September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

We rarely have such drawn out debates with so many maps when weeks of warm ridging look imminent. Even people like Jim or Andrew or I who prefer cooler conditions mostly roll with it or don't post at all. But if a potentially prolonged troughy period shows up, uh oh! Tim is scared shitless and suddenly this place becomes VERY active. Lots of day 10+ maps, lots of hyperbole.

After five consecutive warm summers too. He's going to be insufferable during the next stretch of troughy years.

[TT-SEA]

Yay, the SE ridge breaks down by day 15. Time to follow Tim down the clown range rabbit hole.

 

But I agree overall... this looks like a 4-5 day period of deep troughing out here and then the SE ridge might break down and the pattern changes again.

[Phil]

You were just posting clown range Eurasia maps earlier today!

That's a lower frequency process that's already happening now.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

You should know better than to extrapolate seriously from hours past 240.

 

That is not extrapolation.   The EPS and ECMWF go out 15 days.   

[TT-SEA]

After five consecutive warm summers too. He's going to be insufferable during the next stretch of troughy years.

 

We just had back-to-back wettest winters in history.   That is an incredible stat.   I am looking for improvement now.  

 

And you spent months telling us that the summer of 2016 was cooler than normal.   

[TT-SEA]

That's a lower frequency process that's already happening now.

 

Clown range maps are clown range maps.    

[stuffradio]

That is not extrapolation.   The EPS and ECMWF go out 15 days.   

Models are not generally reliable past hour 240. There's a reason the weeklies can flip-flop every week.

[Phil]

Lol, I tap out. This is ridiculous.

[TT-SEA]

Models are not generally reliable past hour 240. There's a reason the weeklies can flip-flop every week.

Yep.

[Farmboy]

I come here hoping to see more discussion about the latest models. It's amazing how much pointless bickering you have to sift through to get to the interesting posts.

[TT-SEA]

Lol, I tap out. This is ridiculous.

Your clown range map counts... arctic will "unload" on Eurasia in 15 days. But everything else is wrong.

[Phil]

Your clown range map counts... arctic will "unload" on Eurasia in 15 days. But everything else is wrong.

Huh?

 

I'm not basing that observation/prediction on clown range model maps. You're the one that posted those clown range maps to question what I was saying.

[TT-SEA]

I come here hoping to see more discussion about the latest models. It's amazing how much pointless bickering you have to sift through to get to the interesting posts.

 

In a nutshell...

 

GFS is very troughy.

 

ECMWF is much less troughy after day 7.   EPS slowly returns us to ridging starting around day 7.

 

Sunday - Wednesday look wet and chilly... after that it might warm up again.   Or not if the GFS is correct.  

[TT-SEA]

???

 

I'm not basing that observation/prediction on clown range model maps. In fact, you're the one that posted clown range maps to question me.

 

You said the long range models (a.k.a clown range) showed what you expected to happen... arctic unloads on Eurasia.

 

I posted a map of that period that you were referring to in your post.   

[Phil]

You said the long range models (a.k.a clown range) showed what you expected to happen... arctic unloads on Eurasia.

 

I posted a map of that period that you were referring to in your post.

Wrong. Try reading that post again.

 

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

[TT-SEA]

Wrong. Try reading that post again.

 

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

OK Phil.

[Phil]

I never mentioned the models. Nice try, though.

 

Big changes upcoming over Eurasia, which is exactly what I've been looking for. Much like last year, the Arctic looks to unload over the entire continent, w/ the Siberian High developing quite early.

 

Good sign for this winter, all else being equal.

[TT-SEA]

That's the way it played out that winter?

Yes... over 150 inches of snow here in 2007-08 and almost nothing in the Seattle area. 750-foot snow level was all the rage that winter.

[James Jones]

As our friends up north would say, you guys need to chill oot.

[TT-SEA]

I never mentioned the models. Nice try, though.

 

 

You posted a long range EPS map just after that.

[Front Ranger]

Clown range maps are clown range maps.    

 

Smartest thing you've said all day, perhaps ever.

[BLI snowman]

So does the coming major ridging episode in late September make lots of snow more or less likely here this winter?

[TT-SEA]

So does the coming major ridging episode in late September make lots of snow more or less likely here this winter?

Everything that happens in September makes lots of snow very likely during the upcoming winter.

[Phil]

You posted a long range EPS map just after that.

In response to you, and only as a visual aid to highlight what you should be looking for in regards to SI development.

 

The Siberian High develops every year. It's not something fickle like ridge/trough placement.

[TT-SEA]

In response to you, and only as a visual aid to highlight what you should be looking for in regards to SI development.

 

The Siberian High develops every year. It's not something fickle like ridge/trough placement.

OK Phil.

[Phil]

In the future, please try not to mischaracterize my posts, Tim.

 

You're the one that brought modeling into the discussion.

 

It's evident already in the tropical forcing and waveguide..no need to wait for 2 weeks. Boreal autumn is more subtle in the absolute geopotential height signals.

[BLI snowman]

Everything that happens in September makes lots of snow very likely during the upcoming winter.

 

Yeah I'm definitely getting a "good snowstorm from KLS-south" vibe from that epic looking day 13 ridge.

[TT-SEA]

Context.

 

 

I am not doubting that you are right.. by the way.

 

Just defending use of the EPS as a guide. Particularly when its consistent with previous runs.

[Deweydog]

Cue Dewey: "You both stink."

All three of you reek of scotch and cheesecake.

[Front Ranger]

Everything that happens in September makes lots of snow very likely during the upcoming winter.

 

This upcoming trough would probably result in a lot of 750' snow levels in the winter. Hate to see that go to waste now.

[Front Ranger]

All three of you reek of scotch and cheesecake.

 

[Geos]

Yes... over 150 inches of snow here in 2007-08 and almost nothing in the Seattle area. 750-foot snow level was all the rage that winter.

 

Wow, the gradient must have been crazy between your place and North Bend down in the valley bottom.

Ok, now I need to get a place with a little more elevation.    I'm 250' or so too low. lol

[TT-SEA]

Wow, the gradient must have been crazy between your place and North Bend down in the valley bottom.

Ok, now I need to get a place with a little more elevation. I'm 250' or so too low. lol

It was epic. I made a video one evening that winter driving from green grass in North Bend to over 2 feet of snow here with massive snowbanks in a span of 3 miles.

[Phil]

Definitely weighing this more heavily in my analog package now..there's something to be said about the antecedent state of tropical forcing/EHEM wavetrain and Atlantic ACE going into fall winter.

 

It just keeps coming.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CFAD139A-1D13-4FEA-AA8D-CC2C2F50C96F_zpsflrg63ly.jpg

[TT-SEA]

Wow, the gradient must have been crazy between your place and North Bend down in the valley bottom.

Ok, now I need to get a place with a little more elevation.    I'm 250' or so too low. lol

 

Elevation is not the entire story though.   I don't think the Lakemont area of Bellevue at the same elevation as this area had anything close to 150 inches that winter.

 

Its a combination of elevation and exposure to outflow through Snoqualmie Pass and some protection from onshore flow (Rattlesnake Ridge).

 

North Bend did not have nearly as much snow as we did here in 2007-08 but it had way more snow than the Seattle area due to exposure to outflow.    Still... there were many days when there was nothing in town while we were buried up here.  

[Front Ranger]

Definitely weighing this more heavily in my analog package now..there's something to be said about the antecedent state of tropical forcing/EHEM wavetrain and Atlantic ACE going into fall winter.

 

It just keeps coming.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/CFAD139A-1D13-4FEA-AA8D-CC2C2F50C96F_zpsflrg63ly.jpg

Eh. The Pacific rules the roost.

[TT-SEA]

Had SEA been able to reach 70 last Saturday (high was 68) then the 70+ streak would have reached 80 days before ending this coming Sunday.  

 

So close.   

[wx_statman]

First "Arctic outbreak" pattern of the season underway. Currently 42 with north winds at Cut Bank, with Fraser outflow at BLI. 

[Phil]

Eh. The Pacific rules the roost.

 

In what respect? If only Pacific forcing mattered, then what explains the sharp pattern differences between years with very similar ENSO/PDO? The Pacific is one piece in an puzzle of interconnected yet non-linear moving parts.

 

Take 2007/08 and 2010/11, for example. Very similar Pacific states, very different fall/winter circulations Same with 2008/09 and 2011/12.

[BLI snowman]

First "Arctic outbreak" pattern of the season underway. Currently 42 with north winds at Cut Bank, with Fraser outflow at BLI. 

 

Shades of 2014.