January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I blame dome buster's density.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Would be quite ironic if the one time the low trends north this winter, is actually the one time we don't want it to

 

Was just thinking about this as well. This time even you Washington guys need this going south or at least moving in slower.

[MossMan]

I think it is about time he charges his phone.

There we go!

[luvssnow_spokane]

You need help. For something as uncontrollable as the weather to make you act this way for as long as you have is undeniably worrisome. I hope you don't have any guns.

Lmao ...Wow! Your wierd... I am fine... lol!!! I find it comical and it was sarcasm... I own three guns and have been licsensed to carry for over 10 years. I live a totally normal life and have a beautiful life and family.

[Jesse]

Complex pattern. Let us all remember that this is a relatively recent development in the behavior of the energy dropping over the ridge. Just a few days ago it looked pretty certain that we would see the brush with cold air we are currently experiencing followed by quick a transition to mild rain by the weekend. Trough staying well to the north and undercutting the block. Then we saw explosive improvement on the models/ensembles pretty much all at once.

 

Whenever things change that quickly I am always skeptical. It's an inherenty unstable setup prone to wild swings. At least one run thinking it smells BS at some point was almost inevitable.

[luvssnow_spokane]

On to the Euro... Shall the theme of this winter continue? Shall the euro show promise? Who knows! Weeeeeee!

[Trainwreck]

Funny a$$ $hit right there. Lol

[MossMan]

On to the Euro... Shall the theme of this winter continue? Shall the euro show promise? Who knows! Weeeeeee!

I think we are now in the timeframe where the GFS tries everything in its 3rd grade power to make sure it doesn't show any snow west of the cascades.

[Perturbed Member]

Washington lowland snowstorm is still on as per the GEM despite the SW low coming north and trying to throw a wrench in things.

 

Out to HR156

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017020100/gem_asnow_nwus_26.png

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well the 0z GEM is still promising, it does eventually get cold for everyone, much better than anything shown on the GFS. Small differences in the interaction between the lows will have a large impact even 24 hours out.

[Jesse]

I think we are now in the timeframe where the GFS tries everything in its 3rd grade power to make sure it doesn't show any snow west of the cascades.

 

You mean the mid-range warm bias that I completely made up that we've seen play out three or four times this winter now?

[BLI snowman]

This has never looked like anything to write home about down here. After great thought, I have decided that I will probably be able to move on pretty quickly from this.

[Deweydog]

This has never looked like anything to write home about down here. After great thought, I have decided that I will probably be able to move on pretty quickly from this.

I'm tired of school being closed.

 

Save it for next November.

[BLI snowman]

I'm tired of school being closed.

 

Save it for next November.

Yeah, snow around Veteran's Day just feels more magical to me.

[Jesse]

I'm tired of school being closed.

 

Save it for next November.

 

Kranky kodger!!

[umadbro]

I haven't been sold on this event for. Few days. I've said to others that this will likely be a short sleet/zr event that transistions to cold rain relatively quickly. We'll be above freezing before midnight on Thursday. Except in the usual gorge outflow spots.

[Deweydog]

Kranky kodger!!

Sorry.

 

If it can manage to do it on the weekend entirely or over spring break, I'm all for it.

[Jesse]

Sorry.

 

If it can manage to do it on the weekend entirely or over spring break, I'm all for it.

 

I hope you get 2.51"

[Deweydog]

I hope you get 2.51"

Flooding!!!

[Jesse]

I haven't been sold on this event for. Few days. I've said to others that this will likely be a short sleet/zr event that transistions to cold rain relatively quickly. We'll be above freezing before midnight on Thursday. Except in the usual gorge outflow spots.

 

Mark better watch his job!

[umadbro]

Mark better watch his job!

What does this have to do with anything?

[Deweydog]

What does this have to do with anything?

Mark can only be questioned if his forecast is warm and underwhelming.

[Guest Sounder]

What does this have to do with anything?

You are speaking as if you are some kind of authoritative voice on forecasting when in reality most people would trust Phil's self reported address history before they'd listen to your analysis. You were basing those comments on absolutely nothing more than your little weenie gut feeling.

[Brennan]

Any predictions on the 0z euro???

[Jesse]

Mark can only be questioned if his forecast is warm and underwhelming.

 

He wasn't questioning Mark. 

[umadbro]

How am I acting? I'm just giving my prediction. Not gunning for someone's job. Jesus Christ. Get over yourself.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Any predictions on the 0z euro???

Will look more like the GFS... I only say this based on the past patterns this year. I hope it looks awesome!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Any predictions on the 0z euro???

 

It will bring hope for change!

[Perturbed Member]

Any predictions on the 0z euro???

 

I think it will stick to its guns. Snow at least from OLM to BC is my prediction. Not that this prediction is based on anything objective. 

[Jesse]

How am I acting? I'm just giving my prediction. Not gunning for someone's job. Jesus Christ. Get over yourself.

 

Umadbro?

 

Edit: Sorry, I couldn't see your avatar for a second. I was trying to make sure it was you.

[luvssnow_spokane]

You are speaking as if you are some kind of authoritative voice on forecasting when in reality most people would trust Phil's self reported address history before they'd listen to your analysis. You were basing those comments on absolutely nothing more than your little weenie gut feeling.

As do about 70% of the people on this board at one time or another.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I think it will stick to its guns. Snow at least from OLM to BC is my prediction. Not that this prediction is based on anything objective.

Selfish!

[Heavy Snow]

Any predictions on the 0z euro???

 

After seeing the 00z UKMET and seeing how it closely resembles the GFS, then I will say it will it wont look good and show what the 00z GFS showed. With that being said, this could just be normal model flip flopping and I'm hoping it shows something similar to it's 12z run earlier today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How am I acting? I'm just giving my prediction. Not gunning for someone's job. Jesus Christ. Get over yourself.

 

I love this guy!!!! ^^^^^^

[BLI snowman]

In all seriousness, 1"+ of snow on Thursday-Friday isn't going to happen for the Portland area. It's not a good setup.

[Deweydog]

In all seriousness, 1"+ of snow on Thursday-Friday isn't going to happen for the Portland area. It's not a good setup.

Duh.

[luvssnow_spokane]

After seeing the 00z UKMET and seeing how it closely resembles the GFS, then I will say it will it wont look good and show what the 00z GFS showed. With that being said, this could just be normal model flip flopping and I'm hoping it shows something similar to it's 12z run earlier today.

I hope it is is a flip or a flop but my best guess is based on the atmosphere patterns this season I would be surprised if in the end the final result looks more like what was represented.... I have been so used to things going bad for us this year my expectations are low.

[umadbro]

In all seriousness, 1"+ of snow on Thursday-Friday isn't going to happen for the Portland area. It's not a good setup.

Mark better watch out for his job!

[BLI snowman]

Duh.

Mark said 1-2". Guy needs to go back to the minors.

[BLI snowman]

Mark better watch out for his job!

Davenport, IA here he comes!