January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Goducks09]

The models are clearly underentrenching the cold.

 

Underentrenching.  I like it.  Almost like it's a real word.  

[Deweydog]

-1 at Pasco seems cold.

[umadbro]

The models are clearly underentrenching the cold.

They always do. I wouldn't be surprised if the areas by the gorge don't warm up until Monday night. Assuming tonight's 00z gfs smoked the 18d's usual stash

[Goducks09]

Then the GFS jumps off this weekend and flips to 50 degree rain. Other models painfully follow this trend...then the post mortum begins. Some here begin ranting about how much they hate it here while others post GIFS of angry outbursts. Phil then rears his head and posts something about the PV being in a coma.

 

Rinse & repeat.

 

It's like Groundhogs Day. Or, Groundhogs Winter I suppose.

[MossMan]

The models are clearly underentrenching the cold.

BEST BLOCK EVER!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some clearing now in E. Oregon and some very impressive temps starting to pop up.

 

-20 Christmas Valley S. Central Oregon 

-13 Joseph

-12 Ukiah

-11 Meacham

[Goducks09]

When is the ZR supposed to start on Saturday?  I want to join the masses at Fred Meyer at peak pre-storm shopping hours.

[luvssnow_spokane]

s**t is about to get real next week for Western wa next week.

Did you just shake you magic 8 ball and ask it? That is the only way you could know this. 

[Kayla]

That cold pool in Eastern Oregon is pretty impressive.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yep!! Hopefully Jim comes back!

You bet he will if the other models come on board and keeps showing it through the weekend. No reason to be to excited until after the weekend.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Did you just shake you magic 8 ball and ask it? That is the only way you could know this. 

I have early access to the Rod hill model. Except i am more accurate because I'm not a fukking alcoholic!!

[Jesse]

I can't decide if this place is worse after good runs or bad runs anymore.

[HighlandExperience]

You heard it here first...some of that amazing cold air just to our north will slip past the goalie and clip Washington...it will be a 1996 kind of a setup where Seattle north gets snow...Tacoma south freezing rain...Oregon RAIN ALL RAIN. 65 DEGREE RAIN. Yep you heard that correctly...Seattle north. Bam.

Mossman called it early.

[MossMan]

I can't decide if this place is worse after good runs or bad runs anymore.

Pedro?

[luvssnow_spokane]

I can't decide if this place is worse after good runs or bad runs anymore.

Nancy

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mossman called it early.

I talked about it 3 days ago.

[Jesse]

I feel like the MOS GFS has never been so unrealistically cold until this winter. Seems like it always used to run warm if anything.

 

Going with a low of 15 at PDX tonight, then a high of 25 tomorrow followed by 10 tomorrow night and another 25 Friday.

[Goducks09]

I can't decide if this place is worse after good runs or bad runs anymore.

 

It's the 'Boy who cried wolf" syndrome in effect.  Hard to latch onto anything more than 48 hours away with any great deal of confidence that it will actually transpire.  

[Goducks09]

I have early access to the Rod hill model. Except i am more accurate because I'm not a fukking alcoholic!!

 

Why is Rod an alcoholic?  Did I miss something?  Does Rod party hard?

[HighlandExperience]

I talked about it 3 days ago.

This is true

[Jesse]

It's the 'Boy who cried wolf" syndrome in effect. Hard to latch onto anything more than 48 hours away with any great deal of confidence that it will actually transpire.

I guess all there is left to do is freak the **** out.

[Blizzard777]

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017010500/144/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

 

WHERE THE FRIG IS ALL THE EXCITEMENT OVER THIS!?!?!?!?! EVEN THE SWAMP GETS IN ON IT!!!!

This would be sweet for us south sound folks!

 

Not getting my hopes up but wil enjoy the possibilities.

[umadbro]

I don't understand how two lows that far off the coast can erode the cold air that's entrenched here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yes, you are almost always intolerable regardless of any external forcings, to use Philspeak.

You're so mean... 

 

[Timmy]

Scappoose down to 19! Timber junction at 14!

[Deweydog]

I feel like the MOS GFS has never been so unrealistically cold until this winter. Seems like it always used to run warm if anything.

 

Going with a low of 15 at PDX tonight, then a high of 25 tomorrow followed by 10 tomorrow night and another 25 Friday.

Pretty reasonable.

[Deweydog]

I don't understand how two lows that far off the coast can erode the cold air that's entrenched here.

They won't.

[Kayla]

I don't understand how two lows that far off the coast can erode the cold air that's entrenched here.

 

Yeah, would definitely bet on the GEM or any other model that moderates us the slowest with the cold pool that we have now and those lows so far offshore.

[umadbro]

They won't.

Seems logical. But what about PNW weather is logical?

[umadbro]

Yeah, would definitely bet on the GEM or any other model that moderates us the slowest with the cold pool that we have now and those lows so far offshore.

That's not my point. I don't care what model does what.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What will be interesting to watch over the next two days is how well the low level cold entrenches itself and how deep the cold pool gets east side. They have a lot of snow cover to work with now.

[Bryant]

You're so mean...

 

tumblr_mb8ziyI0Gi1qeeuh8.gif

Have to agree with Jesse here... it has been pretty bad

[Timmy]

Lots of mightnight lows are likely today.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Have to agree with Jesse here... it has been pretty bad

 

Just horrid... I know... Sorry, I have First world problem struggles. I am getting counseling. Be patient   

 

Hey, in weather news how much snow you get up there? I have not heard much from you.

[Kayla]

That's not my point. I don't care what model does what.

 

You lost me... What's your point?

[Deweydog]

What will be interesting to watch over the next two days is how well the low level cold entrenches itself and how deep the cold pool gets east side. They have a lot of snow cover to work with now.

People need to remember this isn't an inversion pattern. A basin cold pool is traditionally a self-perpetuating entity based on being capped at 3,000 feet or so. This air mass stays pretty free-air. Any inversions will likely turn over each day.

[BLI snowman]

The lack of much of any onshore push being modeled is encouraging. The snow to ice to snow scenario would be exhilarating.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lots of mightnight lows are likely today.

I am already 7 degrees below my morning low. A respectable 30/15 now. I would expect to have at least 7 straight sub freezing highs, maybe 8 depending on WAA Saturday.

[umadbro]

You lost me... What's your point?

I probably misunderstood ya and took your post as sarcasm. I still need to learn the personalities here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

People need to remember this isn't an inversion pattern. A basin cold pool is traditionally a self-perpetuating entity based on being capped at 3,000 feet or so. This air mass stays pretty free-air. Any inversions will likely turn over each day.

So we are better off with an inversion or not?