September 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Jaycee]

I think some models have it taking a sharp right turn by the keys

 

Just checked the 12z HWRF. That run shows Irma full speed ahead in the Gulf, bypassing FL?? Sure appears so at the end of the run, hr 126.

 

 

This would ultimately be the worst case scenario I think (even though it is a nightmare as is). When it hits the EC of Florida, yes it will be monstrous, but the bulk of the strongest winds will remain over the Ocean rather than onshore. If this thing waits til it gets into the Gulf, someone gets those winds more than likely. EURO shows this too, so it wouldn't surprise me.

[jaster220]

Can you imagine pumping gas during that craziness

 

Can you imagine it lasting longer than the few minutes it took to shred that gas station?  I don't care if you are in a concrete reinforced structure, the deafening sound, the airborne projectiles, no power, at night maybe..

[Tom]

12z GEFS/EPS are on board of a track through S FL and along the eastern coastline of FL. 12z OP may be an outlier ATM.

[jaster220]

12z GEFS/EPS are on board of a track through S FL and along the eastern coastline of FL. 12z OP may be an outlier ATM.

 

Yeah, the OP is furthest west and may not have caught up yet (as we've seen at times with winter storms). Ryan Maue tweeted that she could hit 200 mph sustained overnight and thus topple Allen for strongest EVER!! (in the Atlantic). Lookout if it comes near any of those islands at that intensity. Would be some "The Day After Tomorrow" stuff for real 

[Tom]

"Eye of a Hurricane"...

 

[Niko]

"Eye of a Hurricane"...

 

Monster!

[Tom]

I think the next advisory is going to be interesting...latest recon showed a pressure in the low 910's!  916mb to be exact...continued strengthening...

[Tom]

Meanwhile, back closer to home, models are trending cooler for this weekend.  In fact, GFS is suggesting temps to peak in the upper 60's for a large part of the GL's region Fri-Sun.  Not too many days ago, models were suggesting warmer temps but that has turned around.  I must say, this has been a theme since Aug where models don't "see" the colder temps Week 1-2.

[Tom]

Recon is in the "eye" of the storm...if I read this correctly, on Tropical Tidbits site, the lowest pressure is 914.3mb right now...

 

 

[Tom]

Could Irma push 195-200mph winds for the next advisory???  I thinks so...

 

[Niko]

Can you imagine the trough does not capture Irma, then, the GOM is in Jeopardy, need I say TX and LA!!!

[Tom]

Just incredible...225mph winds at 915mb

 

[Niko]

Pressure has dropped, so it will most likely have higher wind speeds.    Takes awhile to update the windspeed,

[St Paul Storm]

Radar from Guadeloupe. Look at that eye. This thing means business, and there's nothing in its path at the moment to weaken it.

 

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

[jaster220]

Just incredible...225mph winds at 915mb

 

I don't get that table Tom. Pressure at surface shows 937 but you're taking the 915 yet there's lower pressures than that listed. Huh? I thought the official was the milibars at sea level??? Pencil me confused

[St Paul Storm]

Just incredible...225mph winds at 915mb

 

Based on the current conditions and the fact it's still strengthening, there's little doubt this will be the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin. Just incredible to see a storm this size form outside of the Caribbean.

[jaster220]

Radar from Guadeloupe. Look at that eye. This thing means business, and there's nothing in its path at the moment to weaken it.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/anim_radar_guad_mf_com.html

That place might get shredded from opposing directions if the eye passes clean over it - ouch!

[Niko]

 

Big shift east with global + hurricane models. Still, any shift is possible.

[Niko]

Based on the current conditions and the fact it's still strengthening, there's little doubt this will be the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin. Just incredible to see a storm this size form outside of the Caribbean.

I think it has to be 190mph at least to tie the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. It stands a good chance to tie the record.

[St Paul Storm]

 

Big shift east with global + hurricane models. Still, any shift is possible.

The vast majority of those are worse case scenarios for the southern half of FL. Couldn't be a worse track. Just unreal.

[Niko]

The vast majority of those are worse case scenarios for the southern half of FL. Couldn't be a worse track. Just unreal.

Tbh, I don't think I recall ever seeing a hurricane this strong ever in the Atlantic. Just amazing!

[St Paul Storm]

I think it has to be 190mph at least to tie the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin. It stands a good chance to tie the record.

The one thing that could happen to weaken this just enough not to hit 190mph+ in the day few days is an adjustment of the eye wall. If the eye wall recycles it may hit the pause button for a bit.

[Tom]

I don't get that table Tom. Pressure at surface shows 937 but you're taking the 915 yet there's lower pressures than that listed. Huh? I thought the official was the milibars at sea level??? Pencil me confused

Yes, I was just referring to the max winds inside Irma, not specifically at sea level.

[Thunder98]

Stevens Point still haven't seen 90F plus days in 4 years (2013)! August 2017 highest temp was a tepid 82F! The avg August high is 78F!

 

http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/stevens-point/wisconsin/united-states/uswi0661

 

[Niko]

The one thing that could happen to weaken this just enough not to hit 190mph+ in the day few days is an adjustment of the eye wall. If the eye wall recycles it may hit the pause button for a bit.

Tbh, since we came this far with Irma, might as well go for a stronger hurricane and tie or break the Atlantic record (preferably over the ocean, not on land or approaching land where people are of course) .

[Minny_Weather]

Can you imagine the trough does not capture Irma, then, the GOM is in Jeopardy, need I say TX and LA!!!

The gulf is not like it was when Harvey became a monster. That was bathwater, much like Irma is in now. However, a combination of Harvey and the trough has made the gulf waters cooler. So, if by some miracle it poses a threat to LA/TX, it'll have to battle its way there. Basically, it's heavily unlikely. Only thing that MIGHT let it strengthen if it were to somehow make it well into the gulf is lack of shear.

[Niko]

Irma has an incredible eyewall. Just phenomenal. I don't think I have ever seen an eyewall like that over the Atlantic.

[Niko]

The gulf is not like it was when Harvey became a monster. That was bathwater, much like Irma is in now. However, a combination of Harvey and the trough has made the gulf waters cooler. So, if by some miracle it poses a threat to LA/TX, it'll have to battle its way there. Basically, it's heavily unlikely. Only thing that MIGHT let it strengthen if it were to somehow make it well into the gulf is lack of shear.

I think that if the trough moves east fast or is not deep south enough, then, that is where I can see Irma going west into the GOM. Thats the only way the trough misses Irma. Not thinking it will though as most models have it turning north at some point, but not exactly sure where. Thats the million dollar question...."Where does it make that turn?". One thing is for sure that anything is possible.

[james1976]

I was watching TWC and the satellite was intense. The eyewall was huge and there werent any clouds in it. Textbook as you can get.

[Minny_Weather]

I was watching TWC and the satellite was intense. The eyewall was huge and there werent any clouds in it. Textbook as you can get.

I've been in the eye of one storm. Ike as it passed over my house in 2008. It continued to lightly rain in the eye, which stayed over us for about 2 hours. What I would give to see a picture from the inside of the eye of this storm right now.

[Andrew NE]

Currently 29 at 6:45am in Alliance, NE.  

[Tom]

As I wake up this morning, I could see the ominous looking lake clouds along the LM producing some good returns in N IN right now.  #Winteriscoming

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20170906.1144.gif

[jaster220]

I've been in the eye of one storm. Ike as it passed over my house in 2008. It continued to lightly rain in the eye, which stayed over us for about 2 hours. What I would give to see a picture from the inside of the eye of this storm right now.

 

Well, if you're high enough up, they say that the "stadium effect" is really awesome and happens only in the most powerful 'canes

[jaster220]

As I wake up this morning, I could see the ominous looking lake clouds along the LM producing some good returns in N IN right now.  #Winteriscoming

 

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20170906.1144.gif

 

A chilly 40 at my place this morning, and low 30's along the rivers interior NMI. And as you see, the lake is responding. Quite the showery morning here in St. Joseph.

[jaster220]

Currently 29 at 6:45am in Alliance, NE.  

 

 I will say this, normally it's warm in MI when these hurricanes are actively plying the tropics. This year seems to be an exception. But, thinking back, the "colder" early autumns coincided with the stronger hurricane hits, see Andrew in '92, and Hugo in '89 for prime examples. Must be some correlation in the pattern hiding in there somewhere.

[james1976]

6z GFS looks like it has Irma just skimming FL coast and making landfall in S Carolina.

[Tom]

Exceptional early Autumn wx over the next week around these parts...

 

 

 

 

 

Are any members seeing patchy Frost out in the Plains this morning???  Pockets of temps in the 30's showing up this am...

 

[Tom]

Well, if you're high enough up, they say that the "stadium effect" is really awesome and happens only in the most powerful 'canes

Speaking of the "stadium effect", I found this pic that was posted yesterday of our Hurricane hunters flying through Irma...

 

[Tom]

Videos of utter devastation is coming in from the U.S. Virgin islands of St. Martin/Barbuda/St Bart's as they are taking a direct hit.  These places are so beautiful and to have them devastated is so sad to see.  I saw a video of the storm surge at St Bart's looking earily similar to the Tsunami that hit Japan years ago.  Unbelievable.

[Minny_Weather]

47° out here in SE Lincoln this morning. First 40s since June 25.