December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Been getting a mix of snow/rain/graupel for the past hour or so. Temp 35 after waking up to 41.

 

 

C-zone energized and moving south again.   

 

Snow has stopped here right now but it looks like its going to be back very soon.

[Jbolin]

Impressive. Current 500mb temps

Portland -28c

Bellingham -38c

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/500mb/500mb_sf.gif?1480890059023

Chilly

[Bryant]

Not sure what the WRF-NMM is honestly, but it shows the I-5 corridor snow around 8am as well. Could be a messy commute if this verifies

[SilverFallsAndrew]

36 with sunbreaks.

 

[Deweydog]

44 here but the clouds look colder than that.  

[Perturbed Member]

Not sure what the WRF-NMM is honestly, but it shows the I-5 corridor snow around 8am as well. Could be a messy commute if this verifies

Would be nice but maybe a bit overdone? Showing snow awful close to the OR coast tomorrow. Hopefully we are all surprised. 

[BLI snowman]

18z looks aight.

[TT-SEA]

33.4 here with precip moving in again.  

[Weather101]

33.4 here with precip moving in again.

How much snow have you received so far?

[Perturbed Member]

NWS updated their WWA, thought they might reconsider their weird 700 ft forecast for seeing 1+ inch. Was hoping they might go with 620 or 625 ft instead.

[Perturbed Member]

I see that HIO is trying desperately to hit 50 today, currently 48...

[Gradient Keeper]

We are quite close to seeing a prolonged Wintry event with little to no moderation. Ensembles hinted at that possibility.

 

00z GFS in 4 hours 42 minutes!

[TT-SEA]

How much snow have you received so far?

 

 

Maybe 2-3 inches total with some melting in between.   Ground is solidly covered here and its snowing really hard right now.   

 

My boys are getting updates from their friends in the valley (around 400 feet) and its snowing there as well.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see that HIO is trying desperately to hit 50 today, currently 48...

 

The ability to achieve warmth at the valley floor level of the Western Valleys never ceases to amaze me. 

[Bryant]

Would be nice but maybe a bit overdone? Showing snow awful close to the OR coast tomorrow. Hopefully we are all surprised.

NAM used to bias too wet and too cold. Now it seems to possibly bias too warm...wet/dry is yet to be seen

[Perturbed Member]

The ability to achieve warmth at the valley floor level of the Western Valleys never ceases to amaze me. 

 

Yeah the only evidence that things are actually cooling down here is the dropping dew point. Down to 37 from 44 earlier today.

[Gradient Keeper]

[ Model Countdown ]

Next up....

*00z NAM in 2 hours 50 minutes

00z GFS in 4 hours 33 minutes

00z GEM in 5 hours 33 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 50 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland AFD says winter weather likely for the entire Willamette Valley Thursday morning. Several inches of snow possible in the metro area with the potential for significant icing. 

[TT-SEA]

Snowing just a little hard right now...

 

[Bryant]

18z is quite nice

[Goducks09]

From the Portland AFD...could get very interesting, although I am no fan of freezing rain.

 

"Current model solutions seem to indicate winds shifting

southerly at some point Thursday afternoon. However, the GEM has a
nightmare scenario of east winds continuing through Friday morning
with close to 2 inches of QPF in the period."

[TT-SEA]

Wow... its is dumping.

 

 

[stuffradio]

Wow... its is dumping.

 

 

You're so lucky

[Kayla]

DP's dropping off nicely at PDX this afternoon. Good news for Portland peeps near sea level hoping for sticking snow tomorrow morning.

[van city]

Wow... its is dumping.

 

 

I don't think any of us care of your snowy pictures as much as you may think.

[James Jones]

I don't think any of us care of your snowy pictures as much as you may think.

Eh, I think they're fine. Maybe they should go in the winter picture thread though.

[stuffradio]

I don't think any of us care of your snowy pictures as much as you may think.

We are living through his snowy pictures vicariously

[TT-SEA]

Here is the Snoqulamie Valley floor at 400 feet after that band passed through.     This should be encouraging for everyone tonight and tomorrow.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little snow falling...

 

[Trainwreck]

Is that a lightning strike I see in east pdx? Thunder snow!!

[HighlandExperience]

Here is the Snoqulamie Valley floor at 400 feet after that band passed through.     This should be encouraging for everyone tonight and tomorrow.

 

Good to see

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A little snow falling...

 

[crf450ish]

Also, no need to make an account if you don't want to

Indeed. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the ensembles are all over the place, but the trend the 10-14th is really good. 

[stuffradio]

All you guys with snow are lucky!

[Jesse]

Had a decent graupel shower move through about a half hour ago. Dropped the temp to 41. The ground is still white!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen says non-event below 1000' tomorrow. He says in the old days before the mesoscale models he would be forecasting a 1000' snow level tomorrow. 

[Phil]

That's a LOT of Arctic air across the continent on the 18z. At least we can't complain about a lackluster source region anymore.

[crf450ish]

That's a LOT of Arctic air across the continent on the 18z. At least we can't complain about a lackluster source region anymore.

With this much arctic air, doesn't it take an act of god to flush it out? Or can it be swept away with ease?

[Kayla]

Wow the ensembles are all over the place, but the trend the 10-14th is really good. 

 

Precipitation is the thing that really sticks out to me while still keeping it cold to extremely cold.