December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF control run agrees with the operational run for Christmas.... so does the EPS mean.   The Midwest was looking really warm but now they are in the sweet spot next weekend.

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The lake near my house is frozen over completely. First time since 2010 i think.

[TT-SEA]

The lake near my house is frozen over completely. First time since 2010 i think.

 

 

The pond by our house is frozen now as well... it froze solid last year in late December and early January.  

[ShawniganLake]

The lake near my house is frozen over completely. First time since 2010 i think.

How big is the lake?  Shawnigan Lake is 99.9% ice free.  I would assume partly the result of a warm November. 

[snow_wizard]

Oh brother- virga

It's snowing here now so there.

 

Your attitude sucks dude.

[snow_wizard]

No, I am not.

The point is a block in that position will ultimately deliver cold.

[snow_wizard]

Very dry snow falling here. Actually decent sized flakes, but just need more of them.

[Front Ranger]

Oh brother- virga

 

Actually most of the precip has just been to the north of Seattle. Not virga. Latest blob looks to be moving in a more favorable trajectory for Seattle proper and points southeast.

[HighlandExperience]

Very dry snow falling here. Actually decent sized flakes, but just need more of them.

Same here.

[Jesse]

The pond by our house is frozen now as well... it froze solid last year in late December and early January.

I was just thinking about the dissimilarities between this winter and last winter the other day.

[snow_wizard]

Actually most of the precip has just been to the north of Seattle. Not virga. Latest blob looks to be moving in a more favorable trajectory for Seattle proper and points southeast.

Yeah...I like the looks of that blob moving down the Sound right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-10.1C at 850mb this morning over SLE. WORD

[Perturbed Member]

Plenty of blue sky now visible. Poor PDX NWS and their winter weather advisory. 

[Front Ranger]

Liking how things look for the Portland area this afternoon/evening. Wouldn't surprise me to see much of the area get another .5-1".

[snow_wizard]

I was just thinking about the dissimilarities between this winter and last winter the other day.

Indeed. The cold snap he was referring to last winter was nothing like this one.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

How big is the lake? Shawnigan Lake is 99.9% ice free. I would assume partly the result of a warm November.

85 acres.

[Perturbed Member]

Liking how things look for the Portland area this afternoon/evening. Wouldn't surprise me to see much of the area get another .5-1".

 

Hmm, you think there is enough precip around for that?

[MossMan]

Left my house about 45 min ago and it was still snowing and 26 degrees with side roads covered. Here in Mt Vernon where I am now there is no snow, no snow on the ground and it's 30 degrees.,

[Deweydog]

Liking how things look for the Portland area this afternoon/evening. Wouldn't surprise me to see much of the area get another .5-1".

Might need a WWA!!!

 

Anything more than a dusting would surprise me.

[BLI snowman]

Liking how things look for the Portland area this afternoon/evening. Wouldn't surprise me to see much of the area get another .5-1".

Pretty anemic thus far.

 

Monday might be better.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty anemic thus far.

 

Monday might be better.

 

More precip moving onshore now, and better forcing with that front sagging south. 

[Guest Sounder]

Snowing pretty good here on Capitol Hill in Seattle. Dry, fluffy flakes.

[Deweydog]

More precip moving onshore now, and better forcing with that front sagging south.

There is no front. This is weak shortwave/NW'erly flow scud moisture.

[Deweydog]

Had a fairly decent graupel/snow burst here. Gotta love how durable graupel is for accumulating.

[TT-SEA]

Indeed. The cold snap he was referring to last winter was nothing like this one.

 

 

Pretty similar results around here... 2-3 weeks of cold weather with snow on the ground but not much elsewhere.   Consistently cold enough to freeze the pond by our house.   

 

Difference was in the timing... this year was about 2 weeks earlier.  

[TT-SEA]

Just took the kids over to the pond near our house... 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Pretty similar results around here... 2-3 weeks of cold weather with snow on the ground but not much elsewhere.   Consistently cold enough to freeze the pond by our house.   

 

Difference was in the timing... this year was about 2 weeks earlier.  

 

This one is a lot colder...at least here.

[Bryant]

Christmas Day... gross!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121712/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

Good! We need a reset

[ShawniganLake]

85 acres.

Decent. Shawnigan hasn't frozen over significantly since 1993. But it's a big body of water.

[TT-SEA]

Good! We need a reset

 

 

That might be a good point.

[Bryant]

HRRR, NAM, and Para NAM, all agree with moisture moving in from the North around 11z-12z tonight/tomorrow

[TT-SEA]

This one is a lot colder...at least here.

 

 

I am reading through the first part of the January 2016 thread... you were talking about impressive cold, ponds freezing, tons of potential coming, etc.      

 

Very much like right now... just a couple weeks earlier than last year.

[snow_wizard]

Really nice improvements on the ECMWF ensemble.  It basically shows no ridge trying to build over the Inter Mountain region after the brief cold snap around the 22nd or 23rd of next week and is much sharper with the GOA / Aleutian blocking signal between Christmas and New Years.  The control model agrees.  The mean and control both show very cold air pushing southward through BC again during week 2.  Basically chilly to cold the entire period after day 5 or so.

[Bryant]

That might be a good point.

It has been painful up this way, and the snow cover image that was posted yesterday shows the distinct snow line just to my north. Plus, I don't think a return to Aleutian ridging will take long, and could pack a bigger punch the next go around

[snow_wizard]

Good! We need a reset

 

For sure.  I'm really liking the way things late month, but nobody seems to really care right now.  Pretty disappointing attitudes on here right now.

[snow_wizard]

It has been painful up this way, and the snow cover image that was posted yesterday shows the distinct snow line just to my north. Plus, I don't think a return to Aleutian ridging will take long, and could pack a bigger punch the next go around

 

So I take it you're on the northern edge of the big screw hole?

[Bryant]

For sure. I'm really liking the way things late month, but nobody seems to really care right now. Pretty disappointing attitudes on here right now.

I'd be surprised to see that quick of a turn around, but I'm all for it! Lots of potential this year

[Bryant]

So I take it you're on the northern edge of the big screw hole?

You got it!

[snow_wizard]

Snowing at an almost respectable clip right now.

[snow_wizard]

I'd be surprised to see that quick of a turn around, but I'm all for it! Lots of potential this year

 

I was pretty surprised at the improvement on the ECMWF ensemble today.  I was almost wondering if I was jumping the gun, but that gives me some confidence.

 

Somehow what we have been through seems more like a warning shot than the main course.  Such a different flavor to it than recent Arctic outbreaks.  The fact we have not gone for more than a two day period without lowland snow for about two weeks now is pretty interesting.