Phil Posted May 15, 2017 Report Share Posted May 15, 2017 12z Euro plays with the idea of a retrograde toward the end. That would be nice.The anticyclone could retrograde, but I suspect it will end up amplifying poleward into a -EPO, before getting undercut by the Pacific, which will bring the return of the GOA/coastal trough. The timing of this will depend on how fast the MJO wave orbits into/out of the Western Hemisphere. This summer won't feature as many ridge retrogressions as 2016 did, given a less favorable WPAC and the fact that there will be fewer well-placed ridges to begin with. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 15, 2017 Report Share Posted May 15, 2017 Depends on how narrow your definition of nice is. I think having a second Tim as a moderator is definitely not nice! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted May 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 15, 2017 I think having a second Tim as a moderator is definitely not nice!It's ok, it evens things out because ifred is a pluviophile. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 15, 2017 Report Share Posted May 15, 2017 The anticyclone could retrograde, but I suspect it will end up amplifying poleward into a -EPO, before getting undercut by the Pacific, which will bring the return of the GOA/coastal trough. The timing of this will depend on how fast the MJO wave orbits into/out of the Western Hemisphere. This summer won't feature as many ridge retrogressions as 2016 did, given a less favorable WPAC and the fact that there will be fewer well-placed ridges to begin with.I should clarify. It could amplify into a -EPO or -AO, but the outcome remains largely the same in either scenario. Long story short: There will be some sort of high latitude block through the upcoming several weeks, and the NE-Pacific ridge amplifying poleward will play a big part in that process, as well as the eventual return of the GOA/BC trough. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted May 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 15, 2017 I think having a second Tim as a moderator is definitely not nice!Joking aside, I hope you realize I don't use my weather preferences in decisions to delete or leave posts, I separate my agricultural sun loving self from everything else when it comes to if posts should be deleted or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 15, 2017 Report Share Posted May 15, 2017 Joking aside, I hope you realize I don't use my weather preferences in decisions to delete or leave posts, I separate my agricultural sun loving self from everything else when it comes to if posts should be deleted or not.I would hope so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 15, 2017 Report Share Posted May 15, 2017 Drier than I was expecting today. Nothing measurable here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 58/32 here today Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 I should clarify. It could amplify into a -EPO or -AO, but the outcome remains largely the same in either scenario. Long story short: There will be some sort of high latitude block through the upcoming several weeks, and the NE-Pacific ridge amplifying poleward will play a big part in that process, as well as the eventual return of the GOA/BC trough.So cooler summer with less heat waves? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 48/40 here today with 0.09" of rain late this afternoon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Rain just starting here Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Rain just starting hereWow, that's nuts! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 00z is running! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 00z is running! Will it add to Tim's angst or Jesse's? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 48/44 and rain all day with sustained intensity from 4pm onwards. Here's a live cam of the snow falling at Grouse mountain:https://www.grousemountain.com/web-cams/chalet-cam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted May 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 I've had more than 0.50" of rain today, but I was at around .47" at 5PM when I recorded the amount. I'm at more than 4" of rain this month now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Will it add to Tim's angst or Jesse's? 00Z run looks lovely to me... but I am a strange one who likes seasons and not year-round winter and rain. I know most people do not agree. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 00Z run looks lovely to me... but I am a strange one who likes seasons and not year-round winter and rain. I know most people do not agree. Yup, I agree. Good looking run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Yup, I agree. Good looking run. We agree. A long run of upper 60s to upper 70s and generally sunny would be just perfect in my opinion. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Will it add to Tim's angst or Jesse's? Clearly both! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Mt Bachelor announced they'll be open for skiing July 4th weekend. Could pick up 5-10" tonight into tomorrow. One more powder day in store! 1 Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Given that May 2017 looks to feature the deepest monthly -NAO on record, out of curiosity, what did the other deep -NAO May's look like (temperature wise) across the lower 48? The 9 years featuring the strongest -NAOs (sub -0.75) in May are 1948, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1980, 1993, 1995, 2008, and 2010. (It looks like 2017 could break the monthly record, currently held by 1993). This is how they looked in May: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/B6929294-8C8E-4AAE-B976-07BA94034F95_zpsilr42jua.png Rolled forward, this is how they looked in June: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/FD34F8BA-5255-4E64-A071-3ADEBC3F8383_zpsqj7yltxd.png Many of these years held the -NAO into/through June, but the wavelength relationships change during the summer, and by early/mid June the -NAO favors western troughing, unlike May. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Interesting...I wonder if there are any how-to videos on how to properly fake National Guard service. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Bush_military_service_controversy Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 No wonder you're a die hard neo-con! <_> Politics again... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Kinda OT, but it just struck me today that this place is more scenic than I give it credit for. I took these on my evening run today, maybe a few hundred yards from my back door. I need to learn to appriciate this more. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/F18BF5F7-FDA4-4B23-9A82-E2E72E61E1DF_zpsnkrlhx9d.jpg http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/35AA00CC-A6C7-4871-AEB1-96C7403B7B68_zpskqxr0puh.jpg http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/EC06050A-5060-4AFE-A6B5-881A4685B54A_zpsolvtqg9v.jpg 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Given that May 2017 looks to feature the deepest monthly -NAO on record, out of curiosity, what did the other deep -NAO May's look like (temperature wise) across the lower 48? The 9 years featuring the strongest -NAOs (sub -0.75) in May are 1948, 1951, 1952, 1954, 1980, 1993, 1995, 2008, and 2010. (It looks like 2017 could break the monthly record, currently held by 1993). This is how they looked in May: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/B6929294-8C8E-4AAE-B976-07BA94034F95_zpsilr42jua.png Rolled forward, this is how they looked in June: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/FD34F8BA-5255-4E64-A071-3ADEBC3F8383_zpsqj7yltxd.png Many of these years held the -NAO into/through June, but the wavelength relationships change during the summer, and by early/mid June the -NAO favors western troughing, unlike May. I really like the position of those anomalies. That would likely be some awesome weather here. Our worst summer weather usually comes when CA and the Intermountain West are in the center of the warm anomaly. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Lighten up buddy! It was just a joke. The faking National Guard service joke? I think it's ran its course. Everyone should be taking lessons from you on lightheartedness and not taking things personal, though. You found the cure for butt hurt, share it with the world. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted May 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Kinda OT, but it just struck me today that this place is more scenic than I give it credit for. I took these on my evening run today, maybe a few hundred yards from my back door. I need to learn to appriciate this more. http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/F18BF5F7-FDA4-4B23-9A82-E2E72E61E1DF_zpsnkrlhx9d.jpg http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/35AA00CC-A6C7-4871-AEB1-96C7403B7B68_zpskqxr0puh.jpg http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/EC06050A-5060-4AFE-A6B5-881A4685B54A_zpsolvtqg9v.jpgYou were running? What were you running from!? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Lighten up buddy! It was just a joke.I see what you did there. #jokingandtrollingaren'tmutuallyexclusive Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 You were running? What were you running from!?I saw something big, fat, and orange on my TV screen. Thought it was Donald, then realized it was my reflection. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 I see what you did there. #jokingandtrollingaren'tmutuallyexclusive Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 8139585abd5d0358c12eb1116704e396.jpg Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Unfortunate to see Jared continually taking things so far off topic. Hopefully mods can delete the other side of this. In weather related news, the 00z Ensembles are definitely in line for a major warm spell early next week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Like kryptonite to Superman, or garlic to a vampire. You know me so well. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Unfortunate to see Jared continually taking things so far off topic. Hopefully mods can delete the other side of this. In weather related news, the 00z Ensembles are definitely in line for a major warm spell early next week. The National Guard comment was perfectly on topic, eh? Glad to see you're not taking anything personal, though. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 I really like the position of those anomalies. That would likely be some awesome weather here. Our worst summer weather usually comes when CA and the Intermountain West are in the center of the warm anomaly.There are several dry/cool years in there. At least according to the ESRL precipitation grids. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 I see the rain gauge at BLI is still broken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 The National Guard comment was perfectly on topic, eh? Glad to see you're not taking anything personal, though. Is this like some sort of game where whoever pretends to be taking things the least personally wins? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 0z euro shows very warm temps next week followed by a big crash with an impressive little clipper system. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 16, 2017 Report Share Posted May 16, 2017 Almost an inch or rain overnight Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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