January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Do you seeing things getting pretty bad for us east metro folks? Mark seems convinced.

 

I remember telling several people we were in for a damaging ice storm on the 8th and that never panned out. Although this time the low level airmass seems to have a little more bite.

Vancouver east of I-205 and south of about NE 18th Street will probably be the worst. I can see areas away from the drift moderating to around 32-33 later in the day as is typical with an air mass that will probably be around 30 or so when precip starts. You'll probably be in for a pretty high impact event.

 

Portland is gonna be a mess east of I-5 and north of Powell or so.

[Jesse]

I'd still call that signficant. Haha. Semantics I guess. 

 

Significant, maybe. But not damaging, at least here.

[wx_statman]

Significant, maybe. But not damaging, at least here.

 

True. That's probably not considered a "damaging" event, per se. Although we're still talking semantics.

 

I went through Parkrose on the night of the 8th and there was a lot of ice accumulation there. Easily in the 0.5" to 1.0" range. Same story at Cascade Station on the morning of the 9th. It had the look of a high impact freezing rain event.

[Jesse]

True. That's probably not considered a "damaging" event, per se. Although we're still talking semantics.

 

I went through Parkrose on the night of the 8th and there was a lot of ice accumulation there. Easily in the 0.5" to 1.0" range. Same story at Cascade Station on the morning of the 9th. It had the look of a high impact freezing rain event.

NE Portland probably got it a little worse than up here. They seem to be more in the direct path of outflow than areas of similar longitude in east Vancouver, probably due to the shape of the terrain to the east. The Gorge has a distinctive NE to SW orientation between Cascade Locks and Corbett or thereabouts.

[Tyler Mode]

Driving back and forth to NE Portland for work, I notice the north cut off is about Mill Plain.  My brother drives in from Clackamas and says anywhere north of Foster (exit 17) is the cutoff there.  To the west, I think it goes to the west hills.  This last week downtown Vancouver had a decent amount of ice, while up here in BG it was 34-35 and raining.

[Deweydog]

Driving back and forth to NE Portland for work, I notice the north cut off is about Mill Plain. My brother drives in from Clackamas and says anywhere north of Foster (exit 17) is the cutoff there. To the west, I think it goes to the west hills. This last week downtown Vancouver had a decent amount of ice, while up here in BG it was 34-35 and raining.

Yeah, outside of the true outflow spots if temps don't start out well into the 20's it's hard to see any persistent icing. It's been since 2004 since Clark County has seen a major icing event for this reason. Obviously 2008 would have been major but ice thankfully turned back to snow.

[wx_statman]

NE Portland probably got it a little worse than up here. They seem to be more in the direct path of outflow than areas of similar longitude in east Vancouver, probably due to the shape of the terrain to the east. The Gorge has a distinctive NE to SW orientation between Cascade Locks and Corbett or thereabouts.

 

That's a good point. But I was always under the impression that East Vancouver got hit pretty much as hard as NE Portland, just due to proximity. I've never traveled up there during an ice storm though, so I've never given it too much thought. 

[DareDuck]

Above freezing in Bend for only the 3rd time in 2017. Still haven't been above 34 this year. Could change momentarily.

[snow_wizard]

Well, they're called thunderstorms for a reason. They produce lightning and thunder. A cell that lasts 10 minutes, produces a few lightning strikes, then dies barely even qualifies IMO. Where's the fun in that?

 

That adrenaline rush during a legitimate, severe caliber thunderstorm is almost an addiction to me, and if you ever experience one, I'm sure you'll agree. Lightning bolts raining down from the sky, sheets of rain blown sideways by high winds, and the occasional "blender" when hail enters the picture..it's something that (usually) makes summer tolerable for me.

 

I'm talking about all night thunderstorms.  The west can produce some very long lasting events that produce spectacular lighting.  Even here I had one last 18 hours in 2008.

[DareDuck]

Guys, Phil like thunderstorms. At least that's what I've gathered from his last 50 posts.

[Deweydog]

Guys, Phil like thunderstorms. At least that's what I've gathered from his last 50 posts.

Only severe ones with 215 mph wind gusts on Maryland mountain tops.

[snow_wizard]

Fascinating to note that in the time since SEA last saw a 32F or lower maximum (2/6/2014), PDX has seen eight of them. Soon to be nine.

 

Likely a pretty unprecedented disparity. 

 

Still a huge number of sub 40 highs though.  With low dew point they are just as good as 32 degree highs for freezing lakes and keeping snow around.  Interesting stat though.

[Timmy]

Above freezing in Bend for only the 3rd time in 2017. Still haven't been above 34 this year. Could change momentarily.

crazy to think I have only hit 33 this month so far once!

[snow_wizard]

Well the tropical forcing is different, so we'll have to get there a different way. That doesn't mean it won't happen, it'll just require a different conduit.

 

It doesn't have to (and won't) resemble December/January.

 

Thank God.  Maybe we'll get a chance this time.

[snow_wizard]

Snowcover here since December 5th, second longest duration I can remember. 2008-2009 was in the 70ish day range.

 

The outflow hasn't been overly impressive but it has been consistent. The Fraser canyon is north south orientated and just seems to deliver the cold more directly and effectively when the Arctic air is delivered from the north rather than the ENE. The cold snaps the last several years have generally introduced the cold in a slower and somewhat moderated fashion. January 2012 for instance, produced afternoon highs at Abbotsford as cold as any nighttime lows have been this season, even with all the clear skies we have seen.

 

Time to do a post mortem on 2013-14 and this winter and see what 500mb differences there have been that have caused the Fraser outflow to be less forceful / cold.  I know with the cold waves this season the CAA has just been too slow to allow situations that could have easily been snow here.  At the same time a weaker blast probably favored SW BC because it didn't overpower the moisture too quickly.  Just a perfect storm of failure for Seattle.

[Phil]

I'm talking about all night thunderstorms. The west can produce some very long lasting events that produce spectacular lighting. Even here I had one last 18 hours in 2008.

That's common everywhere. At least one night per week here is filled with flashbulb lightning in summer. Doesn't make it severe or worth tracking.

 

The big stuff is what most wx-weenies crave.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Time to do a post mortem on 2013-14 and this winter and see what 500mb differences there have been that have caused the Fraser outflow to be less forceful / cold.  I know with the cold waves this season the CAA has just been too slow to allow situations that could have easily been snow here.  At the same time a weaker blast probably favored SW BC because it didn't overpower the moisture too quickly.  Just a perfect storm of failure for Seattle.

 

I think he is right. The lack of meaningful cold in BC has definitely been a contributing factor. 

[Deweydog]

Time to do a post mortem on 2013-14 and this winter and see what 500mb differences there have been that have caused the Fraser outflow to be less forceful / cold. I know with the cold waves this season the CAA has just been too slow to allow situations that could have easily been snow here. At the same time a weaker blast probably favored SW BC because it didn't overpower the moisture too quickly. Just a perfect storm of failure for Seattle.

The Puget Sound was generally caught in between. Hell, even we were pretty much in that boat until Tuesday's miracle. Most of the coldest air stayed north of the border while jet energy remained focused well to the south.

[Phil]

Guys, Phil like thunderstorms. At least that's what I've gathered from his last 50 posts.

I'm bored lol. Cramming for an oral presentation tomorrow and doing anything I can to procrastinate.

[jakeinthevalley]

Brookings is 61 at this hour. Road Trip?

[wx_statman]

For truly monstrous Fraser outflow like that seen in January 1950, you also need record cold in the interior of BC. Sounds like a simplistic thing to say, but the numbers really back it up. 

 

For example, Prince George averaged -19.7F in January 1950, or nearly 38 degrees below normal! That sort of cold will fuel the Fraser outflow necessary to deliver a monthly average of 24F to SEA. 

 

Compare to December 2016, which averaged 10.0F - an impressively cold month, some 9 degrees below normal - but nowhere near the madness of January 1950. 

[wx_statman]

Brookings is 61 at this hour. Road Trip?

 

61 at BOK and 7 at BKE. Nice temp spread across the state

[snow_wizard]

That's common everywhere. At least one night per week here is filled with flashbulb lightning in summer. Doesn't make it severe or worth tracking.

 

The big stuff is what most wx-weenies crave.

 

Fine.  I really don't care.

[snow_wizard]

The Puget Sound was generally caught in between. Hell, even we were pretty much in that boat until Tuesday's miracle. Most of the coldest air stayed north of the border while jet energy remained focused well to the south.

 

I think you guys had a decent snow in December also.  This is probably just about as lopsided as December 1919.  Just really stings after 2013-14.

[snow_wizard]

For truly monstrous Fraser outflow like that seen in January 1950, you also need record cold in the interior of BC. Sounds like a simplistic thing to say, but the numbers really back it up. 

 

For example, Prince George averaged -19.7F in January 1950, or nearly 38 degrees below normal! That sort of cold will fuel the Fraser outflow necessary to deliver a monthly average of 24F to SEA. 

 

Compare to December 2016, which averaged 10.0F - an impressively cold month, some 9 degrees below normal - but nowhere near the madness of January 1950. 

 

Yeah...we just haven't been seeing the vodka cold develop in NW Canada before the blocking patterns set up.

[jakeinthevalley]

61 at BOK and 7 at BKE. Nice temp spread across the state

Well, it can be 100f in the valley and only in the mid 50's on the coast about 35 miles away, as the crow flies, so there's that!!

[Deweydog]

I think you guys had a decent snow in December also. This is probably just about as lopsided as December 1919. Just really stings after 2013-14.

We did have snow in December, but I'm speaking more from an analytical perspective. The best jet dynamics have been south of the Columbia River with pretty much every cold system this winter.

[Phil]

18z GFS definitely improved w/ the Eurasian wavetrain and WPO spike. Let's see how it translates downstream.

[snow_wizard]

I think he is right. The lack of meaningful cold in BC has definitely been a contributing factor. 

 

No doubt.  Seattle usually does well with the flash freeze situations.  The cold comes so suddenly the moisture doesn't have time to exit before it is being wrung out of the atmosphere by the dry  / cold air.  That is about the most dramatic winter weather we get here.  Everything freezes just about instantly when one of those comes through.  I almost feel like it's never going to happen again.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Time to do a post mortem on 2013-14 and this winter and see what 500mb differences there have been that have caused the Fraser outflow to be less forceful / cold.  I know with the cold waves this season the CAA has just been too slow to allow situations that could have easily been snow here.  At the same time a weaker blast probably favored SW BC because it didn't overpower the moisture too quickly.  Just a perfect storm of failure for Seattle.

 

 

You would think so, but in actual fact it was a bit of a mixed bag. Practically every event was borderline. Areas near sea level generally stayed too mild for significant snowfall, while elevated areas (300 ft and up) scored some pretty healthy totals. I'm at about 200 ft, so I was sort of in between - I've scored just under 20". If winter were to end today, I'd be slightly below average. There are quite a few sea level areas up here that have probably scored less snowfall than PDX this winter. We tend to do much better with strong CAA.

[Phil]

18z GFS definitely improved w/ the Eurasian wavetrain and WPO spike. Let's see how it translates downstream.

Ha, complete fail-job..NPAC just won't have any of it.

 

Classic example of a tropically forced +EPO loading pattern over the Pacific (broad ridge south of the Aleutians). Speeds up the jet and TWGs, hence the cyclonic train.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is pretty lame. 

[Deweydog]

Clock's ticking...

[Phil]

Very frustrating year, both in terms of forecasting and the wasted potential w/ the general progression. Almost ready to put this winter behind me and look onward.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clock's ticking...

 

Mark Nelsen is sharpening the forks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What happened to my Avatar?!

[Deweydog]

Mark Nelsen is sharpening the forks.

May only have six or eight days below freezing left in the chamber.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

May only have six or eight days below freezing left in the chamber.

 

Maybe even for lows...What was it 2010 when PDX only had 13 sub-freezing lows or something like that. 

[snow_wizard]

Ha, complete fail-job..NPAC just won't have any of it.

 

Classic example of a tropically forced +EPO loading pattern over the Pacific (broad ridge south of the Aleutians). Speeds up the jet and TWGs, hence the cyclonic train.

 

I guess we just have to remember what has been the default pattern.  It will probably go back to it.  The ECMWF ensemble has been looking promising.

[Perturbed Member]

I find this to be a bit amusing. The very high resolution WRF 1.33km had PDX to 46F today by 4 PM today while showing east winds at the surface. 

 

Looks like PDX didn't even make it to 30F. The WRF sure has been absolutely pathetic recently. Remember it showed T-1 inch for PDX just hours before we got over a foot and now it only missed the temp forecast by about 17 degrees just a few hours out. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d4/kpdx.12.0000.snd.gif