February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Blizzard777]

looking forward to snow reports! I'm down at Lincoln city so not even a chance for me. I will enjoy the Ocean and Oscar Oscar Awards down here

[Geos]

WRF ARW from earlier favoring northern King and southern Snohomish County - and the Issaquah Alps.

 

 

3km kinda the same

[ShawniganLake]

For the last 4yrs straight I have had to start mowing in February...not this year!

Not even a sign of green on my front lawn. Totally dormant. Looks weird for February in the PNW

[seattleweatherguy]

Heard in queen Anne it's snowing

[Deweydog]

Heard in queen Anne it's snowing

Gross.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 37 here and it's only very light rain so far.  Looking very promising.  The 4km WRF shows 1000 foot temps dropping below freezing by 1 am in this area.  It seems to have a good handle on it up to this point.

[snow_wizard]

I got a full 7" here after the Super Bowl.

 

Hopefully you snow starved folks get a few inches.

 

I'll be here all night and tomorrow pulling for you.

 

Snow Wiz....that means you!  I got you big guy!  

 

May the mother load of all convergence convene over your house in Covington.

 

We got 7 inches also.  I'm not as desperate this time.  I really like our chances to score over the next couple of days.  A really good looking chance around Friday also.  In fact recent runs show another cold opportunity late in week two.

[snow_wizard]

The temp just dropped another 0.4F.  It has dropped almost 2 degrees in the last half hour.

[HighlandExperience]

Higher resolution WRF still looks good for King County. Solid 2-4 inches

[snow_wizard]

Higher resolution WRF still looks good for King County. Solid 2-4 inches

 

Actually one of the better locations.

[HighlandExperience]

Actually one of the better locations.

I don't trust the WRF. But that is encouraging. It did decent with the last event. What does Euro show?

[Bryant]

About an inch thus far, 32°

[Jbolin]

I don't trust the WRF. But that is encouraging. It did decent with the last event. What does Euro show?

Less and HRRR is way unimpressive.

[Jbolin]

Weak 

[HighlandExperience]

Less and HRRR is way unimpressive.

how much less on Euro?

 

Hrrr has had a bad track record recently.

[MossMan]

Just rain now and still 34.2 degrees.

[FroYoBro]

About an inch thus far, 32°

This winter sucks!

[seattleweatherguy]

Euro to me by look shows a trace to an inch

[Bryant]

This winter sucks!

Certainly could have been better

[HighlandExperience]

[MossMan]

Certainly could have been better

Could have been amazing. Oh well. Pouring rain here after promising snowfall earlier in the evening.

[snow_wizard]

Temp down another 0.5 and rain is now passing the splat test.

[snow_wizard]

Less and HRRR is way unimpressive.

 

The HRRR was horrible with the early month event.

[snow_wizard]

About an inch thus far, 32°

 

Good deal!

[Jbolin]

The HRRR was horrible with the early month event.

Sorry, didn't mean to pull a "Tim" and post a map showing less snow

[HighlandExperience]

The HRRR was horrible with the early month event.

I'm curious what Euro shows for eastern Puget Sound. Mainly east of 167.

[bainbridgekid]

Could have been amazing. Oh well. Pouring rain here after promising snowfall earlier in the evening.

What's your elevation again?

[ShawniganLake]

About an inch thus far, 32°

It's not snowing here and it's raining in Abbotsford. You're winning this round so far. Models have really dropped the amount of precip forecast up here for early tomorrow morning. The 4-6" is now looking more like probably 1-2" here.

[MossMan]

What's your elevation again?

About 300ft.

[snow_wizard]

I'm curious what Euro shows for eastern Puget Sound. Mainly east of 167.

 

2 to 3 inches.

 

Also snow chances Monday morning and Monday evening.

[Bryant]

It's not snowing here and it's raining in Abbotsford. You're winning this round so far. Models have really dropped the amount of precip forecast up here for early tomorrow morning. The 4-6" is now looking more like probably 1-2" here.

Did a DOT cam tour, quite discouraging when you can't find any other snow besides the cam near your house. I know it's snowing on higher hills in Bellingham, was just surprised to see how limited the snowfall is currently

[snow_wizard]

Snow is really mixing in now and the temp continues a pretty good drop.  The WRF looks correct on showing 1000 foot temps plenty cold for near surface snow levels by 1 am.

[snow_wizard]

Did a DOT cam tour, quite discouraging when you can't find any other snow besides the cam near your house. I know it's snowing on higher hills in Bellingham, was just surprised to see how limited the snowfall is currently

 

Things always even out.  You and I got screwed for much of the winter, but now we are doing better.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS is pretty amazing for snow chances.  

 

1.  The next couple of days.

2.  Around Friday.

3.  Around the end of week 2.

 

The thing later in the week is very interesting.  A huge pool of unusually cold mP air sweeps in for a good shot at onshore flow snowfall.  Could be good for a number of areas.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 35 now.  Impressive temp drop!

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm still at 39

[HighlandExperience]

Temp dropped another degree here. Looks like a heavy band of showers moving in from the SW. Should help drop temps.

 

Currently 36.

[snow_wizard]

Temp dropped another degree here. Looks like a heavy band of showers moving in from the SW. Should help drop temps.

 

Currently 36.

 

 

I've been waiting forever for these situations where it's cold enough for snow with WSW or even SW flow.  The East Puget Sound Lowlands do great in those cases.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still at 39

 

The models seem to like the prospects for your area very late tonight or early morning.  Has to do with the circulation around the low.

[Bryant]

Things always even out. You and I got screwed for much of the winter, but now we are doing better.

It's true. Hope the snow starts really flying down that way soon!