Money Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Tons of southern solutions on GEFS: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020300/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020300/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Several 970's and some 960's: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020300/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 6z GFS came in farther SE and hammers the LSE and GB area with 12+ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 From NOAA: Turning more active next week, as a series of lower amplitude wavesof central pacific origin lead in the eventual ejection of an arcticsystem by mid week. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I see the Euro went south. European models vs. GFS but have noticed the GFS has been trending south as well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Several 970's and some 960's: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020300/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.pngI still think south options are on the table. Even if we can't get it as far south as 01.12z Euro, am hoping for at least some backside storm conditions via LES. With wind headlines, should be a very colorful CONUS map. Would love to see all 5 GL's lit up with storm warnings. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Will be interesting what happens to the strength of the storm. So far this season from about this timefame until storm time trends have been to weaken systems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Will be interesting what happens to the strength of the storm. So far this season from about this timefame until storm time trends have been to weaken systems.To counter that, ensemble run are notoriously de-amped compared to the Op's, plus the Op's play catch-up wrt strength. So far, the ensembles are strong so I don't think this will go so lame. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Will be interesting what happens to the strength of the storm. So far this season from about this timefame until storm time trends have been to weaken systems.Without a doubt. IIRC the Christmas Day rain storm/Dakotas special was one of the only ones that didn't come in much weaker than the models depicted. However, even if this storm does come in weaker, it should still produce. It will essentially have the energy from 3 different storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 HP placement on the 06z GFS is trending better and sliding east a little slower. It has that "banana" look earlier on...need a little more HP... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020306/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_17.png 06z GFS snowfall...3" line creeped south towards the IL/WI border... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 06z GEFS also trended with more HP... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020306/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_18.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020306/gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_us_20.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017020306/gfs-ens_T2m_us_19.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Some posters on here will get crushed from snow!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Some posters on here will get crushed from snow!!Some will get crushed with disappointment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I've been noticing subtle, but important small changes each run on the GFS. Firstly, the small piece of energy swinging off of a spinning Aleutian system that tracks towards CA has been slowing every so slightly each run. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020306/gfs_z500_vort_namer_8.png The little ball of energy (552 thickness) in the E PAC eventually merges with the closed low off the OR/WA coast. This closed low has also been trending farther south as well as the northern branch has been pressing every so slightly. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017020306/gfs_z500_vort_namer_14.png The slower that PAC wave comes on shore, the better chance of the northern branch to press south which can shift the storm track south. That's what I'm going to pay attention to going forward. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 12z GFS back north again it looks like... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 988 over Chicago at hour 102 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 988 over Chicago at hour 102Yup, looks like I will be tracking my barometer instead of measuring how many inches of snow will be falling... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Rain up north to Green Bay and most of lower MI. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Looks like the only chance of seeing any snow around here is when this storm really wraps up and the defo band moves through IA/IL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Later phase keeping it slightly warmer? Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 D**n, 982mb near DTW... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Later phase keeping it slightly warmer?Looks like it, but that can easily change as this PAC wave gets better sampling. Past experience tracking these type of rapidly intensifying storms is that they can wobble and it would mean a world of difference up by you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 12z GFS...might break that streak Tony! LOL... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 12z Euro looks very similar to the GFS.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017020312/ecmwf_T850_us_5.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I still believe this will go south enough still 4 days left. Lets hope!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I still believe this will go south enough still 4 days left. Lets hope!!I think it's pretty much locked on an upper Midwest/Lakes storm to get they brunt of the snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Euro shows virtually no backside snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snoorani Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Is the GFS the only model showing decent backside snow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Is the GFS the only model showing decent backside snow?http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017020312/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Thermals a definite concern at the start on the Euro and GFS...unless you're in the north woods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 Looks like some cold rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 "Euro went south with the SLP. 996mb over central IN at 120hrs to 979mb over Watertown NY at 144hrs." Was this last night's Euro?? Anyone have that map by chance?? Need one more piece of eye-candy before another 10 mos of warmth. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 I see the Euro went south. European models vs. GFS but have noticed the GFS has been trending south as well."Euro went south with the SLP. 996mb over central IN at 120hrs to 979mb over Watertown NY at 144hrs." Any maps of this?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 12z GFS...might break that streak Tony! LOL...Backside snows generally don't work out so I will say the streak will stay alive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 12z GEFS shows a pretty tight cluster through NW IL to the southern part of LM. A few low to mid 980s in there too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 "00z GFS...insisting north camp...." @ Tom - looked back at the clipper thread. GFS's first adjustment south was inside of 100 hrs but it was low on snow amounts. Then it bounced around on SN amnts until maybe 60 hrs out when it had an accurate portrayal. Between 3 & 2 days out it had caught on. With the Fujiwara scenario and all the waves in play and moving parts, I could envision a late game rally for this storm tbh. 6z GEFS showed those HP's getting into the 1030's. Wouldn't take a ton to make this much more interesting at our latitude. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 3, 2017 Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 GRR AFD LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)Issued at 329 PM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 It seems increasingly likely that significant winter impacts willoccur Tuesday into Wednesday. Although forecast certainty withdetails remains low at this time, current model trends suggestfreezing rain over our central and northern counties Tuesday andthunderstorms not out of the question near I-94. What seems morecertain is snow and blowing snow with falling temperature Wednesday. The 12Z models (ECMWF, GFS, GFS ensemble mean, Parallel GFS) and the00Z ECMWF ensemble have come into better agreement. The storm centercrosses the Chicago area by Tuesday evening then crosses centralLake Huron. It deepens rapidly with the upper level wave goingnegative tilt. The Western Region situational awareness table showsfrom 1985 to 2012 from Jan 28th through Feb 18th, pressure this lowoccurs once about every 30 years. This does not necessarily mean thestorm itself will be that historic because other factors need tocome into play first. The storm is now near 35N and 155W and will merge with a systemcurrently stalled off the coast of the state of Washington bySaturday evening. It then merges out of the Rockies into westernPlains on Monday. By then a 140-150 knot southern stream jet coredigs into the back side of the upper wave as a 160 knot jet departsthe coast of Maine. This creates considerable upper divergence whichallows the upper wave to go negative tilt over Michigan byWednesday. Gulf moisture will surge northward into Michigan Tuesday ahead ofthe storm and precipitable water values surge to over 0.75 inches bymidday Wednesday. This type of moisture happens once in about 5years for this particular time of year (again this refers only toone aspect...the moisture...not the entire storm). The surge of warm moist air Tuesday may lead to a significantfreezing rain event. The CIPs analogs are showing the percent chancefor freezing rain for at least 3 hours is between 40 and 50 percentbetween I-94 and I-96 Tuesday.There is also a 60 to 70 percentchance of at least 4" of snow over our western row of continuesduring the lake effect phase the storm. Beyond all of that we wouldexpect winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph on Wednesday asthe cold air comes back in. This will mean blowing and drifting snowas temperatures fall from near freezing at midnight Tuesday night tothe lower 20s by Wednesday afternoon, making roads increasinglyslippery during the day. The track of the storm is crucial. The farther north it tracks onTuesday, the less the threat of freezing rain and more of a threatfor thunderstorms affecting far southern Michigan. Lake effect snowis nearly certain Wednesday - likely over 4 inches in our westerncounties so that will mean considerable blowing and drifting. The storm departs Thursday but lake effect will likely continuethrough the day ending Thursday evening. Quiet weather is expectedFriday. && Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 "00z GFS...insisting north camp...." @ Tom - looked back at the clipper thread. GFS's first adjustment south was inside of 100 hrs but it was low on snow amounts. Then it bounced around on SN amnts until maybe 60 hrs out when it had an accurate portrayal. Between 3 & 2 days out it had caught on. With the Fujiwara scenario and all the waves in play and moving parts, I could envision a late game rally for this storm tbh. 6z GEFS showed those HP's getting into the 1030's. Wouldn't take a ton to make this much more interesting at our latitude.When you see the 12z EPS, you will lose any hope of this tracking south. Everything seems to be indicating a Northwoods special. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020312/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_5.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017020312/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 3, 2017 18z GFS bombs out from a 996mb storm in the Plains down to a 972 mb beast just north of DTX... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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