wx_statman Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Just depends on how you look at it. Could be a miss or a get by the thinnest of margins. I was sorta joking by calling it "cheap". Cheap...lucky. Whatever you want to call it, we've definitely had good fortune in keeping this streak alive. We've landed on exactly 75 a few times already. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Cheap...lucky. Whatever you want to call it, we've definitely had good fortune in keeping this streak alive. We've landed on exactly 75 a few times already.I wonder what the 76+ record is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 I wonder what the 76+ record is? I could probably find out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 #59 alive. Reached at 5:02...not surprising considering we had already hit 74.3 at 5:00. Would have been pretty nutty if we stopped just short. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 #59 alive. Reached at 5:02...not surprising considering we had already hit 74.3 at 5:00. Would have been pretty nutty if we stopped just short.This b*tch needs to die. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Cheap...lucky. Whatever you want to call it, we've definitely had good fortune in keeping this streak alive. We've landed on exactly 75 a few times already. A suspicious number of times, in fact. Hmmm.... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 This b*tch needs to die. Someday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 A suspicious number of times, in fact. Hmmm.... 5th today. 6th lucky escape if we count the 9/8 sunbreak special that got us 76... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DareDuck Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 #westsidelowlandsaretheonlythingthatmattersThat's true if you want to sacrifice the accuracy of your statements. Quote Bend, ORElevation: 3550' Snow History:Nov: 1"Dec: .5"Jan: 1.9"Feb: 12.7"Mar: 1.0"Total: 17.1" 2016/2017: 70"2015/2016: 34"Average: ~25" 2017/2018 Winter TempsLowest Min: 1F on 2/23Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22Lows <32: 87Highs <32: 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Someday...Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 #59 alive. Reached at 5:02...not surprising considering we had already hit 74.3 at 5:00. Would have been pretty nutty if we stopped just short. Crazy that they pulled that one off today under a pretty decent trough. A whooping -1 departure on the day and right back to positive departures over the next 3 days. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Looks like after getting just .02 in the last 3 months... it will be dumping rain during the Seahawks home opener on Sunday afternoon and pretty much just during the game. The front is past and Seattle is back in the rain shadow by evening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Looks like after getting just .02 in the last 3 months... it will be dumping rain during the Seahawks home opener on Sunday afternoon and pretty much just during the game. The front is past and Seattle is back in the rain shadow by evening.Nothing slows down a high-octane, run-and-gun, quick-strike, well-oiled machine offense better than a yuppie-debilitating early-fall rain storm. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 The JAMSTEC is giving us a -PDO in DJF and colder than normal winter too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Nothing slows down a high-octane, run-and-gun, quick-strike, well-oiled machine offense better than a yuppie-debilitating early-fall rain storm. Lots of adjectives! Good job Matty. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Looks like we are back in the situation where the models underestimate the speed of systems and the jet stream. This was common last spring. Everything is moving faster with each run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Incredible -PNA pattern! #oldschool#boxingday2016modelcommentrehash Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Gotta love that retrogression on the 00z GFS for this early in the season. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 JB posted a picture of the ECMWF seasonal on his premium blog today for DJF initiated in September, and it shows above normal 2m temp departures for DJF over most of North America except Alberta, Saskatchewan and the SW corner of Manitoba. Having said that, the ECMWF seasonal also shows most of North America would have higher than normal pressure except there's a big trough centered over BC and plows a bit into WA and the NE corner of Oregon. Think about last years 500mb pattern except the direction is exactly opposite. The Euro Sea level pressure is deepest over the aleutians and it is a bit more shallow into southern BC and into WA/Oregon and continues a straight line into Texas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 JB posted a picture of the ECMWF seasonal on his premium blog today for DJF initiated in September, and it shows above normal 2m temp departures for DJF over most of North America except Alberta, Saskatchewan and the SW corner of Manitoba. Having said that, the ECMWF seasonal also shows most of North America would have higher than normal pressure except there's a big trough centered over BC and plows a bit into WA and the NE corner of Oregon. Think about last years 500mb pattern except the direction is exactly opposite. The Euro Sea level pressure is deepest over the aleutians and it is a bit more shallow into southern BC and into WA/Oregon and continues a straight line into Texas. Available on WeatherBell? I have no idea what to make of this very long explanation. Last winter was the wettest ever recorded... so complete opposite would be nice. But I doubt that is what you meant. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 JB posted a picture of the ECMWF seasonal on his premium blog today for DJF initiated in September, and it shows above normal 2m temp departures for DJF over most of North America except Alberta, Saskatchewan and the SW corner of Manitoba. Having said that, the ECMWF seasonal also shows most of North America would have higher than normal pressure except there's a big trough centered over BC and plows a bit into WA and the NE corner of Oregon. Think about last years 500mb pattern except the direction is exactly opposite. The Euro Sea level pressure is deepest over the aleutians and it is a bit more shallow into southern BC and into WA/Oregon and continues a straight line into Texas.Yeah, it has a huge +EPO. Almost looks like a black hole over the NE Pacific on the SV maps. The NPAC jet is surprisingly far south, though. Above normal precipitation across the SW US, PNW, and south central US. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Available on WeatherBell? I have no idea what to make of this very long explanation. Last winter was the wettest ever recorded... so complete opposite would be nice. But I doubt that is what you meant. He says he's still leaving the idea of 133% of above normal snow for us this winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 He says he's still leaving the idea of 133% of above normal snow for us this winter. Its all a crapshoot. I don't really care if he says record setting snowfall or the warmest winter in history. He has no idea. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 He says he's still leaving the idea of 133% of above normal snow for us this winter. With a significant Nina that is a pretty good shot. I sure hope we can manage some blockiness though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 That trough early next week is looking really chilly at this point. 850s drop to about +1 before the equinox. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Looks like after getting just .02 in the last 3 months... it will be dumping rain during the Seahawks home opener on Sunday afternoon and pretty much just during the game. The front is past and Seattle is back in the rain shadow by evening. Seattle's 13th man, ensuring a resounding 3-0 victory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Verbatim, the latest ECMWF seasonal projection is a repeat of 2007/08, except it has an block over NE Canada and an even stronger,more consolidated Pacific jet stream, which plows right from the GOA, into the west coast, then straight into the southern US and NW Gulf of Mexico. Pretty whacked out. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Seattle's 13th man, ensuring a resounding 3-0 victory. You might be right on this one. Maybe a 9-6 thriller in the slop. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 14, 2017 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Verbatim, the latest ECMWF seasonal projection is a repeat of 2007/08, except it has an block over NE Canada and an even stronger,more consolidated Pacific jet stream, which plows right from the GOA, into the west coast, then straight into the southern US and NW Gulf of Mexico. Pretty whacked out.What does that do for us? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 What does that do for us? Gives me 150 inches of snow while the Seattle area get almost nothing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Despite all the action on the 00Z GFS... it only shows rain on 2 of the next 17 days in the Seattle area. That is on Sunday and Monday... and Monday just looks showery. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Sunday. Most likely. I'm planning on hiking up to McNeil point on Saturday, so I would prefer the forecast to hold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Crazy that they pulled that one off today under a pretty decent trough. A whooping -1 departure on the day and right back to positive departures over the next 3 days. Heights were still 575 this afternoon. Apparently that's good enough to squeeze out 75 with a mid-September sun angle and 850's at 10c. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Crazy that they pulled that one off today under a pretty decent trough. A whooping -1 departure on the day and right back to positive departures over the next 3 days. -3 at OLM today. #allthatmatters Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 -3 at OLM today. #allthatmattersNot when you pushed all in on PDX! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Not when you pushed all in on PDX!After today they will only be about 6 degrees above the previous record warm September. #babysteps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Most likely. I'm planning on hiking up to McNeil point on Saturday, so I would prefer the forecast to hold.That's a great hike. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 That's a great hike.Yeah, I've been meaning to go back. I did that hike once many years ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 Not when you pushed all in on PDX!It's looking good. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 14, 2017 Report Share Posted September 14, 2017 After today they will only be about 6 degrees above the previous record warm September. #babystepsIt's a month where averages drop quite a bit from the beginning to the end. Where we are now in relation to the record doesn't mean a whole lot. The remainder of the month will be much cooler than that first week and the average will drop fairly rapidly. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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