cracks me up. Look how many people haven't left since Wednesday...

 

 

 

 

Where is that?

[crf450ish]

This picture my friend just sent me cracks me up. Look how many people haven't left since Wednesday...

 

Those are the real weenies....

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, I was totally bummed with the automation (1996, I think?) because it shuttered the Astoria forecast office. I'll never forget getting to tour it a couple times and work with one of the mets on a school project. I even got to record one of the hourly roundups. You would have thought I was being allowed to fly the spaceshuttle or something. So much of my youth was based on those guys' voices. They tought me how to read a weather chart, modeling and soundings.

Yeah...it was so different than looking at models. I'll never forget going out of my mind waiting to get home to listen to my weather radio when snow was in the forecast or a cold snap was near.

[snow_wizard]

The models have showed that stuff offshore for a couple days now.   Its exactly where the WRF showed it.    Watch the ECMWF if you want to know what will happen.    

 

 

To me those echoes look stronger and bit further south than what was progged. I still bet it gets here sooner than modeled.

[HighlandExperience]

To me those echoes look stronger and bit further south than what was progged. I still bet it gets here sooner than modeled.

 

Would be nice if we can get on some of the action.

[Weather101]

To me those echoes look stronger and bit further south than what was progged. I still bet it gets here sooner than modeled.

That's not the point

[MossMan]

I'm really starting to become surprised by the temp drop at my house...once I hit 33 about an hour ago I figured it would slowly rise from there but I'm now down to 31.8...did not see that happening at all!

[TT-SEA]

To me those echoes look stronger and bit further south than what was progged. I still bet it gets here sooner than modeled.

 

 

I am pretty sure you allow your mind to play tricks on you in desperate situations.   

 

The precip will get here after 10 p.m. like the ECMWF, WRF, and HRRR models show.   

 

It will probably start as snow in some places that trap cold air and then be rain everywhere by 10 a.m. so its of little consequence anyways.  And then the precip ends in the late morning.   Raise your standards Jim!   

 

Per the reliable ECMWF you will see light rain from about midnight - 10 a.m.   Don't spend time worrying about it.   Very small chance in your area.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Where is that?

 

Salem

[Bryant]

That's not the point

?

[BLI snowman]

GFS still wants to start areas as snow tomorrow, I think the 925mb warm layer will be a bit too much to overcome. Either way, it's an extremely short window for anything before the southerlies completely mix the atmosphere out. I'm guessing 33 degree rain.

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Would be nice if we can get on some of the action.

I'm really doubtful about the cold, but you never know. This setup is destined to create a faster warmup than would normally be the case.

[snow_wizard]

GFS still wants to start areas as snow tomorrow, I think the 925mb warm layer will be a bit too much to overcome. Either way, it's an extremely short window for anything before the southerlies completely mix the atmosphere out. I'm guessing 33 degree rain.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_3.png

This will probably wipe out much of the Whatcom County snow very quickly. Really unfortunate way this moves in.

[snow_wizard]

?

I second that.

[TT-SEA]

This will probably wipe out much of the Whatcom County snow very quickly. Really unfortunate way this moves in.

 

 

Its all melting tomorrow either way... not a big deal.   They have had snow on the ground for a week now.  

[MossMan]

Its all melting tomorrow either way... not a big deal. They have had snow on the ground for a week now.

And it could be back by the end of the week!!

[TT-SEA]

And it could be back by the end of the week!!

 

 

For many areas... yes.   But it will not be widespread.  

[BLI snowman]

This will probably wipe out much of the Whatcom County snow very quickly. Really unfortunate way this moves in.

 

Yeah, Bellingham doesn't do great when surface pressure gradients align so much to the SE like that. Downsloping occurs quickly up there.

 

The Hood Canal could see a nice 5-6 hour storm though. Down here, the Forest Grove area is definitely the most likely bet to see anything.

[MossMan]

For many areas... yes. But it will not be widespread.

Been a theme the last few weeks...still beats 48 degree slop!

[TT-SEA]

Might not be snowing now... but its still a wonderfully wintery day in Bellingham.   I believe this is the 8th day in row there.

 

[TT-SEA]

Been a theme the last few weeks...still beats 48 degree slop!

 

 

Sure does.

[snow_wizard]

I am pretty sure you allow your mind to play tricks on you in desperate situations.   

 

The precip will get here after 10 p.m. like the ECMWF, WRF, and HRRR models show.   

 

It will probably start as snow in some places that trap cold air and then be rain everywhere by 10 a.m. so its of little consequence anyways.  And then the precip ends in the late morning.   Raise your standards Jim!   

 

Per the reliable ECMWF you will see light rain from about midnight - 10 a.m.   Don't spend time worrying about it.   Very small chance in your area.

I already said I doubt it will be cold enough. I was just making an observation about timing.

 

It's sure easy for you to say don't worry about getting snow BTW.

[TT-SEA]

I already said I doubt it will be cold enough. I was just making an observation about timing.

 

 

Models timing looks exactly right this time as well.   Not sure how you think its coming in so fast.   

 

You really think a small band of precip offshore that is moving northward is coming to Covington?  

[snow_wizard]

For many areas... yes.   But it will not be widespread.

You have no way of knowing how widespread it will be. The situation is evolving rapidly. It gets pretty tiring the way you downplay everyone's chances of getting snow when you have already gotten and will continue to get ridiculous amounts there. This isn't all about you. I know you take sick pleasure in watching the people who get screwed.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm really doubtful about the cold, but you never know. This setup is destined to create a faster warmup than would normally be the case.

You have too admit this entire two week period has been a dissapointment for King County. All of that potential wasted. Having us warm up before most of the precip arrives is even more tragic.

[TT-SEA]

You have no way of knowing how widespread it will be. The situation is evolving rapidly. It gets pretty tiring the way you downplay everyone's chances of getting snow when you have already gotten and will continue to get ridiculous amounts there. This isn't all about you. I know you take sick pleasure in watching the people who get screwed.

I am reporting what the models show. Likely won't be widespread. C-zones areas are probably the best. Mt Vernon to North Bend.

 

You chose to live in Covington after living here all your life. I watched the weather here for a year from San Diego and knew the good snow spots in King County. Also thought I would like rain. My bad.

 

Got the snow part right though. If its so important then definitely pick wisely.

[Front Ranger]

For many areas... yes.   But it will not be widespread.  

 

Way too early to say if any, many, or all areas will see snow at the end of this week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z keeps it dry all the way through Christmas Day. Looks like some nice dry cool weather at face value. Would certainly be an enjoyable day with snow shimmering in the mountains after some low snow levels a couple days earlier.