March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not even close. No more snow even up here after Tuesday.

 

Absolutely nothing later in the week and next weekend on the 12Z run.

As much as I want the GFS to be right, I am ready for spring too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO has been really inconsistent though. 

[TT-SEA]

Winter at night and spring by day theme continues.    Absolutely gorgeous so far today.   

 

[bainbridgekid]

Snowing hard again at ~500 feet West of Olympia.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter at night and spring by day theme continues.    Absolutely gorgeous so far today.   

 

 

Hard to do much yardwork though with snow on the ground. I am going to try and plant some trees later today though...

[Guest happ]

SilverFallsAndrew, on 05 Mar 2017 - 10:02 AM, said:SilverFallsAndrew, on 05 Mar 2017 - 10:02 AM, said:SilverFallsAndrew, on 05 Mar 2017 - 10:02 AM, said:

Doing a little Brookings research. They did have 1" of snow on 4/5/1929. They had a low of 32 that day too, so it would seem legit. 

 

Klamath CA is reporting 36° at ele. 60' w/ mixed precipitation.  Maybe 3 miles inland from the ocean on the river. I'm sure parts of the North Coast/Del Norte co will see sea-level frozen precipitation.

[TT-SEA]

Hard to do much yardwork though with snow on the ground. I am going to try and plant some trees later today though...

That is the real sucky part. We got a bunch of yardwork done yesterday because I suspected today would be more difficult.

[MossMan]

As much as I want the GFS to be right, I am ready for spring too.

Yep with the models collapsing I am also ready for spring...can't wait for the first 70 degree day!!!

[bainbridgekid]

250 feet elevation along the Columbia River between Longview and the Coast.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with 2.25" up here this morning. Looks like the heaviest band missed us to the east. Very pretty snow though. It was wet and breezy and stuck to everything.

 

Sometime around 2-3am was the highlight here, we ended up with about 1/2" of snow in a rain-to-snow transition, most of which melted off early this morning. Had it just come in a bit later or been a bit colder ECs call might not have been too far off, there's been about 0.2" of equivalent melted precipitation. I think the NAM actually had a pretty good handle on the event within 12 hours, way better than the WRF. Currently 35F with non-accumulating snow.

[Winterdog]

The Euro is king. Bring on spring.

[FroYoBro]

Breezy with sun breaks right now. Hoping to get some heavier convective showers this afternoon. 

[Deweydog]

250 feet elevation along the Columbia River between Longview and the Coast.

 

004vc02220.jpg

KM Mountain is 760 feet.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had 1.50" of snow overnight, 1" before 12am, the rest afterwards.

Tonight should be bigger in Klamath Falls. So far my seasonal total is 56.20".

[TT-SEA]

Snow on one side of the road and not the other now... 

 

[bainbridgekid]

KM Mountain is 760 feet.

WSDOT claims the webcam is at 249 and that it is 33 degrees there.

 

http://www.wsdot.com/traffic/weather/swwea.aspx?station=2789&id=dt

[Deweydog]

WSDOT claims the webcam is at 249 and that it is 33 degrees there.

 

http://www.wsdot.com/traffic/weather/swwea.aspx?station=2789&id=dt

It's an error. That camera is at the summit and it's most definitely 760 feet. I believe that's the summit sign in foreground.

[Jesse]

I've found the troughs the last few weekends to be pretty underwhelming, at least from a purely IMBY perspective.

 

I would expect to at least see some active showers with graupel or non-sticking snow in such a cold airmass, but have yet to be treated with either.

[Front Ranger]

It's an error. That camera is at the summit and it's most definitely 760 feet. I believe that's the summit sign in foreground.

 

Yeah, I was going to say, that cam has snow on it way too often to be at 250'.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like some pretty good potential for some convective showers this afternoon, the satellite shows a still organized area of rotation coming ashore with cooling cloud tops.

[Phil]

For Jesse (and haters of spring flowers).

 

What happens to when temps drop from 80 to 19:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5C233D25-8327-4726-B50F-6745A178B934_zps5svkwct4.png

[TT-SEA]

For Jesse..

 

What happens to flowers when temps drop from 80 to 19:

 

 

 

We don't have to worry about damaging early blooms this year!  

[bainbridgekid]

38 degrees with light snow falling here at the front edge of that band of showers.

 

If that big batch West of Olympia ever makes it's way North to the Central Sound it could get interesting for areas with some elevation, though afternoon timing will make accumulations tough to come by outside of some pretty good precip rates.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last weekend was pretty impressive here. This weekend, not so much so far...

[Timmy Supercell]

Suddenly a blizzard outside. 30-40mph winds, moderate snow and very low visibility. Can't see very far out the windows.

[Jesse]

For Jesse (and haters of spring flowers).

 

 

I don't hate spring flowers.

[Deweydog]

Snow on one side of the road and not the other now...

 

Very odd. I wonder why that is???

[Sometimesdylan]

Very odd. I wonder why that is???

I bet it's sunny south facing vs shaded north facing

[Sometimesdylan]

Was 3 degrees last night outside my house. Currently 18.... 

 

Pretty cold for March!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was 3 degrees last night outside my house. Currently 18.... 

 

Pretty cold for March!

 

Haven't heard from you in a while. What kind of winter has it been up there in SE Alaska?!

[Sometimesdylan]

Haven't heard from you in a while. What kind of winter has it been up there in SE Alaska?!

Mostly cold and dry. Lotsa wind. Couple nice storms, but I think we're at about half of what we normally get for snowfall. Had anywhere from 6-12 inches fall at sea level the other day, so it feels like winter. 

[Sometimesdylan]

I'm also in my last semester for nursing school, so the weather I have been experiencing is the 65-70 degree "sunny" fluorescence of the library & hospital 

[TT-SEA]

I bet it's sunny south facing vs shaded north facing

 

It was sarcastic question from Matt.   

 

I have a launched a full investigation though.  We, the American people, deserve answers!  

[Sometimesdylan]

It was sarcastic question from Matt.   

 

I have a launched a full investigation though.  We, the American people, deserve answers!  

My bad! Forget how sarcastic this bunch of weather weenies can be. 

[bainbridgekid]

Heavier precip rates making all the difference at the Coast. Pretty impressive to see road sticking snow on a March afternoon out there.

 

Astoria:

Just North of Ocean Shores:

[Phil]

Given all the Arctic ice hype this winter, I thought I'd post this interesting paper (Stein et al 2017) just published, analyzing the variations of the Arctic sea ice extent through the Holocene interstadial.

 

Goes to show how centennial-scale orbital fluctuations are the primary drivers of the Arctic climate via changes in equator/pole thermal gradient and associated circulation/poleward heat transport. The current Arctic sea ice extent is actually relatively high by the standards of the last 11krs.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jqs.2929/abstract

 

In this study, we present new detailed biomarker-based sea ice records from two sediment cores recovered in the Chukchi Sea and the East Siberian Sea. These new biomarker data may provide new insights on processes controlling recent and past sea ice changes. The biomarker proxy records show (i) minimum sea ice extent during the Early Holocene, (ii) a prominent Mid-Holocene short-term high-amplitude variability in sea ice, primary production and Pacific-Water inflow, and (iii) significantly increased sea ice extent during the last ca. 4.5k cal a BP. This Late Holocene trend in sea ice change in the Chukchi and East Siberian Seas seems to be contemporaneous with similar changes in sea ice extent recorded from other Arctic marginal seas. The main factors controlling the millennial variability in sea ice (and surface-water productivity) are probably changes in surface water and heat flow from the Pacific into the Arctic Ocean as well as the long-term decrease in summer insolation. The short-term centennial variability observed in the high-resolution Middle Holocene record is probably related to solar forcing. Our new data on Holocene sea ice variability may contribute to synoptic reconstructions of regional to global Holocene climate change based on terrestrial and marine archives.

The instrumental record (higher resolution) would put today's value closer to ~0.55.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8AE6B7E1-A4CD-4690-8B7D-2DADA798D99A_zpsc9nlby2a.jpg

[FroYoBro]

You can see the low coming on shore very clearly on the coastal radar. Pretty cool looking. 

[bainbridgekid]

You can see the low coming on shore very clearly on the coastal radar. Pretty cool looking. 

Was just about to post the same thing. Clear as day.

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Heavier precip rates making all the difference at the Coast. Pretty impressive to see road sticking snow on a March afternoon out there.

 

Astoria:

101vc00050.jpg

Just North of Ocean Shores:

PTGrenville.jpg

 

Looks like some intense precipitation rates associated with the compact low coming ashore. Cloud tops have cooled rapidly in the trailing band. The afternoon heating might enhance the convection as it rolls ashore. It's going to be interesting to watch how it tracks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was just about to post the same thing. Clear as day.

 

WUNIDS_map (8).gif

 

Wow!