Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 well at least i wont have the dreaded 6 hr drive up north.. sad part I wont even be able to drive a couple hrs away only and find any snow to snowmobile on for one last ride.. just another notch on the belt for the ole winter of 2017. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 I wonder if i can sneak out a WWA yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 I wonder if i can sneak out a WWA yetDepending on if the low can track to your S/SE, I think you can manage a few inches...tough call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 what really corks me is I cant believe this thing isnt cutting so far it rains in NW WI...Instead its 50's up there today but in 36 hrs the brunt of a storm will be SE... You finally broke me winter. lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 NAM is gonna be colder me thinks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 yeah its working on its little issues early out west and the little pos out ahead of it and slowly but surely getting it all in line. This is gonna be big for saints and hopefully MSP also.. Congrats guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 NAM might be a little more SE this run. A little colder as well overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Doesnt look like a drastic change on the NAM but maybe a tick better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 NAM looks like the snow is a tad NW and rain initially for SE MN and C WI...tracks into W IA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Yep. Â Then verbatim its pingers after the change over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Mixing issues approaching southern burbs of MSP...not a good run for you guys... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Some good FZR amounts. Track is actually north a bit after being SE a decent amount, but it's a degree or two colder in MN/WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Mixing issues approaching southern burbs of MSP...not a good run for you guys...Its either gonna score a coup or fall flat on its face. Â currently its on its own. Â GFS will be telling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Euro gives me 6-7"? Too bad I don't believe it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Its either gonna score a coup or fall flat on its face. Â currently its on its own. Â GFS will be tellingCould be over amped in IA and that's what is causing it...ensembles are all farther SE...if the GFS shifts NW then maybe its some to ponder on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Could be over amped in IA and that's what is causing it...ensembles are all farther SE...if the GFS shifts NW then maybe its some to ponder on...Yep just another possible solution that is definetly possible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Its either gonna score a coup or fall flat on its face.  currently its on its own.  GFS will be telling RGEM will be telling also imo. It's usually amped/NW this time frame but 6z RGEM actually had it way south of the GFS even. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 I'd ride the RPM over the NAM in this timeframe. Â It does really well inside 48-72 hours. Â GFS was very similar to the RPM model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 All winter long I have been literally like 35-40 miles to the south of the heavy snow. Looks like this will be another situation. The LRC continues to show her ugly face. I would be shocked if we don't see at least 2 major severe weather outbreaks in the state this summer because these storm tracks are like a perfect set-up.   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 RGEM will be telling also imo. It's usually amped/NW this time frame but 6z RGEM actually had it way south of the GFS even. Even this close in it likes to amp? I thought it was more out in 120+ hr range it liked to do that... I dont bother with that model anymore so I really don't know first hand what its bias's are now.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 NAM bring the low pressure center over the top of me head. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 EPS was locked in with the operational last night.. Fun battle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Even this close in it likes to amp? I thought it was more out in 120+ hr range it liked to do that... I dont bother with that model anymore so I really don't know first hand what its bias's are now.. RGEM only goes out to HR 48. It has a 989 L in Central KS at 36. SE of the NAM at same timeframe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 993 L on the IA/MO boarder at HR 48 around Lamoni, IA Big hit for gosaints Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Going to be interesting to what the 12z GFS spits out. Hopefully with the full upper air pattern included something will break one way or the other. Even though the truck is relatively close, one way or the other could mean big differences for Saints, St. Paul, and myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 RGEM only goes out to HR 48. It has a 989 L in Central KS at 36. SE of the NAM at same timeframe   My bad i read GEM for w/e reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steblow Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Going to be interesting to what the 12z GFS spits out. Hopefully with the full upper air pattern included something will break one way or the other. Even though the truck is relatively close, one way or the other could mean big differences for Saints, St. Paul, and myself.  whats your location for this event?And i agree... lets break this one way or another... tho im leaning/locking towards a 0z euro like outcome with a couple sprinkles juicer to the nw plz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 NAM HR 48: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022212/048/refcmp_ptype.us_mw.png RGEM HR 48 http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017022212/048/prateptype.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 RGEM Snowfall map:Â http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017022212/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 One last RGEM map: Check out the difference in temps: RGEM: http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rgem/2017022212/048/sfct.us_mw.png  NAM: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017022212/048/sfct.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 If those rgem temps verify ill be more than suprised Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 If those rgem temps verify ill be more than suprised Agreed, just find it interesting how it's one of the farthest south solutions. Usually at this time frame it's towards the northern guidance and more amped Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 12z GFS looks similar through HR 27. Don't see any big changes so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 12z GFS a little colder for S MN... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Looks like Fondu is borderline... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 whats your location for this event?And i agree... lets break this one way or another... tho im leaning/locking towards a 0z euro like outcome with a couple sprinkles juicer to the nw plz.I am north of Minneapolis by about 20-30 miles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 Looks like Fondu is borderline... Def. colder than 6z by HR 48 here. 30 line is down near Milwaukee. It was north of here at HR 54 6z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 22, 2017 Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 GFS showing a swath of ice as well. 0z Euro/12z RGEM/12z GFS now showing more than .25+ of FZR near here....with 2M temps of 28-30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 12z GFS shifting SE believe it or not over last 4 tuns slightly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted February 22, 2017 James does better this tun in N IA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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