September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Tenochtitlan]

Wow, an extreme wind warning was issued for Polk County (east of Tampa). That's very impressive considering how long Irma has been over land for.

[Timmy]

Why are you a Panthers fan??

 

So much of a fan that you go to the Bay Area for a game?

#55

He is my best friend since childhood's little brother.

[Front Ranger]

Wow, an extreme wind warning was issued for Polk County (east of Tampa). That's very impressive considering how long Irma has been over land for.

 

I heard that was a fairly new warning they created a few years ago. They've been itching for an excuse to use it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

#55

He is my best friend since childhood's little brother.

 

Two people from Scappoose in the NFL. Who'd have thunk...They are on the same team too aren't they.

[Phil]

I heard that was a fairly new warning they created a few years ago. They've been itching for an excuse to use it.

Winds over 100mph, in this case. It proved useful in Harvey as well. Inland folks don't always expect that kind of wind.

[Timmy]

Two people from Scappoose in the NFL. Who'd have thunk...They are on the same team too aren't they.

Yeah, I sat with their hs football coach today. They are about 10 years apart. David Mayo and Derek Anderson.

[wx_statman]

Seems like I'm going against the grain here too. Talk until your hearts content I guess. I'll try to find the weather posts hidden in between.

 

You should take breaks from posting here once in a while. I think it will help you. 

[TT-SEA]

Still looks like a lovely trough later in the week... minimal marine layer and highs in the upper 60s to near 70.   Here is Wednesday...

 

[Jesse]

You should take breaks from posting here once in a while. I think it will help you.

Was that your secret?

[stuffradio]

How about those Canucks, TWO prospects game wins now!

[ShawniganLake]

How about those Canucks, TWO prospects game wins now!

They are going to be non contenders for years to come, unfortunately.

[Front Ranger]

Apparently Irma is the second longest lived hurricane, after Ivan.

[BLI snowman]

Apparently Irma is the second longest lived hurricane, after Ivan.

 

Jose may have something to say about that when it's all finished.

[wx_statman]

Was that your secret?

 

Honest advice. And yes. 

[wx_statman]

So, I wanted to answer a question that was asked a couple weeks ago. Will this recent stretch go down as the warmest 40 days in PDX history? 

 

I've figured out how to run a moving average function in Excel (I think). Unless I screwed something up, the answer is no. We just missed the 40-day record set in 2015. 

 

Here are the warmest 40-day periods for PDX:

 

74.70 (ending 8/3/2015)

74.69 (ending 8/2/2015)

74.60 (ending 8/1/2015)

74.55 (ending 8/4/2015)

74.26 (ending 7/31/2015)

74.21 (ending 8/5/2015)

74.20 (ending 9/7/2017)

74.11 (ending 9/6/2017)

74.10 (ending 9/8/2017)

74.01 (ending 9/9/2017)

73.99 (ending 7/30/2015)

73.89 (ending 8/20/2004)

73.86 (ending 8/6/2015)

73.83 (ending 8/21/2004)

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF was September perfection. Some warm days and cool, sunny days and one rain event one week from this morning.

[Jesse]

06z shows sub-540 thicknesses in a week. Hard to imagine that verifying, but that would make it one of the coldest September troughs in at least several years if it did.

[stuffradio]

The 6Z GFS is insane. How did it crash so much from 1 run?

[Kayla]

06z shows sub-540 thicknesses in a week. Hard to imagine that verifying, but that would make it one of the coldest September troughs in at least several years if it did.

 

I'm loving the trend! Looks very October'ish out this way.

[Geos]

Chilly morning. Bottomed out at 48. Looking forward to the autumn weather coming. 

[Jesse]

I'm loving the trend! Looks very October'ish out this way.

For sure. You guys get really great falls out there too.

[Kayla]

For sure. You guys get really great falls out there too.

 

My second favorite season of year just behind winter. Fall colors will definitely be in full swing come next week!

[Jesse]

I'm sure when the cat 2 landfalls in Tampa it will hit just as close to home for you. Sending good thoughts!

For a trolly joke-cast this actually wasn't too bad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Finally got into the 40s this morning. The baby was cold.

[Jesse]

Finally got into the 40s this morning. The baby was cold.

You should probably move it in from the manger soon.

[Front Ranger]

Got down to at least 42 at station of the gods!

 

Monthly departures quickly getting knocked down.

[Jesse]

Got down to at least 42 at station of the gods!

 

Monthly departures quickly getting knocked down.

The historic heat event the last week of the month will cancel the upcoming period out nicely.

[wx_statman]

No more readings over 75 after today's date in 2007. A developing east-based Nina can really turn down the thermostat at this time of year. 

[stuffradio]

The historic heat event the last week of the month will cancel the upcoming period out nicely.

There is no historic heat event or any heat event on the model.

[TT-SEA]

There is no historic heat event or any heat event on the model.

 

Sarcasm detector not working?

[stuffradio]

Sarcasm detector not working?

Just trying to reassure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No more readings over 75 after today's date in 2007. A developing east-based Nina can really turn down the thermostat at this time of year. 

 

The GFS ensembles look very fall-like once we get through this week. Should be nice when I get back from the east coast at the end of the month. 

[wx_statman]

I'm playing around with the moving average function some more. How about a list of the warmest 30-day periods at PDX? These are the real "warmest months" in PDX history, since nature doesn't care about our precise calendar. 

 

75.25 (June 21 - July 20, 2015)

74.73 (July 14 - August 12, 1971)

74.47 (July 14 - August 12, 2009)

74.32 (July 21 - August 19, 1977)

74.28 (July 1 - July 30, 1985)

74.05 (July 16 - August 14, 1998)

74.00 (July 22 - August 20, 2004)

[Front Ranger]

I'm playing around with the moving average function some more. How about a list of the warmest 30-day periods at PDX? These are the real "warmest months" in PDX history, since nature doesn't care about our precise calendar. 

 

75.25 (June 21 - July 20, 2015)

74.73 (July 14 - August 12, 1971)

74.47 (July 14 - August 12, 2009)

74.32 (July 21 - August 19, 1977)

74.28 (July 1 - July 30, 1985)

74.05 (July 16 - August 14, 1998)

74.00 (July 22 - August 20, 2004)

 

Interesting that 2017 can't crack the top 7 there, despite multiple appearances on the 40 day list.

 

Goes to show that summer 2017 has been more about repeated, top tier heat waves, than the sustained heat/warmth featured in years like 2015, 1985, and 1977.

[Front Ranger]

41 at Shelton this morning. Not bad.

[wx_statman]

Interesting that a number of ensemble members want to take Jose into Nova Scotia. I would definitely keep an eye on this storm if I was up there, after Juan in 2003. 

 

Would also be kind of ironic if the two biggest hurricane impacts of the 21st century in NS were "Juan" and "Jose."

 

 

[wx_statman]

Interesting that 2017 can't crack the top 7 there, despite multiple appearances on the 40 day list.

 

Goes to show that summer 2017 has been more about repeated, top tier heat waves, than the sustained heat/warmth featured in years like 2015, 1985, and 1977.

 

It also shows that the September heat wave occurred just a few days too late to really produce a historically warm 30 day period. By the time we got to 98 on 9/2, we had already cut off the 97-103-105 from early August within that 30 day moving average (8/4-9/2). 

[Front Ranger]

It also shows that the September heat wave occurred just a few days too late to really produce a historically warm 30 day period. By the time we got to 98 on 9/2, we had already cut off the 97-103-105 from early August within that 30 day moving average (8/4-9/2). 

 

Yep, and the one in June happened about 10 days too early. Very difficult to get two top tier air masses within 30 days. Another thing that made Feb/Mar 1989 so special.

[wx_statman]

Yep, and the one in June happened about 10 days too early. Very difficult to get two top tier air masses within 30 days. Another thing that made Feb/Mar 1989 so special.

 

It's definitely rare to get a full reload in the longwave pattern within 30 days like that. A partial gap (i.e. Jan 1950, Aug 1977, Dec 1990) is historically much more likely. 

[Farmboy]

Does anyone here have any clues about what the weather might be like the weekend of September 30?