February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Blizzard777]

Dusting here in Federal way with very light wet snow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like there could be about 48 straight hours of light snow up here starting Sunday morning. 

[ShawniganLake]

No snow here. Just can't catch a break.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

They are fun to look at

 

Yep, don't get me wrong, they're still fun to look at and they can be useful for gauging whether snow is even possible, just so long as you don't get too attached to the specifics which are almost always wrong more than 24 hours out.

[MossMan]

No snow here. Just can't catch a break.

I'm still hoping to break double digit snowfall totals for the winter (hopefully this weekend) which I still feel is pathetic compared to most other areas. Even the swamp has done better than I have. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Sunday still looks like a go as per the 12z GFS. The other nice thing about Sunday is timing, with the system coming in late night/early morning and precipitation falling at a cooler time of the day.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm still hoping to break double digit snowfall totals for the winter (hopefully this weekend) which I still feel is pathetic compared to most other areas. Even the swamp has done better than I have. 

 

I think these systems rolling in from the NW are usually better for your area as long as they don't veer too far offshore.

[Jesse]

Would be nice to see the GFS start tending toward that cooler group of ensemble members in the mid-long range at some point.

[ShawniganLake]

I'm still hoping to break double digit snowfall totals for the winter (hopefully this weekend) which I still feel is pathetic compared to most other areas. Even the swamp has done better than I have.

There are definitely still a few areas that have missed out. I believe someone from mason county said they are at 4" for the season. That seems really low.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Would be nice to see the GFS start tending toward that cooler group of ensemble members in the mid-long range at some point.

 

Unfortunately the operational has been pretty stubborn in being on the warm side of the ensemble members.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12z GEM isn't as good, the cutoff low to the south is stronger and starts absorbing the NW tracking low just as it's making it into our region. Hopefully that thing will die off like the GFS is showing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GEM isn't as good, the cutoff low to the south is stronger and starts absorbing the NW tracking low just as it's making it into our region. Hopefully that thing will die off like the GFS is showing.

 

Yeah not nearly as good. Still gives me a decent shot of snow Monday with the secondary low, but that would be to warm for snow below 1000'. 

[HighlandExperience]

[MossMan]

Snowing in the swamp. UP to about an inch In Bonney Lake...

 

IMG_0338.jpeg

What does this bring you up to for winter totals now?

[Phil]

South Texas is already experiencing 100F+ temperatures.

 

This summer is gonna suuuuuck.

[Tenochtitlan]

South Texas is already experiencing 100F+ temperatures.

 

This summer is gonna suuuuuck.

I hope it's only sorta bad. I also hope you get some snow sometime.

[Jesse]

South Texas is already experiencing 100F+ temperatures.

 

This summer is gonna suuuuuck.

Ülerglob ingworm.

[Phil]

I hope it's only sorta bad. I also hope you get some snow sometime.

You guys should be fine, unless you like big heat. Everyone east of the Rockies is completely and utterly screwed, though. I guess it's payback for the cool summers of 2013/14/15.

 

As for snow..lol yeah, maybe in April when I don't want it.

[Phil]

Ülerglob ingworm.

F**king PDO.

[Tenochtitlan]

You guys should be fine, unless you like big heat. Everyone east of the Rockies is completely and utterly screwed, though. I guess it's payback for the cool summers of 2013/14/15.

 

As for snow..lol yeah, maybe in April when I don't want it.

Have you had less snow in a winter to this point before? I know there have been dud winters on the East Coast before but this seems pretty unusual given your elevation.

[BLI snowman]

Tomorrow morning still looks decent for SW WA. Maybe a wet 1-2" for elevated areas (200'+) from the river on north.

[Phil]

Have you had less snow in a winter to this point before? I know there have been dud winters on the East Coast before but this seems pretty unusual given your elevation.

My elevation is 200ft, so that's a non-factor. Still, this has indeed been one of our warmest, least-snowy winters on record, at least to this point. What makes it worse is that everyone around us had been hit at least once. Even NC has been hit. We've had plenty of oppprtunities, but none of the waves have timed properly, and timing is *everything* for us. The warmth is fine if we can properly time a wave packet..we just haven't managed to do it yet.

 

I'm right in the middle of this snow-hole. Though this map seems to be under-reporting snowfall overall, it still paints the picture to a near perfect degree..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C21A3DE9-F6D4-4962-857D-E6ACA9076D40_zpsimsanehr.png

[ShawniganLake]

GFS operational continues to be a warm outlier.

[Phil]

Despite the US warmth, snowcover across the Northern Hemisphere has been much above normal (once again) this autumn winter.

 

Since 1967 (record period of 50yrs)

 

October: 3rd highest

November: 5th highest

December: 8th highest

January: 5th highest

February: TBD

[luvssnow_spokane]

What does this bring you up to for winter totals now?

Around 14" to 15" which is wonderful and the most since 2008. Overall, 2008 from a total snow and longevity aspect, totally blows away this year at my location. The snow here has been great but really transitionary to a quick melt scenario. 2008 was snow that lasted for weeks with very to little to no melting which I love.  

 

That being said... "I am super happy with this year !" If it does not snow the rest of the season I am totally fine with that. This is one reason I have not been posting much nor really watching models as I am more than satisfied with what I have gotten this season! It's been great.

[Bryant]

Managed a quick inch under a very small localized band of moisture.

[HighlandExperience]

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm totally losing it here.

 

You usually refer to yourself as living in the swamp.

True... I often refer to here as the "Swamp Highlands" ... I still consider this the swamp when compared to many other areas in the Puget Sound due to the outcome and due to the fact the valley and us have about the same results. We are also only a few miles apart.  My altitude has often not made a crapload a difference due to notorious down slopping and rain shadow effects, especially when compared to many other location in the area. I have to admit SnowWiz's location has also not done well in recent years which is so unusual for out there historically speaking. I lived there for almost 15 years and it never used to be that way.

 

I can see your confusion on my post this morning, but I was actually referring to two locations. Sorry for the confusion as it was a quick post from my phone. 

[Bryant]

[Jbolin]

Elevation is everything in this air mass

 

Just now here in West Seattle

[MossMan]

Managed a quick inch under a very small localized band of moisture.

I was hopeful early this morning when I was sitting at 31 degrees with thick clouds that had moved in, but as usual the pocket of precip stayed away from my house and went over Camano and Whidbey instead. Congrats on your inch!

[North_County]

Lol, I can always find a way to complain unless I lived in Sumas or Lynden, then it would be almost impossible.

I've heard lots of complaining in Lynden and Sumas this winter......

[HighlandExperience]

 

Average temp in Seattle From Dec 1 to Feb 22, 39.0°. Seattle on track for coldest Dec thru Feb since 1985 and 4th coldest in 50 yrs. #wawx— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 23, 2017

Not much to show for it.

[Bryant]

I've heard lots of complaining in Lynden and Sumas this winter......

From people that don't appreciate the snow

[Jesse]

Not much to show for it.

Besides an awesome winter with multiple snow opportunities for just about everywhere in the lowlands from Medford to Vancouver, BC.

 

Also a rare opportunity to enjoy winter sports we often do not have a chance to here. Like ice skating on frozen lakes.

[HighlandExperience]

Besides an awesome winter with multiple snow opportunities for just about everywhere in the lowlands from Medford to Vancouver, BC.

 

Also a rare opportunity to enjoy winter sports we often do not have a chance to here. Like ice skating on frozen lakes.

Just saying. Considering how cold it has been, I would have expected 20+ inches of snow throughout the i-5 corridor for sustained long periods by Pnw standards.

 

Not trying to be greedy.

[Jesse]

Just saying. Considering how cold it has been, I would have expected 20+ inches of snow throughout the i-5 corridor for sustained long periods by Pnw standards.

 

Not trying to be greedy.

Seems like a case of glass half empty versus glass half full.

[HighlandExperience]

Seems like a case of glass half empty versus glass half full.

 

I suppose =). 

[Front Ranger]

[snow maniac]

Heavy grauple snow here now for an hour now everything covered.