December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

We'll see. A later onset wouldn't shock me though. Pretty hard to ignore the way the latest ECMWF ensemble looks. The last 45 day ensemble looked good also.

The thing is, there are limitations to ensemble averaging, and tropical forcings/planetary waves are often mishandled homogenously, in such a way that may present a signal that will turn out to be quite unrealistic at-range.

 

For example, the big US-ridge in the extended range 12z EPS arises (temporarily) via the aforementioned pattern shake up, and will be very transitory. Yet, the ensemble mean makes it look more like a prolonged pattern state due to sequential timing differences in the depicted regime change.

 

In reality, that ridge is a transitory response that will cycle through within week, most likely.

[MossMan]

I do think we will see something really good the last week of December into the first week or two of January...now look to be in the minority on this. Oh well.

[TT-SEA]

Obviously optimism won't alter the outcome, but why follow weather and visit this forum if you aren't going to have a posistive outlook? A little bit of rain shows up in the models and you immediately revert back to typical Tim, who downplays everything and feels the need to offset Jims positive vibes.

 

 

Maybe for accurate analysis?    

 

Throwing hissy fits and cursing out everything about this area...  and then demanding that everyone be positive.   Then repeat.      

 

I am not downplaying anything.   I posted some of the good news I could find today.     Scientific discussion should not be forced into only positive feel-good stuff.   You have been complaining this week about reality as well.  

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting to note on the 18z GFS ensemble the little chilly interlude later in the coming week is getting longer (more time blow the normal line). These are the kinds of things that happen when the cold isn't done with us yet.

[Weather101]

Looks like we will get hit up here pretty good tonight/tmrw, have a snowfall warning in place.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we will get hit up here pretty good tonight/tmrw, have a snowfall warning in place.

You probably will. The north really won this round. With a couple of localized exceptions.

[Brennan]

Maybe for accurate analysis?

 

Throwing hissy fits and cursing out everything about this area... and then demanding that everyone be positive. Then repeat.

 

I am not downplaying anything. I posted some of the good news I could find today. Scientific discussion should not be forced into only positive feel-good stuff. You have been complaining this week about reality as well.

Be a better person, for your own good.

[MossMan]

I wonder if we had an exact repeat of Jan 1950 where everyone scores "Big League" would there still be constant bickering on the forum?

Would it go something like this...

 

Jim: I have a good 52" of snow on the ground and my current temp is 3...and the Euro has promise for another 12" in 4 days!

 

Tim: looking at the Covington traffic cam you only have 48" of snow, the temp is actually 8 degrees and the GEM is calling for 48 degree rain in 4 days. Jim you are wish casting again!

 

Or Phil and Richard...

 

Phil: The problem with the evolution of the WHAM and the PDO+ along with the REMD is causing a prolapse of the solar minimum which in turn will mark an abrupt end to the 1950 redux.

 

Richard: _\|>€£¥•%#{^*...1950 redux *******!

And we will all go into spring with smiles on our faces!

[MossMan]

After an apparent high of 29 I am back down to 27 and mostly cloudy.

[Front Ranger]

The 18z once again shows mammoth blocking setting up over the Aleutians / GOA.  It came dangerously close to going a very good way for us.  As it is the 6 to 10 day period has already trended toward the ECMWF ensemble.  There will probably be a number cold members on the 18z ensemble.

 

The 18z ensembles had an extremely strong signal for blocking days 11-15. Just need it a little closer.

 

[crf450ish]

Already down to 4f at my house after a high of 12. IF temps keep falling, I could wake up to negative degrees. Or I could stay up and wait for them. 

[Front Ranger]

Light snowflakes have stopped falling.   Nothing is wet... and there is no new snow on any bare surfaces.

 

Models showed about 0.00 or a T here today... and it looks like we got about 0.00 or a T.  

 

Those goofy models always do bad in this situation.  

 

They did not show Everett area getting accumulation today, and that happened.

[MossMan]

Temp dropping fairly rapidly now...26 now!

[Front Ranger]

I think you're rushing things here. I'd look towards the very end of January and beyond. IMO, anything from now until at least the first week of January is a lost cause. Intraseasonal forcing will be bifurcating from the background state over the next several weeks, which is a great thing in the long run, but a bad thing in the nearer term.

 

Though admittedly, I was biased slow with the recent progression myself, having called for the EPO/US cold to occur around the holidays, as opposed to mid-December (10 days too slow), so maybe I'm wrong. I've been slow on the intraseasonal scale all year long, for whatever reason.

 

Not trying to pick on you, but you were still calling for this about 10 days ago...

[TT-SEA]

They did not show Everett area getting accumulation today, and that happened.

Very minor detail and there were patches of precip on the models. Just very sparse. And it was.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z ensembles had an extremely strong signal for blocking days 11-15. Just need it a little closer.

 

get_orig_img (2).gif

One of the reasons I'm excited about the Euro ensemble. Good placement...at the same time the operational models have the amplitude / intensity.

 

Whoa...I just realized those height anoms are the ensemble mean. VERY impressive.

[snow_wizard]

Temp dropping fairly rapidly now...26 now!

But it's only wasted cold.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 4f at my house after a high of 12. IF temps keep falling, I could wake up to negative degrees. Or I could stay up and wait for them. 

Surprised you didn't go minus last night.

[Front Ranger]

I don't have any dazzling acronyms to throw around or references to eddy fluxes and such but I find it wildly unlikely we see anything cold meridional prior to the last third of January. I do wonder about some +PNA stuff mid month-ish, maybe followed by retrogression? I dunno... Maybe I'm just plagiarizing 2008-09...

 

I do think this would make sense if this winter followed the script of recent winters.

 

But looking further back, it would be far from unprecedented to continue to see the pattern to continue to revert to the general state it's been in this month (though obviously not as cold the whole time) throughout the winter, and not wait until late January.

[Weather101]

You probably will. The north really won this round. With a couple of localized exceptions.

Always evens out.

[bainbridgekid]

My coworker on Whidbey Island posted pictures on Facebook today of her kids sledding in their yard with what looked to be a solid inch of snow.

 

That type of powdery snow on top of frozen ground really is worlds better than the slush on top of mud we so often still go crazy over.

[Jesse]

I do think this would make sense if this winter followed the script of recent winters.

 

But looking further back, it would be far from unprecedented to continue to see the pattern to continue to revert to the general state it's been in this month (though obviously not as cold the whole time) throughout the winter, and not wait until late January.

Dewey plays it conservative. No surprises there.

 

But if you are going for accuracy that is what you do. It's all one big bell curve!

[MossMan]

My coworker on Whidbey Island posted pictures on Facebook today of her kids sledding in their yard with what looked to be a solid inch of snow.

 

That type of powdery snow on top of frozen ground really is worlds better than the slush on top of mud we so often still go crazy over.

Sooo much nicer! I cannot wait to experience the powdery snow on frozen ground on a regular basis when we move east someday.

[snow_wizard]

Dewey plays it conservative. No surprises there.

 

But if you are going for accuracy that is what you do. It's all one big bell curve!

It's funny my politics are so conservative, but my weather theories are far from it.

 

In all seriousness I just feel it in my bones this year. We have only seen the appetizer.

[Jesse]

My coworker on Whidbey Island posted pictures on Facebook today of her kids sledding in their yard with what looked to be a solid inch of snow.

 

That type of powdery snow on top of frozen ground really is worlds better than the slush on top of mud we so often still go crazy over.

We just went for a walk and what snow we have left (an inch or more in the shade) is still as powdery as it was when it fell. Definitely agree it is better than the usual wet stuff for durability, as long as it stays cold enough to maintain it of course.

[Jesse]

It's funny my politics are so conservative, but my weather theories are far from it.

 

In all seriousness I just feel it in my bones this year. We have only seen the appetizer.

I know what you mean, and I hope the feeling is correct.

[Perturbed Member]

Wow it's actually snowing at a decent rate here. Starting to coat everything.

[luminen]

Saw this on a building in Burnaby today... 

[BLI snowman]

Wow it's actually snowing at a decent rate here. Starting to coat everything.

 

Flurrystorm part II!

[MossMan]

I know what you mean, and I hope the feeling is correct.

Personally I'm going all in for at least the first half of not all of January. Mostly all off of gut feeling, and I'm going all positive from now on...I don't waste my time in real life with negativity so I'm also quitting those posts here. Going all in and it's going to be great!

[Phil]

The 18z ensembles had an extremely strong signal for blocking days 11-15. Just need it a little closer.

 

get_orig_img (2).gif

Not just closer, but it also needs poleward amplification.

 

That is not going to happen before week two in January, at earliest, and even then, there are additional questions. Time to give it up.

[Front Ranger]

Dewey plays it conservative. No surprises there.

 

But if you are going for accuracy that is what you do. It's all one big bell curve!

 

Well, if we see any significant cold before Jan 20, he will not have been accurate. 

 

I think odds only favor that in a vacuum. 

[Phil]

Not trying to pick on you, but you were still calling for this about 10 days ago...

Until you start making your own sub-seasonal forecasts, maybe you should avoid critiquing mine. I don't think you understand how difficult it is to decipher the bounds between intreasonal forcings, background tendencies, and the resonant behaviors associated with them both. This isn't black and white. It's highly nonlinear, unstable, fluid, and very often threshold-based which introduces enormous uncertainty.

 

If you understood this, I don't think you'd be making this comment right now. It comes off as very naive, no offense.

[Front Ranger]

Not just closer, but it also needs poleward amplification.

 

That is not going to happen before week two in January, at earliest, and even then, there are additional questions. Time to give it up.

 

Not for the PNW to score significant cold/snow in late Decemeber/early January. Move that ridge further west, and it's well into AK. Then just add a bit of tilt. They don't need blocking across the pole and -AO to get cold.

[Jesse]

Not just closer, but it also needs poleward amplification.

 

That is not going to happen before week two in January, at earliest, and even then, there are additional questions. Time to give it up.

Post like this don't behoove you. You don't have all the answers. A little humility goes a long way.

[MossMan]

Not just closer, but it also needs poleward amplification.

 

That is not going to happen before week two in January, at earliest, and even then, there are additional questions. Time to give it up.

Will you also smoke a pinecone if we end up having a great first half of January?

[Jesse]

I think odds only favor that in a vacuum.

That's a good way of putting it.

[Phil]

Not for the PNW to score significant cold/snow in late Decemeber/early January. Move that ridge further west, and it's well into AK. Then just add a bit of tilt. They don't need blocking across the pole and -AO to get cold.

This isn't accurate at all. There's WAY too much stacked vorticity and anomalous full-column U-winds progged over Alaska and the western Arctic in association w/ the strong PV.

 

Zero chance.

[Front Ranger]

Until you start making your own sub-seasonal forecasts, maybe you should avoid critiquing mine. I don't think you understand how difficult it is to decipher the bounds between intreasonal forcings, background tendencies, and the resonant behaviors associated with them both. This isn't black and white. It's highly nonlinear, unstable, fluid, and very often threshold-based which introduces enormous uncertainty.

 

If you understood this, I don't think you'd be making this comment right now. It comes off as very naive, no offense.

 

I understand it's very difficult to make specific timing calls like that. Just pointing out that a 10 day difference is significant when you were still calling for a holiday cold wave 10 days ago. At that time, you weren't recognizing that cold period we were entering as the same event (but earlier) you were expecting later in the month.

[MossMan]

25!