PNW December 2022, winter might be coming; but mostly canceled.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Yes, it is weighing down the 2 big ones by the house so the branches are hanging over the deck.  They should issue a WSW pretty soon.

Score

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

4, going on 5.  They think this could go on to the early evening.  If that happens we will be getting over a foot.  We shall see.

They did upgrade the winter weather advisory from 2-5” to 3-5”. Lol

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They did upgrade the winter weather advisory from 2-5” to 3-5”. Lol

Ya, saw that.  I'm thinking a warning any minute now and upped to 6-10.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At the end of the icon the pnw is on the edge of a massive area of cold air. Not a typical arctic outbreak pattern though. 

[Terreboner]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At the end of the icon the pnw is on the edge of a massive area of cold air. Not a typical arctic outbreak pattern though. 

Octopus ridge.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At the end of the icon the pnw is on the edge of a massive area of cold air. Not a typical arctic outbreak pattern though. 

Unfortunately the loop does not look as good... that block is being quickly undercut.  

But it is nice to see the ICON showing a little lowland snow.   Its so stingy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another meh GFS run so far. This run seems a bit colder at the surface though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Unfortunately the loop does not look as good... that block is being quickly undercut.  

But it is nice to see the ICON showing a little lowland snow.   Its so stingy.

It actually looks a lot like the 06z GFS

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another meh GFS run so far. This run seems a bit colder at the surface though. 

That block just can't hold on... very frustrating but this has become a definite trend in the models.   Really sucks because this is the week before Christmas.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS sure looking dry and cold… Which is better than the 06z disaster which really mixed out the lower levels. And realistically that means highs in the lowlands in the 38-44 range, lows in the 20-30 range depending on if you are in a wind prone location or not. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That block just can't hold on... very frustrating but this has become a definite trend in the models.   Really sucks because this is the week before Christmas.

Looks like a Happy Hanukkah for Judah.

[Terreboner]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a Happy Hanukkah for Judah.

Lots of time for that to change.  Let's hope it retros for Christmas week.

[Terreboner]

Just now, Terreboner said:

Lots of time for that to change.  Let's hope it retros for Christmas week.

I'm just so happy we get some good snow cover heading into the dry and cold period.  I'm thinking we will probably score some negative temps this week.

[FroYoBro]

12z GFS shows a long and stable inversion pattern. Kind of fun during the most efficient time of the year for them. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you want to take a positive out of this run, it is significantly colder for the western lowlands than the 06z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

Lots of time for that to change.  Let's hope it retros for Christmas week.

Probably not for Christmas, but perhaps by the end of Kwanza. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guessing Tim is going to get a lot of mixing east winds. 

[RentonHill]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That block just can't hold on... very frustrating but this has become a definite trend in the models.   Really sucks because this is the week before Christmas.

Remind ourselves that volatility is high right now and short term trends in the long range have a long time to change and likely will

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Probably not for Christmas, but perhaps by the end of Kwanza. 

The block does pop right back up... good sign.

[High Desert Mat?]

I have about 5” of heart attack snow. Don’t get that very often over here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I have about 5” of heart attack snow. Don’t get that very often over here. 

Central and eastern Oregon is now primed to go into the deep freezer. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mesoscale models show an additional 2-4” across much of Central Oregon today. Looks like some banding is going to set up too and potentially as much as an additional 6-8” wherever that occurs. Looks like right now that may occur from Bend out toward the Badlands, and towards Prineville. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1-4” possible over most of Harney and Malheur counties. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

This is very true.   The GFS flails around so its impossible to trust and easy to ignore bad runs.     But the GEFS is slightly more reliable... not by much though.  

The GEFS tends to be under-dispersed, though.

[Doinko]

Looks like the GFS tries clip us with some Arctic air late on the run but most of the cold air goes east

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like a Happy Hanukkah for Judah.

Time to invest in a snow sweater.

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The block does pop right back up... good sign.

EPS kind of shows that too but not as clean of course that far out

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 43/37 yesterday. Currently light rain and 37. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is ripe with potential by Christmas... long way off but nice to see the possibilities could continue.

 

[TT-SEA]

That is a frigid Christmas Eve!  

[TT-SEA]

GFS shows the WA Cascades get basically no snow through Christmas.    The snow in the OR Cascades is mostly happening today.

 

[Iceresistance]

1077 mb on the 12z CMC!? That is BEYOND INSANE!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Boom 

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

Just 13 days out

[Doinko]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a frigid Christmas Eve!  

The South Valley gets a white Christmas too

[Phil]

@hawkstwelveis gonna freeze.  

[Terreboner]

About time.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
853 AM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

ORZ511-120600-
/O.UPG.KPDT.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-221212T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPDT.WS.W.0011.221211T1653Z-221212T0600Z/
Central Oregon-
Including the cities of Bend, Madras, Prineville, and Redmond
853 AM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Central Oregon.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

[Doinko]

Glad to see the GFS is back to showing a blizzard in the long range lol

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Just 13 days out

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Terreboner said:

About time.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
853 AM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

ORZ511-120600-
/O.UPG.KPDT.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-221212T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KPDT.WS.W.0011.221211T1653Z-221212T0600Z/
Central Oregon-
Including the cities of Bend, Madras, Prineville, and Redmond
853 AM PST Sun Dec 11 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 5
  inches.

* WHERE...Central Oregon.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM PST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

Those idiots just ripped off my analysis…