December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Light snow in Spanaway. Pretty cool!

 

First snow in 200 years. 

[BLI snowman]

Monday morning looking like it could be a quick little snow burst. Will be close.

[Jesse]

Looks like the sun could be coming out soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Deweydog]

White New Year's chances down to 59%?

[TT-SEA]

Light snow in Spanaway. Pretty cool!

 

 

Awesome!  

[Front Ranger]

These little systems are always difficult to predict for where/any snow occurs. Can't trust any model really - but you can't ever rule anything out.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a heavier area of moisture is about to enter the Seattle area. It will be interesting to see what that does. Nice to see the radar filling in for more places now.

 

Dropped to 18 here last night.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like a heavier area of moisture is about to enter the Seattle area. It will be interesting to see what that does. Nice to see the radar filling in for more places now.

 

Dropped to 18 here last night.

 

This might be the best snow event of the past two weeks. Sad. 

[Front Ranger]

Appears to be strait-effect snow...but going the opposite direction as usual. 

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a heavier area of moisture is about to enter the Seattle area. It will be interesting to see what that does. Nice to see the radar filling in for more places now.

 

Dropped to 18 here last night.

 

 

I don't think the heavier moisture is entering the Seattle area... pretty clear shadowing signature with this trajectory.

[Deweydog]

These little systems are always difficult to predict for where/any snow occurs. Can't trust any model really - but you can't ever rule anything out.

Wisdom.

[HighlandExperience]

I don't think the heavier moisture is entering the Seattle area... pretty clear shadowing signature with this trajectory.

The radar is filling up, but yes you are right. Looks like areas west of 167 getting heavily shadowed.

[Front Ranger]

The 12z hi-res para NAM did actually show some snow north of Seattle like what we're seeing now. This model has really impressed me the past couple weeks.

 

[snow_wizard]

Ironically the 12z ensemble has more cold members for late month than any of the previous runs.

[TT-SEA]

The radar is filling up, but yes you are right. Looks like areas west of 167 getting heavily shadowed.

 

 

Well... even out here its just extremely light flurries and this area is more exposed in NW flow like this as I have seen hundreds of times with light rain and drizzle.  

[snow_wizard]

The radar is filling up, but yes you are right. Looks like areas west of 167 getting heavily shadowed.

There is a nice blob of precip riding further west that is dropping down around Port Townsend now. That has potential.

[Front Ranger]

Wisdom.

 

Thanks.

 

It's what I was saying yesterday, as Tim was desperately citing models that showed no snow for anyone today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Be funny if there is clearing and temps are lower tonight at PDX

[snow_wizard]

Thanks.

 

It's what I was saying yesterday, as Tim was desperately citing models that showed no snow for anyone today.

I can't for the life of me figure out why he does that.

[TT-SEA]

Thanks.

 

It's what I was saying yesterday, as Tim was desperately citing models that showed no snow for anyone today.

 

Desperately?   I was just pointing out what the models we use were showing.  Those models might be right about actual measureable snow being negligible    And the NAM HIRES might be right about snow in the air.   

[Front Ranger]

Desperately?   I was just pointing out what the models we use were showing.  Those models might be right about actually measureable snow being negligible    And the NAM HIRES might be right about snow in the air.   

 

Right. And I was just telling you that this isn't a situation the models deal with very often or very well.

[TT-SEA]

I can't for the life of me figure out why he does that.

 

 

Does what?   Be realistic?     

 

The ECMWF, HRRR, and MM5 models did not show much of any measureable snow today.      

[TT-SEA]

Right. And I was just telling you that this isn't a situation the models deal with very often or very well.

 

But snow in the air is not going to really picked up by models showing measureable snow.  

 

Whatever.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like the flurries ended here, I hope there is more left. Radar doesn't seem to see this shallow precip very well. 

[Front Ranger]

But snow in the air is not going to really picked up by models showing measureable snow.  

 

Whatever.

 

There was a very real chance of measurable snow today, regardless of what the models showed. Not a lot likely, but some.

 

Just being realistic.

[TT-SEA]

Bordering on moderate snow here now. Everything is starting to get just a little coating of white.

 

Always nice to be surprised.

 

 

You are in a good spot based on trajectory.

[Front Ranger]

I think the Portland/Salem areas will have a decent chance for better precip later this afternoon based on the progress of this system.

[MossMan]

Flurryfest is getting a little more serious now!

[HighlandExperience]

Really is too bad we are not going to have a significant overrunning event.

 

#wastedcold

#storyofthelastseveralyears

[TT-SEA]

There was a very real chance of measurable snow today, regardless of what the models showed. Not a lot likely, but some.

 

Just being realistic.

 

Sure... it was a discussion.

 

Sorry I did not consider the need to over-hype everything on here for those who have not seen much snow. 

[Front Ranger]

Sure... it was a discussion.

 

Sorry I did not consider the need to over-hype everything on here for those who have not seen much snow. 

 

No one overhyped anything.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Flurryfest is getting a little more serious now!

Cottonwood trees.

[Front Ranger]

McChord AFB reporting 21 and light snow, after a low of 15 this morning.

[TT-SEA]

A few of the 12Z GFS ensemble members keep the system on Christmas day farther offshore or show it diving to the south of us... I assume that would keep it colder here at least.  

[Front Ranger]

Radar looking very promising now for Seattle/Everett area. Looks like a mix of strait effect and CZ.

[HighlandExperience]

Radar looking very promising now for Seattle/Everett area. Looks like a mix of strait effect and CZ.

More consolidated than it was earlier.

[MossMan]

Flurryfest 2016! My truck has nearly double the amount now!

[Front Ranger]

Looks like some snow is reaching the ground in Mukilteo.

 

[Phil]

Flurryfest 2016! My truck has nearly double the amount now!

Trade you my 1/4" of freezing rain for your dusting of snow?

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/57F4221B-DF72-44C2-9A9C-FE5020E6E6E1_zpsn8oy3ikz.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Does what?   Be realistic?     

 

The ECMWF, HRRR, and MM5 models did not show much of any measureable snow today.

 

https://youtu.be/ftZ3UCdTuWQ