January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

1.25"?

Probably less.

[Jesse]

Probably less.

 

The DWS needs to get with it. I think they are just copy/pasting their 1/10-11 forecast right now.

[Deweydog]

The DWS needs to get with it. I think they are just copy/pasting their 1/10-11 forecast right now.

What's your call?

[Jesse]

What's your call?

.25"-4"

[Deweydog]

Not too much like 12-8, that was a more traditional overrunning scenario.

 

This will be about deformation along a stalled boundary, so inherently hard to predict. Fairly similar to what produced the storm in late February 2014 in Whatcom County, also quite similar to a setup in mid February 1980.

Shades of January 1998 if you squint really hard and pick the right model.

[Front Ranger]

We have Portlandia. Seattle hasn't had a major show since Frasier. And his apartment wasn't even physically possible.

 

I'm not a fan, but Grey's Anatomy was pretty big.

[Deweydog]

.25"-4"

Sounds like you're going with a DWS/NWS/WWS blend.

[BLI snowman]

Shades of January 1998 if you squint really hard and pick the right model.

 

Not going to be as cold or as juicy, but definitely some similarities there too.

[BLI snowman]

Euro looks a little more backdoor-ish than the other modes, thus less favorable for deformation. 

[Jesse]

This ridge ended up a lot dirtier/cloudier than expected. 

 

The only day this week that really had anything close to full sunshine was Friday.

 

A couple very nice sunrises though.

[Jesse]

No love for the third week of March?

 

Winter ends on the Ides this year.

[Perturbed Member]

12z euro is the most generous I've seen it with bringing in the cold air. At least there is that.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017012912/ecmwf_T850_nwus_4.png

[epiceast]

BTW is Tim really on preview or banned? Haven't seen his Euro snow maps recently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW is Tim really on preview or banned? Haven't seen his Euro snow maps recently.

Vacation I think

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks a little more backdoor-ish than the other modes, thus less favorable for deformation. 

Yea, it is showing basically nothing west of the cascades. 

[epiceast]

Wunderbar Euro is back! The shitty maps will do until Tim or whoever posts the snowfall maps.

[ShawniganLake]

Wunderbar Euro is back! The shitty maps will do until Tim or whoever posts the snowfall maps.

I can never get that site to show the euro with any consistency.  Where would you like to know euro snowfall amounts for?

[Phil]

ECMWF brought back the SSW last night, holds it today and actually brings back the favorable momentum flux which splits the vortex in two.

 

The GFS is trending that way now as well.

[epiceast]

I can never get that site to show the euro with any consistency.  Where would you like to know euro snowfall amounts for?

Big west coast map for total Euro snowfall up to next weekend(Saturday 00z).

[Jesse]

ECMWF brought back the SSW last night, holds it today and actually brings back the favorable momentum flux which splits the vortex in two.

 

The GFS is trending that way now as well.

 

Seems like the 12Z Euro was a step back though, at least to my untrained eyes.

 

Huge differences in the 00Z Euro and 12Z Euro days 6 and beyond. 00Z looked much more favorable for cold remaining centered over the west in the long range.

[Jesse]

Big west coast map for total Euro snowfall up to next weekend(Saturday 00z).

 

Have a blank spot on your wall you want covered?

[Phil]

Seems like the 12Z Euro was a step back though, at least to my untrained eyes.

 

Huge differences in the 00Z Euro and 12Z Euro days 6 and beyond. 00Z looked much more favorable for cold remaining centered over the west in the long range.

Yeah, the tropical convection is different on the 12z, so the pattern responds differently. Still looks better than the GFS/GGEM to me, however.

[epiceast]

Have a blank spot on your wall you want covered?

Only if it shows 25"+ necessary to beat highest observed annual snowfall at MSO.

[ShawniganLake]

[epiceast]

untitled.png

Thanks. Looks like Euro is not very bullish on the snow amounts from this, highest valley accumulations are 6". The map does look a little weird, upper snake river valley gets a lot less snow than here but Tetons & adjacent mountain rangers do much better than the Bitterroots.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Oh, just looked out and it's raining now, it's been awhile since we've seen any rain. This month will be more go down as more notable for how dry it's been rather than how cold it's been in Victoria; not very enjoyable from a weather watch perspective.

 

It doesn't look like the outflow will hold up for long this coming week, it will be interesting to see if it takes longer to seep in than predicted. The ECMWF continues to look the most promising of the two models for any sort of a northern overrunning event, being the most aggressive with the approaching low on Thursday.

[Jesse]

Looks like another seasonably chilly day on tap down here. This has been a really enjoyable month.

[Timmy Supercell]

A bunch of mid 40's early February coming up. Whatever snow comes down will be a night time sticking/daytime melting kind of scenario. 

[Jesse]

A bunch of mid 40's early February coming up. Whatever snow comes down will be a night time sticking/daytime melting kind of scenario. 

 

That's your favorite kind of snow right?

[Timmy Supercell]

That's your favorite kind of snow right?

 

Close. Large chunky wet snow preferably

[Perturbed Member]

18z NAM shows the deformation band pretty well here

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012918/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_45.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012918/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_48.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012918/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012918/namconus_asnow_nwus_29.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sw Washington the big winner?!

[epiceast]

I have a feeling 00z run will give us a pretty clear picture if the models more or less agree on one solution. The entire event will be within NAM range, and it'll be 24 away from HRRR range before the first raindrop/snowflake falls. If they don't they'll probably end up playing catch up all the way to the event.

[ShawniganLake]

Sw Washington the big winner?!

A notch farther north and Jim may get some. 

[Jesse]

A notch farther north and Jim may get some.

I'd sacrifice seeing anything here for that to happen.

[Perturbed Member]

A notch farther north and Jim may get some. 

 

Will be interesting to see how far north that band makes it, hopefully it can hit SEA. This NAM run might be the most widespread snow solution we've seen for this setup?

[Heavy Snow]

18z NAM shows the deformation band pretty well here

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012918/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_45.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012918/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_48.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012918/namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_52.png

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017012918/namconus_asnow_nwus_29.png

Great to see the NAM on board and showing the deformation band. I like PDX Metro's chances this week to score something big.

[ShawniganLake]

I'd sacrifice seeing anything here for that to happen.

Yea.  It would be good for him.  I have someone very close to me who deals with mental illness.  Its not fun and not something he can control.  A few inches might help ease his bitterness until things actually turnaround for the sound. 

[Bryant]

I'd sacrifice seeing anything here for that to happen.

I miss seeing puget sound posters. We see a few of em here and there, but nothing like we used to

[epiceast]

18z looks a little further north(particularly over PNW proper, not so much here) and a little stronger than 12z NAM.