February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Unless a similar to match 2012 setup happens. Pdx is done for snow this winter.

 

This is just my opinion. No need to get all scientific or Jesse like on me.

I will take it as a compliment that scienfitic and Jesse-like are synonyms.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really looking like a pretty dull coolish pattern the next 5-7 days. Nothing really notable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z teasing again with that departing low Monday

[Jesse]

Really looking like a pretty dull coolish pattern the next 5-7 days. Nothing really notable.

At least February will end up solidly below average.

 

Legit!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least February will end up solidly below average.

 

Legit!

At PDX and the gorge. About average or even above most other places in Oregon.

[Perturbed Member]

That low sliding south seems to end up doing a 180 and comes back around heading NE. 18z showed it first I believe. 

 

Barely misses us.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017022100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_25.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017022100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_26.png

[Jesse]

At PDX and the gorge. About average or even above most other places in Oregon.

Wow.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow.

 

IMG_9290.PNG

Didn't believe me did you!!!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z GEM is pretty wacky, the Friday low takes the familiar southward track but then rolls around bombs out and head right back up into WA. It actually ends up with a pretty promising looking gradient in spite of this.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017022100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

[epiceast]

Above average pattern for NW, but melting snow cover in the Basin is clearly responsible for a lot of negative departures.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Wow.

 

IMG_9290.PNG

 

Too bad it doesn't include the small pocket of red that would be showing up over Victoria  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

GEM wants a MossMan special:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017022100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

[HighlandExperience]

GEM wants a MossMan special:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017022100/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

I bet mossman gets dumped on.

[Jesse]

Above average pattern for NW, but melting snow cover in the Basin is clearly responsible for a lot of negative departures.

 

The Puget Sound Basin?

 

I think the cool pattern has just favored northern areas. Kind of like January's pattern but just shifted north several hundred miles. Unless you believe the cold in January was entirely snow cover driven too.

[Karl Bonner]

Wow.

 

IMG_9290.PNG

 

Maybe the flowers in The Dalles will bloom 6 weeks later than Eugene this year???

[Bryant]

I bet mossman gets dumped on.

He's ready for sun and warmth

[Jesse]

I bet mossman gets dumped on.

 

What a shame. He just got out the riding lawnmower too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes the 00z sucks!

[Bryant]

Yikes the 00z sucks!

You seem surprised

[Front Ranger]

You seem surprised

 

The MJO lost its mojo.

[epiceast]

The Puget Sound Basin?

 

I think the cool pattern has just favored northern areas. Kind of like January's pattern but just shifted north several hundred miles. Unless you believe the cold in January was entirely snow cover driven too.

Outside of the Columbia basin and a small spot in NW montana everything is at a small negative anomaly. So yeah snow cover in the basin in February played a role. Climatologically speaking, there shouldn't be consistent snowcover south of Waterville plateau in February(sun angles!!!!). 

[epiceast]

Yikes the 00z sucks!

Good snowstorm for Missoula!(144 hours away)

[Bryant]

The MJO lost its mojo.

Lol, not what I was going for

[BLI snowman]

Bye winter.

[Deweydog]

Bye winter.

You just made the list, bud.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still some pretty good ensemble MEMBERS!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12z ECMWF isn't terrible. I like that it has Friday's low stronger and a bit closer to the coast than the GFS does, that could work out well for a few places (probably much of the East Vancouver Island, but still a bit far to benefit Victoria and the mainland). The phasing of the polar jet and the cutoff low will be interesting to watch. I still see some potential for the Sunday-Monday timeframe. It's crazy how much of a repeating theme these cutoff lows rolling into a trough have been this winter.

[Jesse]

You just made the list, bud.

 

Are you throwing a goodbye party for winter? Am I invited?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z NAVGEM also runs north with the low on Sunday/Monday. It's still a long shot but with outflow and a cool airmass already well established it makes for some interesting possibilities.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2017022100/navgem_mslp_pcpn_nwus_27.png

[Dave]

I think the Eugene Chamber of Commerce must have installed a special rain gauge.  There's no way this is accurate.  It has poured here all month.  Including right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the Eugene Chamber of Commerce must have installed a special rain gauge.  There's no way this is accurate.  It has poured here all month.  Including right now.

 

SLE is up to about 12.50" now. They got that record in their sights!

 

Pretty amazing PDX and SLE possibly break 1996 with no major flooding. 

 

And something is up with the EUG gauge, that has been pointed out by Justin I believe. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 06z GFS was very good. Best ensemble suite yet. 

[Deweydog]

Are you throwing a goodbye party for winter? Am I invited?

Of course I am. It was a good winter and it deserves recognition.

 

2-28, 7pm to 12am at the 99th street Applebees. Come dressed as your favorite piece of snow removal equipmemt.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GEM alert

[epiceast]

GEM alert

post a map

[Jesse]

Still some pretty good ensemble MEMBERS!

'Member March 2012?

 

I 'member.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017022112/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_25.png

[jakeinthevalley]

Another 1.3" last 24hrs.  Up to 13.5".  Do I hear 14"?

[stuffradio]

post a map

You can go here http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/and click Global, then CMC.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some wet snow mixing in

 

Mostly snow now. 36 degrees.