September 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Phil]

Mt. Agung could blow at any time. Ratio of deep volcanic quakes to shallow volcanic quakes has tightened considerably, with a whopping 373 shallow quakes and 579 deep quakes recorded yesterday.

 

Over 100 additional shallow quakes have occurred in the last six hours alone, along with almost 170 deep quakes.

[luminen]

Mt. Agung could blow at any time. Ratio of deep volcanic quakes to shallow volcanic quakes has tightened considerably, with a whopping 373 shallow quakes and 579 deep quakes recorded yesterday.

 

Over 100 additional shallow quakes have occurred in the last six hours alone, along with almost 170 deep quakes.

 

It could also subside after letting off all this metaphorical and literal steam.

[Phil]

It could also subside after letting off all this metaphorical and literal steam.

If only Trumpcano in DC could do the same. Sigh.

 

In all seriousness, based on the sediment history and observations preceding the previous eruption in 1963, I suspect Agung is probably going to erupt (though I'm not a vulcanologist). The volcano rarely makes noise between eruptions. It averages about 1.7 eruptions per century. It erupted three times in the 1800s, then erupted again in 1963. So it's been 54 years, and never in recorded history has the volcano started to make noise after an extended dormant period, only to go back to sleep. Then again, our period of record isn't very long, so who knows.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

18Z GFS shows a major rainstorm for Monday for most of the region.   

 

I assume Victoria will be sunny that day while some places get up to 3 inches of rain.   

 

 

If you look carefully enough you'll see a shade of light green positioned right over Victoria. It will find a way to stay sunny and dry here when its raining on all sides and Victorian misery will continue.

[Front Ranger]

Someone's whiny considering we just went through 4 mostly dry months.

 

Feb-Apr was the WETTEST EVER, dude.

[TT-SEA]

Someone's whiny considering we just went through 4 mostly dry months.

 

I was pointing out a model tendency over the last couple years.   

 

If I don't mention troughy weather then you say I am trying to hide it and deceive you or myself... if I do mention troughy weather then I am complaining.   Tell me the exact fine line that Jesse wants me to walk.   

[TT-SEA]

These things often fluctuate. Not just one direction.

 

In general... the models have underestimated the speed of the jet and movement of systems during the last two cold seasons.   I don't see much evidence of that changing yet.  Just something to keep in mind.

[TT-SEA]

If you look carefully enough you'll see a shade of light green positioned right over Victoria. It will find a way to stay sunny and dry here when its raining on all sides and Victorian misery will continue.

 

No doubt.   

 

My boss said Victoria was the most miserable and ugly city he has ever visited and that literally everything there is dead.   He could not wait to get back to the deep green lushness of the Seattle area.    

[TT-SEA]

If only Trumpcano in DC could do the same. Sigh.

 

In all seriousness, based on the sediment history and observations preceding the previous eruption in 1963, I suspect Agung is probably going to erupt (though I'm not a vulcanologist). The volcano rarely makes noise between eruptions. It averages about 1.7 eruptions per century. It erupted three times in the 1800s, then erupted again in 1963. So it's been 54 years, and never in recorded history has the volcano started to make noise after an extended dormant period, only to go back to sleep. Then again, our period of record isn't very long, so who knows.

 

75,000 people are evacuated and just waiting.   At least with a hurricane you can see it coming and know when its over.   

[VancouverIslandSouth]

No doubt.   

 

My boss said Victoria was the most miserable and ugly city he has ever visited and that literally everything there is dead.   He could not wait to get back to the deep green lushness of the Seattle area.    

 

I don't blame him, the drought has put everyone on edge.

[wx_statman]

If only Trumpcano in DC could do the same. Sigh.

 

In all seriousness, based on the sediment history and observations preceding the previous eruption in 1963, I suspect Agung is probably going to erupt (though I'm not a vulcanologist). The volcano rarely makes noise between eruptions. It averages about 1.7 eruptions per century. It erupted three times in the 1800s, then erupted again in 1963. So it's been 54 years, and never in recorded history has the volcano started to make noise after an extended dormant period, only to go back to sleep. Then again, our period of record isn't very long, so who knows.

 

I can't imagine the next truly cataclysmic eruption. Something like a Hatepe, Ilopango, or Tambora. Agung and Pinatubo are small potatoes in comparison.

[TT-SEA]

These things often fluctuate. Not just one direction.

00Z ECMWF did away with the significant rain event on Sunday night into Monday... trough is deeper.

 

In general... I am a fan of ridging and deep troughing.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF went from showing 2-4 inches of rain from Sunday night through Tuesday across most of the region to now being almost totally dry and partly sunny across the region on Monday and Tuesday due to a deeper and faster moving trough. Will be interesting to see if the next run follows suit.

[Phil]

I can't imagine the next truly cataclysmic eruption. Something like a Hatepe, Ilopango, or Tambora. Agung and Pinatubo are small potatoes in comparison.

I can't imagine the amount of stress the people of Bali are experiencing right now. The wait must be the most agonizing part.

 

FWIW, the largest quake yet just occurred under Agung, with the frequency still increasing over the last few hours. Also a bunch of dead birds around the area, probably from volcanic gases.

[Front Ranger]

ECMWF went from showing 2-4 inches of rain from Sunday night through Tuesday across most of the region to now being almost totally dry and partly sunny across the region on Monday and Tuesday due to a deeper and faster moving trough. Will be interesting to see if the next run follows suit.

 

GFS does not concur.

[TT-SEA]

GFS does not concur.

 

Not yet... but it does take longer to spin up the storm which is probably a sign that its coming around to the ECMWF.  

 

Now the 12Z ECMWF will go back to the very wet and fast scenario. 

[Geos]

Not really a cold morning, but very dewy and foggy. Low 51. Some pockets the visibility was down to a couple hundred feet especially along the Sammamish RIver. 

[TT-SEA]

Not really a cold morning, but very dewy and foggy. Low 51. Some pockets the visibility was down to a couple hundred feet especially along the Sammamish RIver. 

 

Offshore flow surfaced here... warm and dry and crystal clear.  

[TT-SEA]

Up to 70 here now with a slight east breeze.  

 

Only 56 down in the valley so the offshore flow has not reached there yet.

[Timmy]

12z gfs is a wet one

[TT-SEA]

GFS does not concur.

 

12Z ECMWF says the 12Z GFS is completely out to lunch with its very wet scenario for early next week.

 

The 12Z ECMWF is dry and partly sunny with northerly flow early next week while the 12Z GFS shows heavy rain.

[Geos]

Intense storm.

 

 

6" for Astoria by the time Wednesday night rolls around.

 

[TT-SEA]

Intense storm.

 

With the ECMWF showing partly sunny skies and no storm at all... I expect the GFS will follow suit soon.

 

Here is the 12Z ECMWF at the same time:

 

[Geos]

With the ECMWF showing partly sunny skies and no storm at all... I expect the GFS will follow suit soon.

 

Looks like the CMC is in between with showers for Monday.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the CMC is in between with showers for Monday.

 

 

CMC is definitely more in line with the dry ECMWF:

 

[Farmboy]

12Z ECMWF says the 12Z GFS is completely out to lunch with its very wet scenario for early next week.

 

The 12Z ECMWF is dry and partly sunny with northerly flow early next week while the 12Z GFS shows heavy rain.

What if the ecmwf is completely out to lunch with it's dry scenario...?

[Geos]

Tis the season for the storms to start appearing, so the rainy solution isn't too far fetched. 

 

Up to 73 outside.

[TT-SEA]

What if the ecmwf is completely out to lunch with it's dry scenario...?

Could be... but doubt it. This is the second ECMWF run to show the same thing. GFS is probably playing catch up. ECMWF and CMC both show no storm at all.

[TT-SEA]

Tis the season for the storms to start appearing, so the rainy solution isn't too far fetched.

 

Up to 73 outside.

Not far fetched based on the season... but because the ECMWF and the CMC and also the new 12Z EPS now completely disagree.

 

My guess is the storm disappears on the 00Z GFS. The 18Z run will probably still show it though.

[TT-SEA]

78 here now.

 

82 in North Bend... almost a 30-degree jump in less than 3 hours. Offshore flow arrived.

[Geos]

Waters starting to cool just offshore.

 

[TT-SEA]

Waters starting to cool just offshore.

 

Makes sense with that huge trough last week.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF is dry and partly to mostly sunny all of next week per the surface maps on WB.

[Jesse]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF is dry and partly to mostly sunny all of next week per the surface maps on WB.

Calm down.

[TT-SEA]

Calm down.

 

Sorry... did not mean to post about weather models here.  

 

Jesse's dictated fine line... do not mention troughing in the models or you are complaining and do not mention nice weather or you are trolling.  

 

I am just going to continue to do both as the models dictate.  

[Jesse]

Sorry... did not mean to post about weather models here.

 

Jesse's dictated fine line... do not mention troughing in the models or you are complaining and do not mention nice weather or you are trolling.

 

I am just going to continue to do both as the models dictate.

If the depiction of an early October storm already has you climbing the walls you are going to burn yourself out quickly this year.

[Deweydog]

Calm down.

Let me handle this. You don't want to end up sounding like a hypocrite.

[TT-SEA]

If the depiction of an early October storm already has you climbing the walls you are going to burn yourself out quickly this year.

Made up BS to troll.

 

Big differences in the models and I always love to track that... even when the ECMWF and EPS are the stormy ones.

[Deweydog]

FWIW... the 12Z ECMWF is dry and partly to mostly sunny all of next week per the surface maps on WB.

Jhilm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Jhilm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jim will love next week if the ECMWF is right.

 

Sunny days and chilly nights on the north side of a deep ULL over CA.