luminen Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 You know we will pay for all of this winter weather by getting nothing the next 3-5 winters. I think 17-18 will suck compared to this winter but 18-19 should be a decent one. You know, the 8/9 thingy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I think 17-18 will suck compared to this winter but 18-19 should be a decent one. You know, the 8/9 thingy. As long as I get a lot of wet snow in March and April I am good... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 According to the 00z NAM, this is the total precip that falls over PDX that is frozen. Several of the bands just split and fall apart as they lift north. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020100/namconus_apcpn_nwus_23.png Basically nothing. By the time any real precip arrives, it is shown as all rain. NAM thinks no one gets any real snow out of this on the west side of the cascades. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017020100/namconus_asnow_nwus_29.png The 3km 00z NAM has a deformation band ahead of the low trying to move north into PDX but it gets obliterated by the dry east winds. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017020100/nam3km_ref_frzn_nwus_33.png I looked at the pivotal weather website and it shows the deformation band from the 00z NAM 3km a little better. Here is what it shows at Thursday 2am. It shows a solid band from about midnight to 4am. This could throw a wrench in the forecast if this materializes. It's a long shot but you never know. The deformation band looks solid from the maps. http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017020100/034/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Two camps on the GFS ensembles, one warm, one cold. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Two camps on the GFS ensembles, one warm, one cold.Reminds me of how the next few days looked until they finally flipped to cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Reminds me of how the next few days looked until they finally flipped to cold.Glad to see someone from down that way rooting for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Glad to see someone from down that way rooting for us I try. Being greeedy and only caring about my location is wearisome on the soul. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I try. Being greeedy and only caring about my location is wearisome on the soul.Kinda like blocking people on social media because they said the snow will transition to sleet soon. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Kinda like blocking people on social media because they said the snow will transition to sleet soon.My soul felt lighter after that! I try to stay away from that whole shady Facebook weather group scene. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I was expecting more of an outflow, but I barely noticed it today even as dewpoints fell to 14F. A much nicer transition to the cool dry airmass than some of the outflows we had in January. I'm still optimistic about the overrunning event on Friday if we can avoid getting screwed on the precipitation again. The 0z ECMWF looks a little better than the 0z GFS so far on every frame, I like that it has the low coming in a bit further south on Friday. The ECMWF has definitely been the most consistent of the models with the upcoming event so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 28 currently. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I looked at the pivotal weather website and it shows the deformation band from the 00z NAM 3km a little better. Here is what it shows at Thursday 2am. It shows a solid band from about midnight to 4am. This could throw a wrench in the forecast if this materializes. It's a long shot but you never know. The deformation band looks solid from the maps. http://maps4.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam3km/2017020100/034/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.pngInteresting find. It would be a pleasant surprise if we got a half decent deformation band like that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I think 17-18 will suck compared to this winter but 18-19 should be a decent one. You know, the 8/9 thingy. It's become clear that the most important factor for 21st century PNW winters is getting a new president elected. Therefore, no one here should be rooting for a second term of Trump. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I was expecting more of an outflow, but I barely noticed it today even as dewpoints fell to 14F. A much nicer transition to the cool dry airmass than some of the outflows we had in January. I'm still optimistic about the overrunning event on Friday if we can avoid getting screwed on the precipitation again. The 0z ECMWF looks a little better than the 0z GFS so far on every frame, I like that it has the low coming in a bit further south on Friday. The ECMWF has definitely been the most consistent of the models with the upcoming event so far. Without seeing the snow output, certainly looks pretty good for areas north of Seattle. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Without seeing the snow output, certainly looks pretty good for areas north of Seattle. Yes... pretty good from Seattle northward. This mostly occurs Friday. Too warm for lowland snow on Saturday on this run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 00Z ECMWF is WAY warmer on Sunday compared to its 12Z run. For SEA on Sunday afternoon... 12Z run was at -6C and the 00Z run shows +2C. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I expect Mark will be revising his 1-2 inch forecast for Friday. Trace to 1 inch with almost everyone closer to trace sounds more realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Yes... pretty good from Seattle northward. This mostly occurs Friday. Too warm for lowland snow on Saturday on this run. Nice, I do see a lot of potential with this overrun; we have a low that started its journey just north of Hawaii running into a cold/dry airmass with a nice track and without much time for scouring. Unfortunately, it looks like it caved to the NAM/GFS solution afterward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 So irritating Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 The big deformation band snowstorm on 12Z ECMWF for next Monday... gone on the 00Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 So irritating I blame Phil's self-congratulating earlier today. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Epic fail.... Buhawawawaa! I am sure one of these patterns will deliver for us around April *sun angles are a ***** though* Previous Runs Tonight's Runs Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I'm sure NWS Portland is stoked about leaving that WSW dangling out there. They've had a rough winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I blame Phil's self-congratulating earlier today. I blame snow wizard for not having a meltdown sooner. Oh well... LOL! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 The big deformation band snowstorm on 12Z ECMWF for next Monday... gone on the 00Z run.My fault...I told everyone we were going to have big time snow next week. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 So irritatingOf course we get screwed again. This entire winter has been a joke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 My fault...I told everyone we were going to have big time snow next week.Lol, why would you do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 My fault...I told everyone we were going to have big time snow next week.Noooo I take the blame for saying this was a joke and turn into a bust and told everyone that this would not verify in my pure panicked sarcastic tone where everyone thinks I am serious.... . I am to blame. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I blame snow wizard for not having a meltdown sooner. Oh well... LOL! You should have maintained your negativity for longer. Mark should have listened to Dome Buster. NWS Portland should have smoked better weed. Lots of little mistakes. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Of course we get screwed again. This entire winter has been a joke.Big time. Can't even get a half a** windstorm out of this horrifically dull winter. Bring on the sun and warmth. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Mark remarking about how GFS MOS and WRF show temps too warm for much of any snow or even ZR. Much warmer than what we saw leading up to the last event. NWS WSW on schedule to bust as expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Total snowfall for Seattle on the 12Z ECMWF was around 13-14 inches... on the 00Z run its less than an inch. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 It still doesn't end up looking too bad out at hour 168 (better than the GFS anyway), though this time frame seems kind of irrelevant now with how unstable things become. Go GEM! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Big time. Can't even get a half a** windstorm out of this horrifically dull winter. Bring on the sun and warmth. Which would you prefer, winter 2015-16 or 2016-17? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Total snowfall for Seattle on the 12Z ECMWF was around 13-14 inches... on the 00Z run its less than an inch. Can you post the Snowfall map. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Wow the models have been horrible all winter long, even the King Euro has been a joke...SUN AND WARMTH!!! I'm so done with this crap fest of a winter. Might need to buy a new boat! Retail therapy! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 It still doesn't end up looking too bad out at hour 168 (better than the GFS anyway), though this time frame seems kind of irrelevant now with how unstable things become. Go GEM! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png I think the main issue is that the blocking is just too far north overall in this pattern. You want better offshore height rises, instead of these floating blocks that are centered squarely over Alaska. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Which would you prefer, winter 2015-16 or 2016-17?Without a doubt 15-16...we had a couple of awesome windstorms! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 I think the main issue is that the blocking is just too far north overall in this pattern. You want better offshore height rises, instead of these floating blocks that are centered squarely over Alaska.Better offshore height rises have proven to favor a southern storm track this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2017 Report Share Posted February 1, 2017 Can you post the Snowfall map. Total snow through next Wednesday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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