December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Winterdog]

One last thing...people need to remember many of our great winters had little or no snow up to this point.  The despair on here seems a bit misguided to me.

My despair is perfectly placed. I remember many more of our lousy winters that had little or no snow up to this point.

[Weather101]

I have already stated many times why we will have a lot of cold this winter and how early season cold snaps are less reliable for delivering widespread epic snow events.

 

Am I not correct you have had a lot of snow anyway?

Not sure if you're seeing the point.. I'm talking about in GENERAL that some people can feel that it's wasted cold if they get no snow with it. When did I state that it won't be cold anymore this winter? Put you're ego away for a quick second, in years past there was no guarantee we would see cold again in a week, or even a month later. This year looks different but you can't blame people if they feel cold is being wasted in a snow starved Puget sound. Just because you're addicted to cold not everyone else gets off on just it being "cold", also you sound a bit hypercritical ? If cold was enough you wouldn't have cried last week when it didn't snow so you can't be then changing you're tune saying #coldrules etc etc. You say the despair is mind blogging to you, but weren't you the one having despair a week ago? lol

 

Speaking about my snow which had nothing to do with my original post in the first place, I have had decent amounts of snow. Not a lot at all compared to the higher elevations in my area.

[Phil]

Gotcha.

 

Before going back to balls to the walls epicness in January right?

 

Yeah, likely something much, blockier during the final three weeks of January. At least on the large scale, I see lots of NH blocking starting around/after January 7-10th..exact details remain quite uncertain.

[TT-SEA]

Agreed. Would be sad if this was the height of our winter weather this year.

 

 

Fairly decent chance this was the real peak.   Might be a secondary one later in January.

[Phil]

Fairly decent chance this was the real peak. Might be a secondary one later in January.

Lol, based on what?

[TT-SEA]

Light snowflakes have stopped falling.   Nothing is wet... and there is no new snow on any bare surfaces.

 

Models showed about 0.00 or a T here today... and it looks like we got about 0.00 or a T.  

 

Those goofy models always do bad in this situation.  

[TT-SEA]

Lol, based on what?

 

Pretty significant cold/snowy pattern.    Might not be repeated... these periods don't come often in these parts.   

[jakeinthevalley]

Baker, OR just climbed above 0F to a balmy +2F at 2pm. This after a morning low of -16F. Upwards of 15" of snow on the ground.

 

BTW, Baker is a town of about 10k people in NE (kinda) Oregon.

[Phil]

Pretty significant cold/snowy pattern. Might not be repeated... these don't come often in these parts.

Yeah, but I'd argue it's more likely to re-occur in a year like this versus most other years. The -ENSO/+QBO is your ideal background state in the long run.

 

I think there's an opportunity for something more "significant" towards the very end of January and/or February at some point..not saying it's a slam dunk but there's definitely a window there IMO. Just need proper timing of the various components involved.

[Winterdog]

Fairly decent chance this was the real peak.   Might be a secondary one later in January.

Exactly! The most likely outcome is one more brush with arctic air before March. If we happen to get lucky and it hits us more directly then Jim will be dancing on the bar top delighted by his forecasting skills.

[HighlandExperience]

Pretty significant cold/snowy pattern.    Might not be repeated... these periods don't come often in these parts.   

 

Sadly this is just based off our reality living in these parts. Many years we won't see a good snow again till March. The past two weeks were just wasted for us in the central sound. Only so many bullets in the chamber. Fired so many dam warning shots, they missed us. 

 

Perhaps this year is different? 

[ShawniganLake]

I'm guessing this means the average temps at day 10 are no longer a lock?

Nobody said anything about a lock. So not sure what you are referring to. I think we are going to have to wait a little while for another shot at snow and cold for everyone. Maybe January.

[TT-SEA]

Exactly! The most likely outcome is one more brush with arctic air before March. If we happen to get lucky and it hits us more directly then Jim will be dancing on the bar top delighted by his forecasting skills.

 

 

You can go through the archives on the forum for December in every year back to 2005 and you will see Jim saying the same basic thing.   

 

His optimism is not really indicative of anything at all... its just a given right now.    Might work out... might not.   But Jim will sound the same every year at this point.    

[Skagit Weather]

Getting pretty toasty up here with a temperature moving towards 34F. It may have been super impressive in Bellingham, but IMBY we actually only had one day that remained below freezing and one day the low dropped below 20F. I guess it's not too surprising that the one day that was cloudy remained the coldest, but I did not expect Wednesday to be the only subfreezing high. Hopefully it cools off enough tonight that we can start nice and cold with snow tomorrow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

17 degrees and snowing now. The kids at the birthday party went crazy when they saw the snow falling.

[Deweydog]

So I'm assuming the 18z has us going into the ice box by day 10?  

[snow_wizard]

The 18z once again shows mammoth blocking setting up over the Aleutians / GOA.  It came dangerously close to going a very good way for us.  As it is the 6 to 10 day period has already trended toward the ECMWF ensemble.  There will probably be a number cold members on the 18z ensemble.

[snow_wizard]

So I'm assuming the 18z has us going into the ice box by day 10?  

 

Let's just say New Years still has a great shot at being good.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I'll manage to stay below freezing today.  Pretty hard not to with heavy cloud cover and very light easterly drift after a low of 18.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like I'll manage to stay below freezing today.  Pretty hard not to with heavy cloud cover and very light easterly drift after a low of 18.

Keep in mind that it will be 46 tomorrow with rain. Thats very important to focus on at this point.

[MossMan]

Getting pretty toasty up here with a temperature moving towards 34F. It may have been super impressive in Bellingham, but IMBY we actually only had one day that remained below freezing and one day the low dropped below 20F. I guess it's not too surprising that the one day that was cloudy remained the coldest, but I did not expect Wednesday to be the only subfreezing high. Hopefully it cools off enough tonight that we can start nice and cold with snow tomorrow.

Was 32 when I left Mt Vernon, back home now and it's 28.

[Jesse]

17 degrees and snowing now. The kids at the birthday party went crazy when they saw the snow falling.

Awe.

[Winterdog]

Let's just say New Years still has a great shot at being good.

Especially if the Huskies beat Alabama.

[Brennan]

You can go through the archives on the forum for December in every year back to 2005 and you will see Jim saying the same basic thing.

 

His optimism is not really indicative of anything at all... its just a given right now. Might work out... might not. But Jim will sound the same every year at this point.

Dude. This isn't necessary and after 10 years of it I don't understand your need to try and change who Jim is or what he does. I love the optimism and enthusiasm he brings here and I can't speak for others but I think most do. We all have our stamp on this forum and nobody needs to go out of their way to try and change anyone. If you don't love them the way they are leave them alone.

[TT-SEA]

Dude. This isn't necessary and after 10 years of it I don't understand your need to try and change who Jim is or what he does. I love the optimism and enthusiasm he brings here and I can't speak for others but I think most do. We all have our stamp on this forum and nobody needs to go out of their way to try and change anyone. If you don't love them the way they are leave them alone.

 

 

I am saying his optimism does not mean anything about what will happen going forward.   Its a permanent fixture in December... for 14 years and counting.   Look it up.    

 

I mention it when Jim dictates that people be up when he is in manic mode.... and down when he is depressive mode.   

[Jesse]

Dude. This isn't necessary and after 10 years of it I don't understand your need to try and change who Jim is or what he does. I love the optimism and enthusiasm he brings here and I can't speak for others but I think most do. We all have our stamp on this forum and nobody needs to go out of their way to try and change anyone. If you don't love them the way they are leave them alone.

I agree with all of this. I love Jim too. He is like a long lost Uncle to me.

[Brennan]

I am saying his optimism does not mean anything about what will happen going forward. Its a permanent fixture in December... for 14 years and counting. Look it up.

 

I mention it when Jim dictates that people be up when he is in manic mode.... and down when he is depressive mode.

I know what you're saying, we all know what you are saying and we've always known. It's very clear. I refuse to go back in time to pull up long lost information to make someone look bad it's just not the kind of person i choose to be.

[Phil]

Let's just say New Years still has a great shot at being good.

I think you're rushing things here. I'd look towards the very end of January and beyond. IMO, anything from now until at least the first week of January is a lost cause. Intraseasonal forcing will be bifurcating from the background state over the next several weeks, which is a great thing in the long run, but a bad thing in the nearer term.

 

Though admittedly, I was biased slow with the recent progression myself, having called for the EPO/US cold to occur around the holidays, as opposed to mid-December (10 days too slow), so maybe I'm wrong. I've been slow on the intraseasonal scale all year long, for whatever reason.

[snow_wizard]

Keep in mind that it will be 46 tomorrow with rain. Thats very important to focus on at this point.

Oh I know. I wouldn't be shocked if we have a slower warm up than that. On the other hand it will be relatively fast due to the westerly flow barging in here.

[MossMan]

I wonder if we had an exact repeat of Jan 1950 where everyone scores "Big League" would there still be constant bickering on the forum?

Would it go something like this...

 

Jim: I have a good 52" of snow on the ground and my current temp is 3...and the Euro has promise for another 12" in 4 days!

 

Tim: looking at the Covington traffic cam you only have 48" of snow, the temp is actually 8 degrees and the GEM is calling for 48 degree rain in 4 days. Jim you are wish casting again!

 

Or Phil and Richard...

 

Phil: The problem with the evolution of the WHAM and the PDO+ along with the REMD is causing a prolapse of the solar minimum which in turn will mark an abrupt end to the 1950 redux.

 

Richard: _\|>€£¥•%#{^*...1950 redux *******!

[snow_wizard]

I know what you're saying, we all know what you are saying and we've always known. It's very clear. I refuse to go back in time to pull up long lost information to make someone look bad it's just not the kind of person i choose to be.

I also found some new indicators during the summer that give me more confidence about this winter. There is no question the pattern we have been in is different than recent cold waves. More like old time stuff.

[snow_wizard]

I wonder if we had an exact repeat of Jan 1950 where everyone scores "Big League" would there still be constant bickering on the forum?

No....we would all be euphoric and then crash and burn from the excitement.

[Deweydog]

Jim to me is like the forum mascot. You love him to death, appreciate the enthusiasm and irrational bias but in the end you know he's not gonna have any impact whatsoever on the outcome of the game.

[Phil]

Eh, that looks primed for a discontinuous retrogression, which wouldn't be a good thing verbatim. End result there would be a trough in the SE US and GOA, ridge over the Intermountain West.

 

Not saying I agree with it, FWIW.

FWIW, the 18z GFS does precisely what I was suggesting the 12z ECMWF would do, in the above post. Might be something to watch, given some recent trends.

[snow_wizard]

I think you're rushing things here. I'd look towards the very end of January and beyond. IMO, anything from now until at least the first week of January is a lost cause. Intraseasonal forcing will be bifurcating from the background state over the next several weeks, which is a great thing in the long run, but a bad thing in the nearer term.

 

Though admittedly, I was biased slow with the recent progression myself, having called for the EPO/US cold to occur around the holidays, as opposed to mid-December (10 days too slow), so maybe I'm wrong. I've been slow on the intraseasonal scale all year long, for whatever reason.

We'll see. A later onset wouldn't shock me though. Pretty hard to ignore the way the latest ECMWF ensemble looks. The last 45 day ensemble looked good also.

[snow_wizard]

Jim to me is like the forum mascot. You love him to death, appreciate the enthusiasm and irrational bias but in the end you know he's not gonna have any impact whatsoever on the outcome of the game.

Very true.

[Bryant]

I am saying his optimism does not mean anything about what will happen going forward. Its a permanent fixture in December... for 14 years and counting. Look it up.

 

I mention it when Jim dictates that people be up when he is in manic mode.... and down when he is depressive mode.

Obviously optimism won't alter the outcome, but why follow weather and visit this forum if you aren't going to have a posistive outlook? A little bit of rain shows up in the models and you immediately revert back to typical Tim, who downplays everything and feels the need to offset Jims positive vibes.

[Deweydog]

I don't have any dazzling acronyms to throw around or references to eddy fluxes and such but I find it wildly unlikely we see anything cold meridional prior to the last third of January. I do wonder about some +PNA stuff mid month-ish, maybe followed by retrogression? I dunno... Maybe I'm just plagiarizing 2008-09...

[Bryant]

Jim to me is like the forum mascot. You love him to death, appreciate the enthusiasm and irrational bias but in the end you know he's not gonna have any impact whatsoever on the outcome of the game.

Thank you.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, the 18z GFS does precisely what I was suggesting the 12z ECMWF would do, in the above post. Might be something to watch, given some recent trends.

The GFS has wanted to put too much emphasis on the cut off lows that form on the SE quadrant of the GOA / Aleutian blocks this season. That makes it show a phantom ridge over the continental US which in turn screws up the pattern. The trend has been for the cutoff lows to be less impressive in the end which means no US ridge which allows the cold northern branch to dominate. A repeating theme lately.