February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SCORE!

 

Wasn't living here yet. But I did move up in time to catch September 2011!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Drunk uncle 18z in full force...

[Jesse]

The 12Z EURO ensembles looked much better than the operational from day 6 onward, for whatever that is worth.

 

The operational Euro has really struggled in that range this winter. Lots of wild swings.

[Timmy]

Drunk uncle 18z in full force...

Wow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG! Incoming!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021918/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_44.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This would be somewhat historic...

 

[ShawniganLake]

This would be somewhat historic...

 

Looks like an Oregon special.

[Guest Dome Buster]

As is always the case in N/NW flow, get the cold air in place and pray for moisture.  Looks like a couple of lows may get emebedded in the flow in the upcoming week, mainly late week.  This time of year I would say 500' at the minimum for sticking snow.  Just too much onshore flow unfortunately.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I will add.  It does like the best setup so far this winter for some PSCZ action.  

[HighlandExperience]

To his point - I don't think any areas within 10-15 min of downtown Seattle received widespread 15-18" of snowfall that stuck around for a week. East Portland was slammed with over a foot as was downtown. People also forget that most of the West Hills are are also within Portland City limits. 

 

Speaking on a metro standpoint, there really is no comparison between the January 11th system for the PDX area and the Feb event in SEA.

 

West Seattle did pretty well. Most of West Seattle got between 7-10 inches of snow. I'd say most places 20 mins outside of downtown Seattle got 7+ inches with the last storm. Most of the eastside and south king county had close to 12 inches. 

 

I agree with you though that the last storm was not as good compared to the Portland area. The cold temps down there after the blast was really nice...

 

Thankfully late Feb/early March generally does better up here. Maybe we can make up for the disappointments we had this winter. 

[Guest Dome Buster]

West Seattle did pretty well. Most of West Seattle got between 7-10 inches of snow. I'd say most places 20 mins outside of downtown Seattle got 7+ inches with the last storm. Most of the eastside and south king county had close to 12 inches. 

 

I agree with you though that the last storm was not as good compared to the Portland area. The cold temps down there after the blast was really nice...

 

Thankfully late Feb/early March generally does better up here. Maybe we can make up for the disappointments we had this winter. 

 

 

 

Seattle and points north will do much better the rest of the way IMO.

[Bryant]

Seattle and points north will do much better the rest of the way IMO.

Much better with cold rain you mean?

[snow_wizard]

Notable improvement on the 18z ensembles for the part of the cold snap in the believable range. The mean has 850s -7 or lower for about 4 days straight. Very solid for this late in the season.

[Trainwreck]

Seattle and points north will do much better the rest of the way IMO.

George has spoken.

[Jbolin]

West Seattle did pretty well. Most of West Seattle got between 7-10 inches of snow. I'd say most places 20 mins outside of downtown Seattle got 7+ inches with the last storm. Most of the eastside and south king county had close to 12 inches. 

 

I agree with you though that the last storm was not as good compared to the Portland area. The cold temps down there after the blast was really nice...

 

Thankfully late Feb/early March generally does better up here. Maybe we can make up for the disappointments we had this winter. 

As evidenced by my pic of 9.25" of snow with the event earlier this month. It was a drastic difference between my location and 2 miles west of me. I had the aforementioned amount and places 200 feet lower and 2 miles away barely had an inch. 

[Perturbed Member]

GFS

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017021918/132/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

GEM

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2017021912/138/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

The euro is less generous to most of the low lands. 1-2 inches in PDX from the Friday setup.

 

Euro ensemble mean looks to be between .5 to 1 inch for both SEA and PDX for late this week.

 

I'm sure the actual outcome of this will be quite different than what the models are showing now anyway.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So far doesn't look like the 00z will be as exciting

[Canadian guy]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

 

Looks chilly!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kold

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It's a pretty nice looking pattern at day 6, most of the major features you'd want to see are there. With model flip flopping that took place in the run up to the last event I wouldn't count this out just yet.

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017022000/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Potential Heavy Snow on the Arctic Tundra

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF unquestionably shows a snow pattern for Seattle next weekend. Yee haw!

[HighlandExperience]

The ECMWF unquestionably shows a snow pattern for Seattle next weekend. Yee haw!

Wow could get snowy around Wa and BC

[van city]

Wow could get snowy around Wa and BC

Portland???

[Perturbed Member]

00z Euro gives PDX 2-4 inches. 

 

I really don't think this is a pattern that PDX does well with though. Light onshore flow with showery precip and just barely too warm temps in the lowest 500ft of the atmosphere. We've seen this setup plenty of times before and usually it doesn't deliver here unless you're on the hills. There are of course exceptions.

 

I think areas further north might do better than what the models currently show though. This type of setup usually favors the northern regions more IMO.

[wx_statman]

My statement in regards to proxy time-resolution? Isotope ratios in the ice cores ate highest-resolution proxy currently available.

 

I personally view the "big picture" and "small picture" as part of the same picture. I don't think one can understand the small picture without first understanding the big picture, similar to how a PNW Arctic blast in a super niño may not reflect the "normal" underlying background state in said regime.

 

My post should have read "2nd to last paragraph," not "2nd paragraph." My bad. I had the word bolded as well. 

[wx_statman]

My statement in regards to proxy time-resolution? Isotope ratios in the ice cores ate highest-resolution proxy currently available.

 

I personally view the "big picture" and "small picture" as part of the same picture. I don't think one can understand the small picture without first understanding the big picture, similar to how a PNW Arctic blast in a super niño may not reflect the "normal" underlying background state in said regime.

 

That's not what we're talking about. 

[BLI snowman]

00z Euro gives PDX 2-4 inches. 

 

I really don't think this is a pattern that PDX does well with though. Light onshore flow with showery precip and just barely too warm temps in the lowest 500ft of the atmosphere. We've seen this setup plenty of times before and usually it doesn't deliver here unless you're on the hills. There are of course exceptions.

 

I think areas further north might do better than what the models currently show though. This type of setup usually favors the northern regions more IMO.

 

Just depends, a number of runs have hinted at steady offshore flow on Friday morning with that low dropping down the coast. 

[Phil]

That's not what we're talking about.

How is it not?

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF ensemble has become much more bullish on the idea of an early March intrusion of cold continental air. Quite a bit colder on the mean than yesterday's 12z. It's also solidly chilly for most of the next 10 days with a decent snow threat around day 7.

[ShawniganLake]

The ECMWF ensemble has become much more bullish on the idea of an early March intrusion of cold continental air. Quite a bit colder on the mean than yesterday's 12z. It's also solidly chilly for most of the next 10 days with a decent snow threat around day 7.

I agree. The ensemble improved quite a bit.

 

6z GFS is just a thing of beauty. (Likely more so for Northern regions.)

[Jbolin]

Is it just me or is mother nature PMS'ing all over the west coast this year? 

California especially as of late.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS OMG

[TT-SEA]

Is it just me or is mother nature PMS'ing all over the west coast this year? 

 

California especially as of late.

 

Terrible pattern this week for the PNW...  light rain fest of weak systems ejecting out of the large trough offshore.    Many times when CA is getting pounded there is offshore flow in WA and pleasant weather.   Any pattern change would be welcome.    I am very glad that we are out of town this week.   

 

I would need someone to verify... but this pattern seems similar to 1951.    That was the 2nd wettest February ever at SEA and we are about to move into 3rd place this year.   Also, 1951 had early March snow and cold similar to what the models are showing now.  

 

I would pay a nice sum of money for an April 1951 pattern.       

[FroYoBro]

It's wet out there.

[snow_wizard]

The 6z ensemble could be the most impressive run I've ever seen for sustained well below normal temps. Very impressive!

[snow_wizard]

The Weatherbell 6z GFS based snowfall maps are insane! Usually when they get so over the top is when we actually score

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a high wind warning is up for my area.

[ShawniganLake]

The Weatherbell 6z GFS based snowfall maps are insane! Usually when they get so over the top is when we actually score

Shows 20-40" for southern Vancouver island. That would be fun.