June 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

I remember that as well.

The number of fake quotes being attributed to me is worthy of a psychoanalysis at this point. Comical.

[Jesse]

For the record, on multiple occasions during the summers of 2014 and 2015, and even last summer, I remember Tim saying that he knew the summer of 2017 would be very cool and cloudy and that he had made peace with it.

[Jesse]

The number of fake quotes attributed to me is worthy of a psychoanalysis at this point. Comical.

 

There was talk of a multi-year nina stretch coming out of 2016. This was a couple years ago.

[Phil]

There was talk of a multi-year nina stretch coming out of 2016. This was a couple years ago.

True, I said multi-year -ENSO stretch. I didn't say anything about it being exceptionally rainy or anti-Tim, though.

[Front Ranger]

Why? I didn't make a surface temperature forecast, given what happened last year. I drew some extrapolations, but it's clear to me that the near-surface boundary layer is very fickle in the lowland PNW compared to out east.

This would be easier to buy if the upper levels have been troughy. But the overall mean for the month has been above normal heights for the region. I'm sure the same is true for 850s.

 

So this really isn't about some weird, quirky disconnect at the surface.

[TT-SEA]

For the record, on multiple occasions during the summers of 2014 and 2015, and even last summer, I remember Tim saying that he knew the summer of 2017 would be very cool and cloudy and that he had made peace with it.

 

It sure seemed that way with Nina going "nuclear" last spring and it was going to last for years... maybe the rest of our lives.    Maybe all of eternity.   

[Front Ranger]

The number of fake quotes being attributed to me is worthy of a psychoanalysis at this point. Comical.

You say a lot of things about the future, Phil. It's hard for people to keep track of it all, probably yourself included.

[TT-SEA]

True, I said multi-year -ENSO stretch. I didn't say anything about it being exceptionally rainy or anti-Tim, though.

 

 

You don't remember all of your trolling because it does not represent what you actually think will happen.     

 

This month is a perfect example.   You sort of made it sound like we were descending back into winter with the AAM crashing through the floor. But that was mostly said to get a rise out of me it seems.   

[Phil]

This would be easier to buy if the upper levels have been troughy. But the overall mean for the month has been above normal heights for the region. I'm sure the same is true for 850s.

 

So this really isn't about some weird, quirky disconnect at the surface.

What did we just discuss last night?

 

My forecasted progression was seasonal in nature. As in, based on a trimonthly resolution. So, AMJ, MMJ, MJJ, etc. This filters out intraseasonal noise, which is what you're mistakenly harping on, once again.

[Jesse]

True, I said multi-year -ENSO stretch. I didn't say anything about it being exceptionally rainy or anti-Tim, though.

Well now the can has been kicked down the road to three years in the future, despite a huge Niña stretch being strongly advertised by you as recently as last spring. Hard to blame people for being skeptical.

[Phil]

Welll now the can has been kicked down the road to three years in the future, despite a huge Niña stretch being strongly advertised by you as recently as last springs Hard to blame people for being skeptical.

 

You've lost me. We're in a multi-year -ENSO stretch now, albeit weak. I don't see another El Niño until winter 2019/20.

[Jesse]

 

You've lost me. We're in a multi-year -ENSO stretch now, albeit weak. I don't see another El Niño until winter 2019/20.

Well I think maybe you over advertised it to get a rise out of Tim then. Weakly neutral ENSO with a warm early summer underway and 2014 analogs being brought up going into the fall now does not sound like a notable -ENSO period to me. More like more of the same.

[Phil]

Recall that ENSO went positive during the summer in both 2011 and 2012. Does that somehow change the reality that the period from 2010-2013 was predominantly -ENSO?

 

I may have sarcastically trolled Tim at times, but I was very transparent about it.

[TT-SEA]

Well I think maybe you over advertised it to get a rise out of Tim then. Weakly neutral ENSO with a warm early summer underway and 2014 analogs being brought up going into the fall now does not sound like a notable -ENSO period to me. More like more of the same.

 

Common theme.

[Jesse]

Common theme.

You are pretty fun to troll, but it's gotten to the point where it's hurting his credibility. I would almost go as far as saying it's become one of his biggest barriers to accurate long range forecasting.

[TT-SEA]

You are pretty fun to troll, but it's gotten to the point where it's hurting his credibility. I would almost go as far as saying it's become one of his biggest barriers to accurate long range forecasting.

 

I agree with all of this... including being fun to troll.  

[Phil]

Sometimes I'm just wrong. Do you think I care enough about Tim's wx-preferences to risk busting forecasts? That would be quite pathetic.

 

I think the problem is I tend to ramble, which makes it easier to take stuff out of context. I'm noticing a theme, where quotes are being inaccurately attributed to me. Sometimes it continues after I clarify them, which makes me wonder if my communication skills might need work.

[Phil]

Also, recall that ENSO went very positive during the summer of 2012, over +1C (to the point where models were forecasting a moderate niño until August). It also went modestly positive in the summer of 2011 (up to +0.5C).

 

I think we're investing too much energy on the shorter term behaviors, and likewise are becoming somewhat ignorant of the longer term progressions.

[Phil]

And just like that, the 12z EPS came in about 3.5C cooler during week two (@ 850mb).

[TT-SEA]

Sometimes I'm just wrong. Do you think I care enough about Tim's wx-preferences to risk busting forecasts? That would be quite pathetic.

 

I think the problem is I tend to ramble, which makes it easier to take stuff out of context. I'm noticing a theme, where quotes are being inaccurately attributed to me. Sometimes it continues after I clarify them, which makes me wonder if my communication skills might need work.

 

I think you like to use very strong language when discussing troughy periods and Ninas... and very weak language when discussing ridgy periods and Ninos.  

 

Since you do not live here... and you have said you like trolling me... it can be assumed that you do this just to get a rise out of me.   

 

The inherent problem is that you often over-emphasize cold and troughing and underplay warmth and ridging and that hurts your credibility.   

 

You clearly made it sound like summer was going be over starting in July last summer (you said exactly that) and it was going to be cold here for a good part of this summer.   The reality going back to last June is that the Seattle area has been below normal in just 1 out of the last 6 warm season months.    And that was September and it was below normal by -0.1   

 

That is 5 of the last 6 warm season months above normal (JJAS 2016 and MJ 2017).    And it was almost 6 out of 6 warm months.   

 

None of your cold predictions have come to fruition for the Seattle area at least.  

[Phil]

I suppose the EPS could be wrong, but taken verbatim, the location of that ridge offshore doesn't scream "warmth" to me.

 

What does indeed argue for a western warmth is the +NAO, but the NPAC is destructively interfering here (again, taken verbatim).

 

D8-13:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4EF5267C-7666-432E-AA63-510B87E35D37_zpsngvslqev.png

[TT-SEA]

And just like that, the 12z EPS came in about 3.5C cooler during week two (@ 850mb).

 

And yet its only below normal at the 850mb level for 2 days... Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.  

 

The EPS has been backing off on troughing for quite some time now.     You are over-playing it again.   

[Phil]

I think you like to use very strong language when discussing troughy periods and Ninas... and very weak language when discussing ridgy periods and Ninos. Since you do not live here... and you have said you like trolling me... it can be assumed that you do this just to get a rise out of me.

Yeah, I like trolling you sometimes, but the rest of this is (mostly) in your head. I'm probably biased to describing patterns with some hyperbole that fits my forecast, but I'm always careful to make sure I'm accurate in what I say.

 

The inherent problem is that you often over-emphasize cold and troughing and underplay warmth and ridging and that hurts your credibility.

Lol, sure, if you ignore:

 

- My forecast for a stretch of heatwaves in A/S/O and subsequent references to 2014.

 

- My forecast for a blowtorch winter in 2014/15.

 

- My forecast for a blowtorch from January-June in 2016.

 

Again, this is mostly in your head, probably arising out of anxiety or something. Perhaps there's some subtle truth to it, but for the most part it's simply not true.

 

You clearly made it sound like summer was going be over starting in July last summer (you said exactly that) and it was going to be cold here for a good part of this summer.

This is bulls**t. I actually said, verbatim, that JJA would finish warmer than average thanks to a warm June, and that JAS would finish slightly cooler than normal, as the Niña circulation took hold. This turned out to be mostly accurate.

 

The reality going back to last June is that the Seattle area has been below normal in just 1 out of the last 6 warm season months. And that was September and it was below normal by -0.1

SEA is a regional hot spot, and I never made a forecast specifically for SEA. I made a forecast for the entire region.

 

Many of the lowland PNW stations finished cooler than average during JAS last year, including PDX. As did most of WA/OR overall.

[TT-SEA]

I reference to the above post... when its impossible to troll me then you focus on Jesse.   

 

You did say specifically that "summer will be over" by July last year.    Again... this was hyperbole to make your point about the crash that was coming.   But it was a a silly thing to say.  

[Phil]

And yet its only below normal at the 850mb level for 2 days... Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

No.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/783A2E57-AAB9-4894-8213-21DDBC5D3B37_zpsfxtyc9ua.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/775132EE-08A2-4716-B0C4-6A7651F28432_zpshatxuf9z.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/9D633DC1-4C13-47CF-8826-ABB3BCBBBFF0_zpspcgw77j6.png

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DEBD1E5C-A5F8-47C2-B08D-D532CABFB326_zpsp6fstyau.png

 

The EPS has been backing off on troughing for quite some time now. You are over-playing it again.

No, it hasn't. You're just seeing what you want to see.

[TT-SEA]

No.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No, it hasn't. You're just seeing what you want to see.

 

 

The first image is just a reflection of the marine influence.   You are stretching it.   That is a normal to slightly above normal day on the ground.

 

And it has been backing off.   It looked way more troughy beginning this Thursday for a week or more on previous runs.   Now we have a couple cooler days at the 850mb level that will likely end up sunny and above normal on the ground where we live.  

[Phil]

I reference to the above post... when its impossible to troll me then you focus on Jesse.

You and your conspiracy theories.

 

This is the same mentality that drove you to Trump/Russia insanity. #nothingburger

 

You did say specifically that "summer will be over" by July last year.

Wow. This is a complete lie.

 

You're usually more subtle with your spin. You've lost your edge.

 

Again... this was hyperbole to make your point about the crash that was coming. But it was a a silly thing to say.

It would have been a silly thing to say.

 

Which is why I never said it.

[Front Ranger]

What did we just discuss last night?

 

My forecasted progression was seasonal in nature. As in, based on a trimonthly resolution. So, AMJ, MMJ, MJJ, etc. This filters out intraseasonal noise, which is what you're mistakenly harping on, once again.

 

Then why were you talking about the June 1 - Jul 15 period ending up troughy? Just last night.

[Phil]

The first image is just a reflection of the marine influence. You are stretching it. That is a normal to slightly above normal day on the ground.

Uh, it's cooler than normal at the surface and 850mb.

 

Sorry, dude.

 

And it has been backing off. It looked way more troughy beginning this Thursday for a week or more on previous runs.

Uh, that was a single 12z run two days ago, and it was an outlier. It has been (mostly) stable over the last four runs.

 

Now we have a couple cooler days at the 850mb level that will likely end up sunny and above normal on the ground where we live.

You have an active imagination.

[Phil]

The EPS might be wrong. But your interpretation of this run is complete fantasy.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS might be wrong. But your interpretation of this run is complete fantasy.

 

Interpretation of what?   

 

Looks like a 2-3 day cool period early next week at the 850mb level.    Might not be be cooler than normal on the surface though.  

[Phil]

Then why were you talking about the June 1 - Jul 15 period ending up troughy? Just last night.

Because you brought up the recent *subseasonal* warmth in relation to my *seasonal* forecast, to which I needed to provide some timescale context.

 

I think 6/1-7/15 will run troughy overall. At least relative to the global mean geopotential height anomaly. That doesn't mean it was part of my *seasonal* forecast.

[Phil]

Interpretation of what?

 

Looks like a 2-3 day cool period early next week at the 850mb level. Might not be be cooler than normal on the surface though.

No.

 

The EPS surface temperature anomaly is cooler than average through most of the run. FWIW, it actually ran warmer than reality at the surface this month (in most places) west of the cascades.

[Front Ranger]

Because you brought up the recent *subseasonal* warmth in relation to my *seasonal* forecast, to which I needed to provide some timescale context.

 

I think 6/1-7/15 will run troughy overall. At least relative to the global mean geopotential height anomaly. That doesn't mean it was part of my *seasonal* forecast.

 

Ok, so where is your *seasonal* forecast besides the one below? You made it clear, over and over, that you thought summer would start off cool/troughy. With a cool June. And last night you were still insisting that we've seen and will continue to see troughiness through the first half of summer. What period are we supposed to be looking at then?

 

Phil, on 24 May 2017 - 2:49 PM, said:

June: Cool month overall for PNW. Ridging builds offshore early in the month, setting up downstream trough in western US including PNW. Second half of June is a more classic Niña pattern with ridges in the NPAC and SE US, trough axis centered a bit west of the continental divide.

 

July: Normal to slightly warm month in the PNW with a possible warm stretch early or mid month. Poleward shifted NPAC ridge and a -NAO will drive a more meandering flow over NW North America, could be more of a GOA-centered ridge that licks AK/EPO area and forces a few ULLs offshore for a few bouts of westerly/southwesterly flow. Late month flips +EPO.

 

August: Cool month in coastal PNW, more GOA trough, NPAC ridge shifts westward, ridging develops over intermountain west. Could be a stronger UV200 jet compared to normal. Should be a stronger -NAO, too.

[TT-SEA]

No.

 

The EPS surface temperature anomaly is cooler than average through most of the run. FWIW, it actually ran warmer than reality at the surface this month (in most places) west of the cascades.

 

OK Phil.    

 

This is another common mistake you make with PNW temperature forecasts.  

 

Specifically for this area... the pattern shown does not look below normal for most of the next 2 weeks.    EPS also said 2 weeks ago that we would crash into troughing and cold by June 23 or 24 for the rest of the month.     Look back at your posts in this thread.   

[Jesse]

We should make a summer forecast thread before July 5th! To be fair, I will also say I have noticed a lot of critiquing of Phil's warm season forecast, but no one else has really gone out on a limb.

 

Meanwhile, very nice day.

[TT-SEA]

We should make a summer forecast thread before July 5th! To be fair, I will also say I have noticed a lot of critiquing of Phil's warm season forecast, but no one else has really gone out on a limb.

 

Meanwhile, very nice day.

 

Very true.   Jared made a forecast... no one else has.   

 

And I think Phil's interpretations on a global scale are great and very valuable and usually correct.   The specific implications for our little corner of the world are less reliable.. but that does negate all of the great stuff he posts on the big picture.

[Phil]

Ok, so where is your *seasonal* forecast besides the one below? You made it clear, over and over, that you thought summer would start off cool/troughy. With a cool June. And last night you were still insisting that we've seen and will continue to see troughiness through the first half of summer. What period are we supposed to be looking at then?

Phil, on 24 May 2017 - 2:49 PM, said:

That was our little forecast contest, which was subseasonal, at my direct request. Remember?

 

I thought I could throw you off your game by diving into the subseasonal realm, but so I've performed just as terribly as you on those specifics.

 

This is separate from the analog-based seasonal predictions I've been making since March, which you've been referring to here.

[Phil]

We should make a summer forecast thread before July 5th! To be fair, I will also say I have noticed a lot of critiquing of Phil's warm season forecast, but no one else has really gone out on a limb.

 

Meanwhile, very nice day.

Let's do it. Same locations as last year?

[Phil]

OK Phil.

 

This is another common mistake you make with PNW temperature forecasts.

 

Specifically for this area... the pattern shown does not look below normal for most of the next 2 weeks. EPS also said 2 weeks ago that we would crash into troughing and cold by June 23 or 24 for the rest of the month. Look back at your posts in this thread.

That's because it got the short term pattern progression wrong, similarly to how I got it wrong.

 

Then again, so did the GEFS/GEPS. It wasn't exactly staring us in the face.