May 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Yeah, the 5.8 that occurred in OK is the strongest to date that has a decent chance of being related to fracking. However, fracking has been going on for 60 years in various places. The largest fracking projects to date (in terms of fluid volume and therefore possible geologic disruption) have occurred in Texas and Pennsylvania. The PA project is by far the largest, and to this point has produced only quakes in the 2.0 range.

 

So again, the evidence is inconclusive as to what danger fracking poses as an earthquake trigger.

Some areas with different underlying geological structure may be more susceptible to disruption than others. This really doesn't require that much critical thinking.

[Front Ranger]

Some areas with different underlying geological structure may be more susceptible to disruption than others. This really doesn't require that much critical thinking.

Duh.

 

The evidence is inconclusive.

[TT-SEA]

Sun is starting to break out now most places. May even reach you by lunch!

 

The disaster has begun.   Thankfully it looks like Victoria might be spared today.  

 

And then we have to deal with lightning in what will be a tinder box by tomorrow afternoon.  

 

Like everywhere else in the world... we need rain every single day to avoid tragedy.   

[Jesse]

The evidence is inconclusive.

I wouldn't say that. Seems too easy and comes off like you have some sort of agenda (I'm assuming you do at this point). The uptick has been pretty striking in Oklahoma. An area that, from its behavior, seems to be more sensitive to large scale fracking, seismically.

[Front Ranger]

BLI still at just .07" since April 15. That includes today's drizzle.

[Deweydog]

BLI still at just .07" since April 15. That includes today's drizzle.

Clark County announced today they are accepting 5,000 vetted Whatcom County refugees. Controversial but humane.

[TT-SEA]

Sun is starting to break out now most places. May even reach you by lunch!

 

So far so good up here...

 

[TT-SEA]

BLI still at just .07" since April 15. That includes today's drizzle.

 

I think it has not been raining for .07 percent of the time here since April 15.  

[Front Ranger]

I wouldn't say that. Seems too easy and comes off like you have some sort of agenda (I'm assuming you do at this point). The uptick has been pretty striking in Oklahoma. An area that, from its behavior, seems to be more sensitive to large scale fracking, seismically.

 

Well, it seems too easy to assume I have an agenda every time you disagree with me on something. Comes off as biased. 

 

I think the evidence is strong that fracking has some effect on local seismic activity. Some places more than others. But given that fracking is now occurring in 22 states, it's also very easy to just focus on an area that has seen a significant seismic uptick.

 

To me, a bigger risk from fracking is water supply contamination. There also haven't been any large-scale disasters from that yet, but from what I've seen, the danger seems greater.

[Front Ranger]

I think it has not been raining for .07 percent of the time here since April 15.  

 

Hot take!

[Jesse]

Well, it seems too easy to assume I have an agenda every time you disagree with me on something. Comes off as biased.

 

I think the evidence is strong that fracking has some effect on local seismic activity. Some places more than others. But given that fracking is now occurring in 22 states, it's also very easy to just focus on an area that has seen a significant seismic uptick.

 

To me, a bigger risk from fracking is water supply contamination. There also haven't been any large-scale disasters from that yet, but from what I've seen, the danger seems greater.

I would agree that water contamination is a more immediate worry.

[Jesse]

I can't help but wonder if another 2-3 weeks of a generally cool, wet pattern would push Tim to November 2006 levels.

[stuffradio]

I should make a new rank called "pluviophile" so we can be segregated. All those who love rain will only see those posts, and the rest can yearn for the sun. Everyone's happy!

[Jesse]

I should make a new rank called "pluviophile" so we can be segregated. All those who love rain will only see those posts, and the rest can yearn for the sun. Everyone's happy!

Separate but equal!

[ShawniganLake]

I think it has not been raining for .07 percent of the time here since April 15.

Their rain gauge is broken.

[TT-SEA]

I can't help but wonder if another 2-3 weeks of a generally cool, wet pattern would push Tim to November 2006 levels.

 

Nah... the longer it goes the more likely it becomes that the heart of summer and next fall will be really nice.  

[Jesse]

Nah... the longer it goes the more likely it becomes that the heart of summer and next fall will be really nice.

If the weather is anything, it is extremely predictable.

[TT-SEA]

If the weather is anything, it is extremely predictable.

 

Very true.  

[jcmcgaffey]

The convergence zone north seattle and north has still been persistent.  Have been getting about .5" of rain almost every day the last 9-10 days now.  I normally enjoy the rain but I do have to agree a little with Tim that the timing has been annoying.  It has been very consistent almost every evening it starts up right about the time I come home from work to take the kids outside and continues till the early morning.  And I know first world problems...

[BLI snowman]

I can't help but wonder if another 2-3 weeks of a generally cool, wet pattern would push Tim to November 2006 levels.

 

He's inching towards it even today.

 

Now we just need some haikus lamenting the horrors of sidewalk moss and we'll have ourselves a true battle.

[Jesse]

Very true.

That's why you even have your average Joe down the street nailing seasonal weather forecasts on a regular basis. Color by numbers stuff.

[TT-SEA]

Friday - Sunday look better on the WRF... at least good for sun-breaky weather and maybe mostly sunny by Sunday.  

[ShawniganLake]

Looks really wet in the Vancouver area this morning. Gonna be lots of stations receiving 1-2" or rain today. Poor stuffradio.

[ShawniganLake]

In baseball news. Both the mariners and blue Jays have been pretty disappointing to start the season.

[Jesse]

In baseball news. Both the mariners and blue Jays have been pretty disappointing to start the season.

Taking out your rain frustration by trying to push buttons with sports posts?

[Front Ranger]

The convergence zone north seattle and north has still been persistent.  Have been getting about .5" of rain almost every day the last 9-10 days now.  I normally enjoy the rain but I do have to agree a little with Tim that the timing has been annoying.  It has been very consistent almost every evening it starts up right about the time I come home from work to take the kids outside and continues till the early morning.  And I know first world problems...

 

Always amazing how much the weather varies within short distances in the PNW. Seattle WFO has only seen close to that much once in the past 10 days.

[TT-SEA]

Always amazing how much the weather varies within short distances in the PNW. Seattle WFO has only seen close to that much once in the past 10 days.

 

Just stay as close as possible to the homeless encampment previously known as downtown Seattle and all is good!  

[Phil]

Fracking has been a revolution for the energy sector though. It isn't going anywhere. Though I totally agree it causes earthquakes.

Yeah, it's actually contributed to the net-reduction in US carbon emissions over the last 10-15 years. There are a number of reasons for this, but I've never understood why so many people bash it.

[ShawniganLake]

Taking out your rain frustration by trying to push buttons with sports posts?

It's not raining here. Just watching the sports highlights and the mariners have been off to a slow start. I think they have a shot at the post season.

 

Not sure why you get so annoyed by sports posts but are perfectly fine with off topic discussion that you're interested in. So yea, I guess I was making a point.

[Phil]

Strongest -NAO ever recorded for the month of May is now almost a lock. The only two years that come close to matching this upcoming event are 1980 and 1993, and both are potentially solid seasonal analogs to 2017.

[TT-SEA]

Strongest -NAO ever recorded for the month of May is now almost a lock. The only two years that come close to matching this upcoming event are 1980 and 1993, and both are potentially solid seasonal analogs to 2017.

So its likely that we continue to follow the evolution of thos years through the warm season?

[Jesse]

It's not raining here. Just watching the sports highlights and the mariners have been off to a slow start. I think they have a shot at the post season.

 

Not sure why you get so annoyed by sports posts but are perfectly fine with off topic discussion that you're interested in. So yea, I guess I was making a point.

If you have something to say just say it then. The passive agressive comments get old.

 

You will also notice that I very seldom, if ever, start the off topic discussion. Even with stuff that I have more of an interest in. When we started the fracking debacle I recommended we move it elsewhere within the first couple posts.

[epiceast]

Just stay as close as possible to the homeless encampment previously known as downtown Seattle and all is good!  

I heard Ballard is a nice DRY neighborhood.

[epiceast]

Tim: it hit 31 in Missoula this morning and on track for a 70 this afternoon! Only a few cirrus clouds in the sky to boot.

[Phil]

So its likely that we continue to follow the evolution of thos years through the warm season?

To some extent yes, I think we'll follow a similar (large scale) progression to those years into/through July. I'm not sure about August and September yet, and I won't have a clear picture on those late summer/early autumn months until early June.

 

Should the dateline SSTAs/convection increase sufficiently, then I could see a flip to more of a +PNA/warm west scenario during the later portion of summer. That might not happen, though.

[Jesse]

Tim: it hit 31 in Missoula this morning and on track for a 70 this afternoon! Only a few cirrus clouds in the sky to boot.

When is your average last freeze?

[Front Ranger]

Just stay as close as possible to the homeless encampment previously known as downtown Seattle and all is good!

I have a friend/former co-worker who got a job at Zillow last summer and moved to downtown Seattle. She loves it, despite the crappy spring weather so far.

[Front Ranger]

Strongest -NAO ever recorded for the month of May is now almost a lock. The only two years that come close to matching this upcoming event are 1980 and 1993, and both are potentially solid seasonal analogs to 2017.

Seems a bit early for this pronouncement?

[epiceast]

When is your average last freeze?

I have no idea how to look that up on official source like NWS or WRCC. But google says last frost 50% occurrence is May 19th or 23rd depending the source.

[TT-SEA]

I have a friend/former co-worker who got a job at Zillow last summer and moved to downtown Seattle. She loves it, despite the crappy spring weather so far.

Its been beautiful there.