jaster220 Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 Outstanding flooding going on in the northern burbs back home... Moment, while swim out to my ride! I wasn't expecting this much rain as all the high rez models were showing S WI getting creamed by the training storms. Nature throws a curve ball! More like a "spitter" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 13, 2017 Report Share Posted July 13, 2017 I was in a Flood Warning yesterday. Soil cannot withstand any more water. Any more rain will lead to flooding. Want to add that no severe weather has hit. So much for the "Slight" to almost "Enhanced" category level. Just heavy downpours and some lightning. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2017 What a shot! Courtesy @Barry Butler: 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2017 Devastating flooding still ongoing in Lake/Cook county along the Des Plaines River. Some of the footage is just so sad to see all the places of business and homes completely flooded. In my town, they have recently built up a 10ft wall a few years ago to prevent major flooding along parts of the river where the flooding can be the worst. The river is supposed to crest just below the record (April '13) Sat-Sun and finally begin to recede on Monday. Thankfully, nature is cooperating as there is NO rain in the forecast and pleasant weather expected over the next 4 days. In other news, Global surface temps according to the GFS (near real time data) is running near the 30-year mean. Man, Antarctica looks brutal cold! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 14, 2017 Euro weeklies still look wet through August... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 14, 2017 Report Share Posted July 14, 2017 Much betta day today. Less humid, more sunshine than clouds, drier air and etc and etc and etc. Well, you get the drift, dont ya!!?? 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2017 Since July 1st, it has been very wet near the Lakes and some pockets of above normal precip in the Plains and Midwest which is normally the case in the Summer. As one would expect, where it has been wet it also has been cooler...not much sustained heat so far this month, but will things change in the Plains??? I think so...IMO, folks in the Midwest/Lakes region stand a good chance to average near normal temp wise and may even be a touch below normal going forward to finish off the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2017 Here are the latest maps out from the JMA monthlies thru October... The JMA implies that the Monsoon season will continue to be active Aug-Sep. For the month of Aug, near normal precip and slightly above normal temps are forecast from the Rockies and points east. By Sep, a strong indication of a west coast ridge develops which may create a downstream trough in the East. Alaska seems to cool off as the seasonal transition towards Autumn begins up that way. Finally, Oct suggests the west coast ridge to continue with a similar pattern overall as the previous month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2017 This post may be geared towards those who live in the southern Plains/SW regions. I took these maps off of the ECMWF site to get an idea of where temps may be heading as we get into the early Autumn/Winter period. From what I can tell, the central CONUS stays cooler than both the west & east coasts. Central CONUS trough??? SON... OND... NDJ... Not sure if you can notice, but on the SST anomaly map below, there is a pocket of colder waters north of Hawaii and near the Baja, warm along the coast of Cali, warm along the east coast. Could there be another winter with a dominant East Coast ridge?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 The Monsoon finally made its way into the valley yesterday and with some vigor! PHX picked up .31" of rain while locations just to the NW had up to 2" of rain. They got clocked with strong winds and heavy rainfall. The region is under a Flash Flood Watch for more storms today and tomorrow. Juicy airmass is in place with DP's already up near 68F! That's impressive for the desert regions. http://www.weather.gov/images/psr/WxStory/WeatherStory1.png From 2 PM MST this afternoon through Monday evening* More numerous thunderstorms along with better moisture will moveinto south central Arizona today through Monday. Heavy rainfallwith localized accumulations over one inch in a very shortamount of time may lead to flash flooding.* Unbridged low water crossings may be impacted by flowing waterwith road closures possible. Low lying areas may fill withrunoff water. Burn areas of southern Gila County will beparticularly susceptible to flash flooding. I'm going to enjoy this pattern while I can. Temps have cooled off as well with the moisture. Highs only in the upper 90's today, low 90's tomorrow and possibly upper 80's on Tuesday??!! #Awesomeness 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 00z EPS 6-10 day temp... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 "Ring of Fire" pattern looks to ignite once again...same areas that have been targeted should be hit again...next 10 days Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 16, 2017 Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 "Ring of Fire" pattern looks to ignite once again...same areas that have been targeted should be hit again...next 10 days It had to be summer sometime down here. Looks like 3 probably pretty harsh weeks possible here but I don't really look for the worst of it to go too far into August. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 It had to be summer sometime down here. Looks like 3 probably pretty harsh weeks possible here but I don't really look for the worst of it to go too far into August.It's hard not to experience the heat and humidity down your way since your so close to the GOM. One way or another nature will deliver it whether you like it or not! Hey, look at the bright side...met Autumn is only about 46 days away! Labor Day Weekend will be here quicker than you think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 16, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2017 Welcome to Chicago, lake clouds coming off the lake earlier today. This shot could fool you to believe it's a late Autumn day... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 17, 2017 Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 Welcome to Chicago, lake clouds coming off the lake earlier today. This shot could fool you to believe it's a late Autumn day... Nice. Is that from your flight in? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 Nice. Is that from your flight in?Hancock Tower Cam... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 17, 2017 Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 It's hard not to experience the heat and humidity down your way since your so close to the GOM. One way or another nature will deliver it whether you like it or not! Hey, look at the bright side...met Autumn is only about 46 days away! Labor Day Weekend will be here quicker than you think.True. I'd rather get the warmer than average stuff out of the way before fall anyway so not disappointed to see the ridge really. What I DON'T want to see though is a 6-8 week drought start here after all of the rainfall finally erased 2yr deficits. Looking forward to a really colorful autumn in the Ozarks for the first time in 3 autumns. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 17, 2017 Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 This was a map for almost 10 days out but dear god, that was wrong. So much for a cool down. Tonight we're still at 87 with a heat index of 95 at 10p. This week is basically mid to upper 90s and heat indexes near 110 especially Wednesday and Thursday. Heading towards the climatological hottest time of the year in the next 10 days. tmax.ge90-1.png Also like seeing lots of blue in July. gfs_T2ma_us_40.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 Outflow boundaries are building up new cells out in front of the main line... http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/IWA/N0Q/IWA.N0Q.20170717.0443.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 17, 2017 Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 This was a map for almost 10 days out but dear god, that was wrong. So much for a cool down. Tonight we're still at 87 with a heat index of 95 at 10p. This week is basically mid to upper 90s and heat indexes near 110 especially Wednesday and Thursday. Heading towards the climatological hottest time of the year in the next 10 days. Yeah. Couldn't stay cool through the entire summer. I'm not going to gripe about a few of weeks of summer after how spoiled I've been so far this year in my "micro-climate". Lol. My climo hottest 10 days of the year start right after yours so just ready to get this over with and on to fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 17, 2017 Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 When did you finally hit 90 this summer?! Yeah. Couldn't stay cool through the entire summer. I'm not going to gripe about a few of weeks of summer after how spoiled I've been so far this year in my "micro-climate". Lol. My climo hottest 10 days of the year start right after yours so just ready to get this over with and on to fall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 TWC has this video of the Flash Flood from Payson... https://weather.com/news/news/arizona-flash-flood-deadly-swimming-hole Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 I remember NEJeremy mention he experienced a "heat burst" not long ago. Low and behold, Chicago did the same! Here's their write up: http://www.weather.gov/lot/2017jul16_heatburst 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 The Monsoon season was predicted to be active months ago here in the SW. It was a slow start, but it turned into high gear about 1-2 weeks ago in the mountains, but has since settled into the valley last week. Already, PHX is above normal in the rainfall category and picked up 1.2" from last nights storms. Wind gusts topped 60mph in the PHX metro area. Lot's of tree damage all across the valley. PHX avg's 1.1" or rain in the month of July. I think it is safe to say we will add to that by month's end. We are expecting more active weather later tonight and tomorrow. Next week looks like another active week with sub normal temps. With that being said, the Anticyclone has it's eyes on the Plains for the duration of this week and the "Ring of Fire" pattern looks impressive. Doesn't that precip map tell the story where the Cycling Pattern Hypothesis's (LRC) storm track set up during the Autumn/Winter?? I remember watching system after system hit Wisconsin and MN. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017071700/gfs-ens_z500aMean_us_3.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017071700/gfs-ens_apcpn_us_28.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted July 17, 2017 Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 When did you finally hit 90 this summer?! July 8th. Since then I'm at day 6 total @ or greater than 90. If I get 30 days at or above 90 this year. I'll be shocked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 I like the trends in temps next week on both the Euro & GFS...cooler! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017071712/gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 17, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 17, 2017 12z Euro's trends...6-10 Day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Out on the deck this evening grillin and chillin before i leave for Texas tomorrow. Locust are going crazy in my neighborhood! Is that normal for mid July? First time I've heard em this Summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Humidity and warmth returns starting today. Oh well, it is July! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 This heat and humidity can go die in a hole. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 This heat and humidity can go die in a hole.Cali sounds good right about now? Oceanside...I'm feeling it here to 95F/65F Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 It's going to be a pleasant couple of days: EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PMCDT FRIDAY...The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued anExcessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to8 PM CDT Friday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect.* TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100degrees combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s to upper 70swould result in heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees eachafternoon. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in themid to upper 70s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 It's going to be a pleasant couple of days: EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PMCDT FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued anExcessive Heat Warning, which is in effect from 1 PM Wednesday to8 PM CDT Friday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect. * TEMPERATURE...High temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100degrees combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s to upper 70swould result in heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees eachafternoon. Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in themid to upper 70s.Yuk! Electric bill is not going to be bueno... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Send it this way please. Love summertime heat. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted July 18, 2017 Author Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Finally, the CPC Long lead forecasts came out today which has been delayed about a couple weeks. Nonetheless, it's advertising a rather interesting run for Autumn/Winter. Before we get into those maps, here is what the rest of Summer has in store and the beginning of Autumn.... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/cat2m_anom.0.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/caprec_anom.0.png Let's roll into Autumn & Winter... Very cold Russia/Siberia and what looks like a lot of blocking in North America... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/cat2m_anom.2.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/caprec_anom.2.png Late Autumn/Early Winter...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/cat2m_anom.3.png http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52pp/sst/201706/caprec_anom.3.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted July 18, 2017 Report Share Posted July 18, 2017 Beautiful evening! Clear skies and muggy with temps @ 75F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 Picked up a quarter inch tonight with a surprise area of storms popping up. Places just to my south and east picked up an inch or so, but I guess I'll take it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted July 19, 2017 Report Share Posted July 19, 2017 A cluster of rain/storms popped this evening and moved through the CR/IC/QC area. I picked up a nice 0.64". IC got well over an inch. I was just hoping for a couple tenths to fill my barrel, so this was a bonus. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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