February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[jcmcgaffey]

Sad to say this may be the most snow we have had all winter.  It's starting to melt quick now though.  It was a nice surprise for my kids this morning and I didn't expect anything.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with a trace of snow here this morning, looks like a few more snow showers may be on the way. The secondary low is beginning to take shape.

[MossMan]

Moderate snow here at my favorite coffee stand at Island Crossing (Arlington exit)

[epiceast]

No... it passed now. Was not really a c-zone but rather a band of precip moving from SW to NE. WRF showed nothing this morning while the ECMWF showed precip and the correct placement as well.

It was a classic beginning of a c-zone that never got completely organized. Look at the 8 hour loop, and see how the band stalls and pivots around 5 am near Issaquah Alps. If did that over Everett you would be the first person here yelling c-zone.

 

I guess you could say there is both kinds of behavior 

pre 5 am - showers moving in

5-6 am pivot and organization into c-zone

6-8am move northeast

8am(now) new c-zone behavior in a more normal place

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heavy snow falling now...

[bainbridgekid]

1.5" here in the grass and the CZ has slipped just to my North for the time being at least. It's gorgeous out with everything but the main roads caked.

 

The other teachers are all upset we have school. 

 

10.25" on the year now. Double digits!

[MikeInEverett]

A solid 2" here. Looks like the end is near though.

[bainbridgekid]

The WRF shows the CZ reorgnaizing along the King/Snohomish county line this afternoon as well.

[epiceast]

A solid 2" here. Looks like the end is near though.

You might be in the second "score zone" new returns over the sound indicate that it might stall as a cz again that location.

[HighlandExperience]

The WRF shows the CZ reorgnaizing along the King/Snohomish county line this afternoon as well.

Hope it forms a bit further south

[Geos]

3.0" here. Snow stopped, but has started back up. Roads around here are in terrible shape with a lot of stalled cars and accidents.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well judging by the GFS we don't have to worry about our snow pack melting early this year...

[Geos]

The WRF shows the CZ reorgnaizing along the King/Snohomish county line this afternoon as well.

 

Thanks for posting this info everyone.

 

Trying to figure out if going into work any length of time is a good idea at this point. (Work in Bothell)

[HighlandExperience]

Thanks for posting this info everyone.

 

Trying to figure out if going into work any length of time is a good idea at this point. (Work in Bothell)

 

 

Looks like Kirkland and Redmond were really in the sweet spot with this. A spotter reported 4 inches in redmond ridge. 

 

#nosnowforportland

[MossMan]

Moderate snow here at work that just started, nothing on the ground. Wish I was at home, was up to 1.5" of new snow when I left. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.5" of new snow this morning. 

[Jesse]

Looks like Kirkland and Redmond were really in the sweet spot with this. A spotter reported 4 inches in redmond ridge.

 

#nosnowforportland

Don't quite get this mentality. Were we posting #nosnowforseattle while getting our event down here? Or hoping you guys could join in on the fun?

[Jesse]

I haven't seen sticking snow in almost seven weeks. This winter blows!

[epiceast]

No Snow in seatac either. But probably at least half of Seattle metro population got at least a dusting this morning.

[seattleweatherguy]

Got at least an inch or two haven't actually measured

[seattleweatherguy]

More like an inch

[HighlandExperience]

[Geos]

Snowing hard again in Bothell

[HighlandExperience]

No Snow in seatac either. But probably at least half of Seattle metro population got at least a dusting this morning.

If the HRRR is correct SeaTac should pic up 1-2 inches of snow this evening. I doubt it's accuracy though.

[Jesse]

[HighlandExperience]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Light/moderate snow just started up here, looks like it's already starting to stick with most surfaces still cold/dry.

[ShawniganLake]

Yesterday was my largest single day snowfall total since March 2012.

How much?

[ShawniganLake]

Light/moderate snow just started up here, looks like it's already starting to stick with most surfaces still cold/dry.

Picked up an inch here in the last hour.

[Guest Sounder]

Maybe #nosnowforaltrightracists would be more apropo. Then again Andrew seems to be scoring this morning.

There were some VERY slushy rainbow crosswalks on Capitol Hill this morning

[jakeinthevalley]

Snowing in McMinville

[TT-SEA]

It was a classic beginning of a c-zone that never got completely organized. Look at the 8 hour loop, and see how the band stalls and pivots around 5 am near Issaquah Alps. If did that over Everett you would be the first person here yelling c-zone.

 

I guess you could say there is both kinds of behavior 

pre 5 am - showers moving in

5-6 am pivot and organization into c-zone

6-8am move northeast

8am(now) new c-zone behavior in a more normal place

 

Maybe just semantics here.   I think of a traditional c-zone occurring with strong westerly flow.   This morning there is a ULL approaching from the NW and the bands of precip are associated with the arc around that low.   Watch the regional loop.   

 

Maybe its a combination of both.   

 

But the activity later this evening and overnight looks like classic c-zone action in the flow behind the departing low.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF total snow from now through tomorrow morning at 10 a.m.

 

 

 

The precip map shows a classic z-zone signature this evening and into the night right over the I-90 corridor and then slipping south a little to almost the Pierce County line.

 

I suspect that there could be some significant lowland snow totals by tomorrow morning... even more than the ECMWF is showing.   

 

My area is likely going to get pounded in this set-up.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF total snow from now through tomorrow morning at 10 a.m.

 

The precip map shows a classic z-zone signature this evening and into the night right over the I-90 corridor and then slipping south a little to almost the Pierce County line.

 

I suspect that there could be some significant snow totals by tomorrow morning... even more than the ECMWF is showing.

 

My area is likely going to get pounded in this set-up.

Daffodil disaster in the making!

[TT-SEA]

Daffodil disaster in the making!

 

You would think so... but they seem to be fine being buried in snow.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe #nosnowforaltrightracists would be more apropo. Then again Andrew seems to be scoring this morning.

 

Typical, let's call people we don't agree with names. But yes I am liking my 8" of snow over the past two days. 

 

Wonde how they feel about milo now?

 

Milo!

[BLI snowman]

Stall that baroclinic zone out next Saturday and we could be talking about some sloppy goodness.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Stall that baroclinic zone out next Saturday and we could be talking about some sloppy goodness.

 

It has a March 13/March 21, 2012 look to it...All depends on the track... 

[BLI snowman]

It has a March 13/March 21, 2012 look to it...All depends on the track... 

 

It will probably stall 10 miles to my southeast this time. My payback for January 10 continues.

[epiceast]

Maybe just semantics here.   I think of a traditional c-zone occurring with strong westerly flow.   This morning there is a ULL approaching from the NW and the bands of precip are associated with the arc around that low.   Watch the regional loop.   

 

Maybe its a combination of both.   

 

But the activity later this evening and overnight looks like classic c-zone action in the flow behind the departing low.

Well usually you're first to call something out a c-zone when it's not when it's around everett, or call ignore the existence of the rare vancouver island convergence zone/twin convergence zone. But yeah I think this morning's band behavior was a battle between low level forcing of a c-zone and upper level setup that wasn't favorable to it. In the end the upper level dynamics won and nobody scored half a foot.