January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Interestingly... the ECMWF keeps the east wind going all weekend. No SW wind push.

 

Here is the wind map on Sunday afternoon... looks about the same on Saturday and Sunday.

 

The Portland area won't get a whiff of southerlies this weekend. History tells us that, just a very slow moderation with a gradual retraction of gorge influence. Monday will mix out as the air mass turns back over.

[Kayla]

looks like a decent, prolonged zr event for me...  

 

Yeah...lows are further offshore and weaker on this run. Ugly.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Try'in to get real...

 

Euro Hour 168  #DanglingCarrotKillShot2017

 

 

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

Cold is under lock and key.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Cold is under lock and key.

Canadian Border forcefield in full effect.

[TT-SEA]

Cold is under lock and key.

 

 

Yep... our big snowstorm for Tuesday and Wednesday that we discussed yesterday is basically gone this morning.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

ECMWF shows that it warms up significantly from Saturday into Monday morning with offshore flow still in place.

And that can be a result of the models not doing well with the amount of cold air to our east. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yep... our big snowstorm for Tuesday and Wednesday that we discussed yesterday is basically gone this morning.  

[Randyc321]

Interestingly... the ECMWF keeps the east wind going all weekend.    No SW wind push.

 

Here is the wind map on Sunday afternoon... looks about the same on Saturday and Sunday.

 

I realize this is a very simple question, but I am not that weather knowledgeable.

 

Will this keep back or at least dry out any incoming precip, and is there a chance that this may not let things warm up?

Thanks

[Deweydog]

Looks more and more like the pattern will need to reset.

[TT-SEA]

And that can be a result of the models not doing well with the amount of cold air to our east. 

 

 

Maybe... I am not expecting anything here this weekend.   Upper levels are just way too warm.   Its not like -1C or -2C will make a difference. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's weird SLE is warmer than everywhere else, that temp is legit though, 34 at my office here in Salem.

[TT-SEA]

I realize this is a very simple question, but I am not that weather knowledgeable.

 

Will this keep back or at least dry out any incoming precip, and is there a chance that this may not let things warm up?

Thanks

 

 

Appears the warm up will happen anyways... but the precip will definitely be lighter with offshore flow.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Cant wait until we can get some more cold air to our north...  Seems kinda meager this year. I can totally understand why we have been struggling here.  JUST NOTHIN to tap into....   

 

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's weird SLE is warmer than everywhere else, that temp is legit though, 34 at my office here in Salem.

got you beat at 35.5... I think I might get to 40 today. East winds a ***** here. Lots of compression and warming.

[TT-SEA]

got you beat at 35.5... I think I might get to 40 today.

 

 

25 here with a dewpoint of 4.   

 

Where is that D**n chapstick?  

[Kayla]

It's weird SLE is warmer than everywhere else, that temp is legit though, 34 at my office here in Salem.

 

Looks like PDX should stay below freezing pretty easily today with that east wind not easing anytime soon.

[HighlandExperience]

Canadian Border forcefield in full effect.

Basically getting screwed is our default setting

[BLI snowman]

Looks like PDX should stay below freezing pretty easily today with that east wind not easing anytime soon.

 

Looks like a 32 or 33 day to me. They've been flirting with subfreezing highs a lot this season, so far have yet to do it.

[Kayla]

Looks like a 32 or 33 day to me. They've been flirting with subfreezing highs a lot this season, so far have yet to do it.

 

31

[luvssnow_spokane]

Basically getting screwed is our default setting

After this latest letdown I have come to conclusion that we may get nothing this year. Low expectations for a number of reasons. I would not be surprised if we continue to lean more toward a coolish climo for awhile. It's a bummer but I have accepted it. 

[Deweydog]

31

The eternal optimist.

[Kayla]

The eternal optimist.

 

That's right! If they are gonna do it, today is the day. And Saturday.

[Deweydog]

That's right! If they are gonna do it, today is the day. And Saturday.

If they do it, they're probably gonna be right on the mark. Winter 2016-17's place in history depends on it.

[Jesse]

If they do it, they're probably gonna be right on the mark. Winter 2016-17's place in history depends on it.

 

Happy 10,000!

[Randyc321]

Appears the warm up will happen anyways... but the precip will definitely be lighter with offshore flow.  

 

Thanks.  It appears a miracle is needed to get snow in these parts this decade.

[TT-SEA]

31 at SEA now... looks like no days below freezing for them in this cold spell even with some snow beforehand.

[Deweydog]

Happy 10,000!

Thanks!!!

 

I'm forum fantastic!!!

[TT-SEA]

Thanks!!!

 

I'm forum fantastic!!!

 

 

6,910 to go to catch me.   You have been picking up the pace lately!  

[Deweydog]

6,910 to go to catch me. You have been picking up the pace lately!

I'll die off in a couple months or so. Weather quiets down and politics has lost its unpredictable appeal.

[TT-SEA]

I'll die off in a couple months or so. Weather quiets down and politics has lost its unpredictable appeal.

 

 

I don't think you understand the importance of securing a cold April to guarantee success next winter.

[Brennan]

Cold air in SW BC next week looks like the cold air in SW BC in 96... optimist!!!

[stuffradio]

I don't think you understand the importance of securing a cold April to guarantee success next winter.

I'm wishcasting a normal April instead of a cold April.

[Bryant]

Cold air in SW BC next week looks like the cold air in SW BC in 96... optimist!!!

Whatcom County special

[Deweydog]

I don't think you understand the importance of securing a cold April to guarantee success next winter.

I'm liking a cold November/February next winter.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

After this latest letdown I have come to conclusion that we may get nothing this year. Low expectations for a number of reasons. I would not be surprised if we continue to lean more toward a coolish climo for awhile. It's a bummer but I have accepted it. 

I like you but your getting ridiculous! Plenty of cards on the table and lots of time left.  

[Jesse]

I'll die off in a couple months or so. Weather quiets down and politics has lost its unpredictable appeal.

 

I doubt the Trump Presidency, or the weather this spring, will be anything close to predictable.

[Timmy Supercell]

I'll die off in a couple months or so. Weather quiets down and politics has lost its unpredictable appeal.

 

When t'storm season comes along people will realize what they could miss out on.

[MossMan]

Cold air in SW BC next week looks like the cold air in SW BC in 96... optimist!!!

I think we will end up tapping into some of it, at least Snohomish Co north.

[Deweydog]

I doubt the Trump Presidency, or the weather this spring, will be anything close to predictable.

ULL season and Twitter anxiety will combine in a way never, ever seen before. It will make The Day After Tomorrow look like today.