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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

There is absolutely convergence going on right now. It's just overrunning a cold air mass.

 

Right along N King County/S Snohomish, as often happens.

 

Nahhhh... the main batch will continue to push through.   Right now its looks like a c-zone but that is temporary.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

OK Jim... several inches coming your way!    Radar shows a massive c-zone heading right for Covington!

Yay!!!!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Thats how i had so much sbow in 07/08.

 

 

I doubt there will be much lowland snow with 850mb temp of +5C which is what the ECMWF shows for Christmas Day.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Some really nice low temps last night around the state. Many sub zero readings east of the Cascades and many mid to upper teens in Western WA. Ferndale's 13 is the lowest I could find for the West side.

 

Deer Park: -14

Pasco: -9 (insane for that location given the situation)

Bellingham: 14

Olympia: 15

MBY: 18

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF continues to advertise a bit of a cold snap just before Christmas and continues to like the idea of rising heights over the GOA after Christmas. At face value we could be talking about 500 to 1000 foot snow levels around the 22nd or 23rd.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

I saw 16 flakes this morning, each providing a miniature snowscape of their own. Another winter memory I'll treasure for years.

East side of I-5 up here not doing as well...sorry.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Front Ranger Grand Master

Front Ranger

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF continues to advertise a bit of a cold snap just before Christmas and continues to like the idea of rising heights over the GOA after Christmas. At face value we could be talking about 500 to 1000 foot snow levels around the 22nd or 23rd.

 

Love how it looks at day 10.

 

get_orig_img (1).gif

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A forum for the end of the world.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

The models have kind of been all over the place for next weekend. Christmas is eight days away.

 

Small hope for a change... but this is the time frame when things start to lock in at the 500mb level and its certainly trended worse in the last 24 hours.   Including the EPS and control run.

 

Again... I am just focused on the 24-27th when it would be nice to share a snowy landscape with family from CA.   And not have the usual sideways rain.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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epiceast Newbie

epiceast

Posted
Posted

This is not really a c-zone pattern.    Its an overrunning situation.   

Its oriented in the same way a Vancouver Island convergence zone would be. The only difference is it's too broad and too light for such a persistent zone. Here's the classic example of twin zones that Cliff mass has on his blog.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/12/a-dramatic-double-convergence-zone.html

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Maybe PDX will at least be able to score a high of 32 today. Whenever 850s fall to -10c I fell like we should have some sort of temperature goody to show for it.

 

They fell to 27 last night too, which was honestly colder than I thought they would get by the time I went to bed. Hit 25 here.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Its oriented in the same way a Vancouver Island convergence zone would be. The only difference is it's too broad and too light for such a persistent zone. Here's the classic example of twin zones that Cliff mass has on his blog.

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/12/a-dramatic-double-convergence-zone.html

 

This more of an orographic situation with NW flow... not a CAA pattern with strong converging winds around the Olympic peninsula.  

 

Either way the main blob of moisture is moving through now in the NW flow and is about over.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted

This more of an orographic situation with NW flow... not a CAA pattern with strong converging winds around the Olympic peninsula.

 

Either way the main blob of moisture is moving through now in the NW flow and is about over.

Just like how the holiday season is almost over...and winter as well.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

Posted
Posted

Small hope for a change... but this is the time frame when things start to lock in at the 500mb level and its certainly trended worse in the last 24 hours. Including the EPS and control run.

 

Again... I am just focused on the 24-27th when it would be nice to share a snowy landscape with family from CA. And not have the usual sideways rain.

Don't be too hard on yourself getting hung up on impressing others. It will never be enough. I'm sure your relatives have seen your place with snow on the ground before. Regardless of what happens you have a beautiful place/family to show off.

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

Posted
Posted

Maybe PDX will at least be able to score a high of 32 today. Whenever 850s fall to -10c I fell like we should have some sort of temperature goody to show for it.

 

They fell to 27 last night too, which was honestly colder than I thought they would get by the time I went to bed. Hit 25 here.

34.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

The ECMWF continues to advertise a bit of a cold snap just before Christmas and continues to like the idea of rising heights over the GOA after Christmas. At face value we could be talking about 500 to 1000 foot snow levels around the 22nd or 23rd.

Sounds amazing.

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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MR.SNOWMIZER Grand Master

MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted
Posted

Some really nice low temps last night around the state. Many sub zero readings east of the Cascades and many mid to upper teens in Western WA. Ferndale's 13 is the lowest I could find for the West side.Deer Park: -14Pasco: -9 (insane for that location given the situation)Bellingham: 14Olympia: 15MBY: 18

16.2 here at my home and -14 at my cabin!

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Love how it looks at day 10.

 

attachicon.gifget_orig_img (1).gif

Kind of has that look alright.

 

The block coming back so soon kind of sets this aside from a lot of recent years. Most of the time if the cold is really done with us you won't even see minor chilly interludes after a significant cold wave like this.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

16.2 here at my home and -14 at my cabin!

Do you have a temperature sensor up there you can access?

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Heaviest it's snowed all day in Mukilteo.

 

attachicon.gif525vc00695.jpg

Definitely Strait / Sound effect snow. The moisture dumps out pretty quickly when it gets over land.

 

That having been said the mountains I can see about 10 miles from here have "disappeared" over the past 15 minutes.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

Definitely Strait / Sound effect snow. The moisture dumps out pretty quickly when it gets over land.

 

That having been said the mountains I can see about 10 miles from here have "disappeared" over the past 15 minutes.

 

 

Partly sunny here now.    Mountains all clearly visible.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Results in pretty seasonable temps at the surface.

Kind of missing the point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

The radar continues to look better and the clouds are pretty serious looking here now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted

The radar continues to look better and the clouds are pretty serious looking here now.

 

What radar are you looking at?

 

The SEA radar just switched to hyper-sensitive mode.   90% of which is virga.   

 

The greens have all but disappeared in the middle of the blob as it slides to the SE.   The green areas were the only places that snow was actually reaching the ground.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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