February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[VancouverIslandSouth]

What is left of this mornings 2.5"!

 

Dewpoints are really plummeting in the Fraser Valley outflow now, down to 18F at YXX, temperatures aloft are heading to their coldest of the event and 500mb heights will drop below 528dm tomorrow. I wonder if this will be yet another event where the secondary low steals the show; for most locations a sloppy trace would beat what happened today. Perhaps we can score a much more marginal version of Feb 6th. The upper levels weren't much colder with that one but the low level outflow was in a whole different league.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up another 3" this evening. Snowiest day of the winter now.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z GFS is looking a bit jucier with the secondary low, looks like morning/afternoon snow up here and morning/evening snow over the South/Central Puget Sound tomorrow.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017022700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_3.png

[HighlandExperience]

The 0z GFS is looking a bit jucier with the secondary low, looks like morning/afternoon snow up here and morning/evening snow over the South/Central Puget Sound tomorrow.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017022700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_3.png

Interestingly this might be a better opportunity than this morning.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Interestingly this might be a better opportunity than this morning.

 

Much better in some places that failed to see any precipitation intensity with the last one; it ended up warmer and drier in many spots. This one has a better temperature profile going for it, and having the low take shape right over us opens up the prospect of some convective snow showers.

[snow_wizard]

Looking really promising for some lowland snow...especially tomorrow afternoon and night. Certainly possible some spots could score a little tonight also.

[Heavy Snow]

Wtf

Hillary should be President

 

Hahahahahajahahaha. Good Lord.

And let me guess Bill and Loretta talked about their grandkids on the tarmac in Las Vegas? You are the definition of a Libtard.

Do us all a favor and move to Canada. I'll buy the bus ticket.

Libtard lol

Hot take!

Luke 6:27-31 "But to you who are listening I say: Love your enemies, do good to those who hate you, bless those who curse you, pray for those who mistreat you. If someone slaps you on one cheek, turn to them the other also. If someone takes your coat, do not withhold your shirt from them. Give to everyone who asks you, and if anyone takes what belongs to you, do not demand it back. Do to others as you would have them do to you."

 

Matthew 5:38-42 "You have heard that it was said, ‘Eye for eye, and tooth for tooth.’ But I tell you, do not resist an evil person. If anyone slaps you on the right cheek, turn to them the other cheek also. And if anyone wants to sue you and take your shirt, hand over your coat as well. If anyone forces you to go one mile, go with them two miles. Give to the one who asks you, and do not turn away from the one who wants to borrow from you."

 

Matthew 12:36 "But I tell you that everyone will have to give account on the day of judgment for every empty word they have spoken."

[Jesse]

Score!!!!

[van city]

WTF was with the Oscars.

 

La La Land won the Popular vote, Moonlight won Electoral College. LOL

[snow_wizard]

Next weekend still looks good for lowland snow.

 

In other news I have snow mixed with rain going here right now. Almost cold enough to have sticking snow if it continues.

[luvssnow_spokane]

WTF was with the Oscars.

 

La La Land won the Popular vote, Moonlight won Electoral College. LOL

All I can say is there would be rioting and looting in the streets and screams of racism if the opposite had happened and "Moonlight" had gotten called first and "LaLa Land" was the actual winner... Guaranteed... the ACLU and the news networks would of loved that. Thank goodness it did not happen. The last thing we need is more protests and rioting.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Next weekend still looks good for lowland snow.

 

In other news I have snow mixed with rain going here right now. Almost cold enough to have sticking snow if it continues.

 

Dewpoints have continued to plummet in places in the path of the Fraser outflow and north winds are prevalent; 25F dewpoint here currently, 16F at YXX. Having this cool dry low level air in place ahead of the developing low will come in handy when the precipitation starts to fall, there wasn't anything like this ahead of the system last night.

[HighlandExperience]

Dewpoints have continued to plummet in places in the path of the Fraser outflow and north winds are prevalent; 25F dewpoint here currently, 16F at YXX. Having this cool dry low level air in place ahead of the developing low will come in handy when the precipitation starts to fall, there wasn't anything like this ahead of the system last night.

About 2-3 degrees colder tonight compared to last night. To bad we don't have as much moisture.

[snow_wizard]

It appears I will end up with three consecutive months with a monthly average below 40 this winter. Not too shabby. Just to illustrate how bad the early part of this century was...I went from Jan 2001 through Nov 2005 without a single month averaging below 40. Things have really improved since then.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It appears I will end up with three consecutive months with a monthly average below 40 this winter. Not too shabby. Just to illustrate how bad the early part of this century was...I went from Jan 2001 through Nov 2005 without a single month averaging below 40. Things have really improved since then.

 

This will be the 5th coldest DJF on record at PDX. Pretty impressive IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ummmm

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017022706/gfs_asnow24_nwus_24.png

[Geos]

Snowing heavily here right now.

 

0.8" already.

[Geos]

Wow, this is crazy. Surpassing an inch now. 31.7° outside - everything is plastered in white.

[epiceast]

I'm seeing North Seattle & ESPL got a perfect convergence zone during a perfect time today.

[FroYoBro]

Wow, this is crazy. Surpassing an inch now. 31.7° outside - everything is plastered in white.

Awesome. A little warmer down here. Getting a rain/snow mix in a passing shower right now. 

[Geos]

2" already.

[epiceast]

Snowing heavily here right now.

 

0.8" already.

 

 

2" already.

3" an hour!!!

[Geos]

 

 

3" an hour!!!

 

 

Yeah it's dumping out there. Of course I'm not sure what time it started exactly. I woke up to it at 6:15.

 

[MossMan]

Snowing. Ground already getting recovered. 30 degrees.

[MossMan]

Wow it's near a white out now! Already nearing an inch!!

[Geos]

Wow it's near a white out now! Already nearing an inch!!

 

Here too

 

2.4" now

[epiceast]

I wonder if Duvall will see 6" of this. They are probably in the best spot to score it if you look at the radar.

[HighlandExperience]

Seattle cam

[MikeInEverett]

This came at a bad time for schools here. Roads are a mess and there's already been a minor accident. Parking lot at my school is only half full so some kids just decided not to try.

[MossMan]

Just stopped up here, lovely surprise though!!

[MossMan]

This came at a bad time for schools here. Roads are a mess and there's already been a minor accident. Parking lot at my school is only half full so some kids just decided not to try.

I was just thinking the same thing, roads are completely snow covered here that happened 15min ago while the busses are out.

[Jesse]

I was just thinking the same thing, roads are completely snow covered here that happened 15min ago while the busses are out.

Wimps! Back in my day when it would snow (several feet every year) they would just replace the wheels of the bus with toboggans and the kids would push it to school, uphill!

[TT-SEA]

This event was a complete victory for the ECMWF which has been showing a second system for today since late last week while the other models were completely lost.

 

Even last night the HRRR and WRF did not show anything for this morning but the ECMWF sure did... it nailed the location of this band of snow.   Even I was doubting it.   But never bet against the ECMWF precip maps.  

[TT-SEA]

Here is an example of the complete ECMWF domination with surface details...

 

The 00Z WRF for this morning:

 

 

 

 

And the 00Z ECMWF:

 

 

 

 

Finally... here is the current radar.

 

[TT-SEA]

Back to a decidedly winter scene here...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up a quick quarter inch the past half hour. 5 out of the last 7 days now with measurable snowfall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday was my largest single day snowfall total since March 2012. 

[MossMan]

Snowing again up here, roads are covered in snow and ice.

[epiceast]

Here is an example of the complete ECMWF domination with surface details...

 

The 00Z WRF for this morning:

 

 

 

 

And the 00Z ECMWF:

 

 

 

 

Finally... here is the current radar.

 

Tim,

 

That's a 6 hour map. We're getting those amounts every hour with the hero convergence zone.

[TT-SEA]

Tim,

 

That's a 6 hour map. We're getting those amounts every hour with the hero convergence zone.

No... it passed now. Was not really a c-zone but rather a band of precip moving from SW to NE. WRF showed nothing this morning while the ECMWF showed precip and the correct placement as well.