Niko Posted October 22, 2017 Report Share Posted October 22, 2017 Skies have turned mostly cloudy with some meaning, dark looking clouds developing as well, ahead of the storm system. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 From NOAA: Widespread rainfall expected throughout Monday night as lowerMichigan becomes the pivot point for strengthening mid leveldeformation in the presence of persistent fgen and large scaledivergence. Rainfall amounts carry the greatest uncertainty in thisevent, with a strong dependence on both placement and longevity ofthe greatest axis of ascent. High confidence exists in a widespreadswath of 1 to 2 inches with this event, but with diminishingconfidence in witnessing a higher end stripe of 2+ inches. Certainlya plausible scenario exists to see higher amounts given the overallsetup, a solution space supported for several cycles now by theECMWF/Canadian. 12z NAM is trending in this direction, depicting amuch greater overall response now. Outside of the GFS, modelconsensus points to the higher rainfall amounts across the Tri-cities, or roughly anchored along and enhanced by the expectedfrontal positioning. 6 hour flash flood guidance on average hoversnear 2.5 inches. With this being a long duration event and stillmore than 24-36 hours out from any potentially impactful amounts,will hold off on issuance of a flood watch. Man, if this was snow.I started a thread for this storm if you want to check it out...I'll move this post over... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Honestly if it doesnt change im not too impressed with this pattern change at all. Went from 30s for highs lows near 20 to highs in 40s one day and 65 the next with lows barely scraping freezing. Whats it gonna take to freeze around here! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 I started a thread for this storm if you want to check it out...I'll move this post over...Awesome! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Craig it's early in the game, patience my friend. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Craig it's early in the game, patience my friend.Said everyone who remembers the last 2 seasons. I remember seasons of being 80/60 at this time of year 2007-08 was one of them so this is great. Way better atmospherically than that year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Said everyone who remembers the last 2 seasons. I remember seasons of being 80/60 at this time of year 2007-08 was one of them so this is great. Way better atmospherically than that year.Lol, I d**n near had those conditions today. Oct 22 and I had to do yard work in shorts-no shirt just trying to be half-way comfortable. I can't ever remember this extended summer stuff going this deep in autumn. A day or two maybe, but not such duration. I think ORD has 40 days straight of above normal temps! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Honestly if it doesnt change im not too impressed with this pattern change at all. Went from 30s for highs lows near 20 to highs in 40s one day and 65 the next with lows barely scraping freezing. Whats it gonna take to freeze around here!Same boat with ya, still awaiting actual frost, let alone a real freeze. My wife's rose bush is still budding and blooming like middle of August and my lawn hasn't looked this alive since May. I can't see it crashing to hard winter, so likely the cold will be mitigated and not as harsh as expected. Each season has to have it's turn. I think we finally start autumn this week. It may be compressed to one month tho, if winter wants to come on hard-n-fast like Tom thinks it will. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Lol, I d**n near had those conditions today. Oct 22 and I had to do yard work in shorts-no shirt just trying to be half-way comfortable. I can't ever remember this extended summer stuff going this deep in autumn. A day or two maybe, but not such duration. I think ORD has 40 days straight of above normal temps!Same here...was mowing my lawn today and I was saying to myself....."Wait a minute, what is today date.....Oct 22nd and I am in shorts and tank top!?" Btw: my high today was 79F if you can believe that. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Currently at 67F this late in the evening. I actually have one of my fans working in my home office. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 I feel like I haven't had a good winter here in Omaha since 2009-2010. Since then we haven't even made it to average snow amounts so yes I feel like I have been waiting for winter to start for 8 years now lol. 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 GFS is trending warmer. I'm not a wishcaster by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm hoping the Euro will be our Lord and Savior. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Last time we've made it out of October with a hard freeze? I don't know, I looked back to 2006 and gave up. If GFS is on to something, we could make it out of October with the growing season still happening. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Its going to be a cold Halloween day and especially at night with snowshowers possible later on Halloween evening in my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 GFS is trending warmer. I'm not a wishcaster by any stretch of the imagination, but I'm hoping the Euro will be our Lord and Savior.-10 850s knifing into IA throughout next weekend. Not sure what that would be on surface but it looks colder than the Tuesday cold front. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 -10 850s knifing into IA throughout next weekend. Not sure what that would be on surface but it looks colder than the Tuesday cold front.Yeah I'm not quite sure why it batters you with more cold and brings in warm advection for us on Friday. I'm going to discount it and wait for Euro. I think it's being too hasty. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 0z GFS much colder and has lows in the low 20s Sunday morning. That would effectively knock out the pollen and those pesky bugs! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 23, 2017 Author Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 00z EPS trending farther south with the Clipper system for later this week as the models are prob digesting more blocking. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Currently in the upper 50s and heading for the 60s today with a lot of rain. Almost feels a little humid out there. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 My lows this weekend stand a shot in being in the 20s. So, a hard freeze could be in the making for my area. Need I say some flurry action as well..... From NOAA: Short lived upper level ridge to build in for Thursday, as anotherlarge upper level trough/low encompasses the Great Lakes Region overthe Weekend, and not out of the question to see first few snowflakesin the air if the -6 C at 850 MB (per EURO and GFS) materializes. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 12z GFS is continuing the early trend with this cold blast. It looks like high temps may be realized in the morning, with rapidly declining temps into the lower 50s by afternoon. I'm spending Friday outdoors. Hallelujah! I love cold and wind. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 When does Moneyman come back around? Or is he gone? And Gosaints? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Currently at 63F with rain knocking on my doorstep. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 00z EPS trending farther south with the Clipper system for later this week as the models are prob digesting more blocking. Saw a GFS 7d snow total with places in the UP ova a foot! by week's end. #winternow! for them peeps. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 When does Moneyman come back around? Or is he gone? And Gosaints?Friday was looking like a possibility. Now not so much... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Raining now but still mild. Temps holding in the 60s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Friday was looking like a possibility. Now not so much...Haha I knew you’d be around soon. We both should see a few flakes on Friday though. It’s a start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 MPX going with a low of 29F and 30 mph winds with rain/snow mix on Thursday evening. Giddy up! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 12z GFS is continuing the early trend with this cold blast. It looks like high temps may be realized in the morning, with rapidly declining temps into the lower 50s by afternoon. I'm spending Friday outdoors. Hallelujah! I love cold and wind. Brehhhh. I'd take warm and no precip over cold and no precip lol but hey I mean you do you! I guess it's exciting to see some real cold come down in October. I'm just hoping we don't get too dry around here in the coming weeks, November is usually a pretty dull month for us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 MPX going with a low of 29F and 30 mph winds with rain/snow mix on Thursday evening. Giddy up!Brrrrr. Somebody woke up Old Man Winter and apparently on the wrong side of the bed. Looking forward to it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 I have a good chance of hitting the freezing mark this weekend, if not going lower than that. Flurries are also possible. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 Per NOAA:Transient upper level ridging will build into the region on Thursdaybringing dry conditions as highs increase to the upper 50s.Southwesterly flow will then increase late Thursday into Fridayahead of the next low pressure system organizing over the NorthernPlains. As the low tracks through the Northern Great Lakes, a coldfront will push through the region with a period of showersaccompanying the frontal passage. The 12Z GFS and Canadian solutionscontinue to advertise an earlier frontal passage late Friday whilethe 12Z Euro favors a later frontal passage on Saturday. The maindifference between these solutions is the location of an amplifyingupper level trough and associated jet streak with the Euro keepingthe trough axis just west of the region on Saturday. Regardless,upper level troughing looks to build into the region for theremainder of the weekend as highs fall into the upper 40s with thefirst shot at widespread low temperatures below freezing on Sundaymorning. (20S ARE A REAL POSSIBILITY) Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted October 23, 2017 Report Share Posted October 23, 2017 18z GFS is more snowy with the weekend storm. I really hope Stevens point can score some. I don't care of it snows by me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 12z EURO and 18z GFS definitely further south with snow this weekend. 12z EURO even gives us in Omaha some periods of light snow showers! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 12z EURO and 18z GFS definitely further south with snow this weekend. 12z EURO even gives us in Omaha some periods of light snow showers!Flurries definitely wouldn't surprise me. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 I'm just hoping we don't get too dry around here in the coming weeks, November is usually a pretty dull month for us...not this one! 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Haha I knew you’d be around soon. We both should see a few flakes on Friday though. It’s a start.It's raw right now.. That northwester became real the last hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Temps are starting to drop now as winds are really howling out there. Temp @ 58F. Rain has ended briefly. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Man did it change late afternoon. Clouds rolled in and that NW wind really picked up. In a wind advisory. Temp down to upper 40s now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted October 24, 2017 Report Share Posted October 24, 2017 Winds gusted to 50 today. Was near 64 for a high but should be 55 tomorrow. Warms up before the big cool down this weekend. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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