Tom Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 Is there another Festive Snow on the way for the Upper MW/MW members? Several models laying down an advisory level snowfall somewhere from the Dakotas into the MW region. The OP's have been showing this wave to hold its act together a bit longer along the base of the Eastern CONUS trough that'll allow for a ribbon of snow to makes its way farther S/SE. 0z/06z GFS... 0z GGEM... 0z Euro... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 0z EPS...Fluff Factor should be rather high in the 20:1 ratio or more... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 06z RGEM...I find the Canadien model seems to handle these clippers the best over the years... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 The Euro has steadily been increasing amounts to the southeast. Previously it had been significantly drying up as it gets into Iowa and the midwest. 2 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 The NAM dramatically ticked up amounts as well 2 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 GFS follows suit. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 We may end up getting more out of this, than the current storm 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 Man, this is starting to look like I'll be missed with only a half inch or so while a county or two to my NW gets 2-3 inches on Christmas day. I tell ya, just my luck this week. 1 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Man, this is starting to look like I'll be missed with only a half inch or so while a county or two to my NW gets 2-3 inches on Christmas day. I tell ya, just my luck this week. Didn’t you get like 8” in 3 hours just the other week that was not forecast? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 Canadian a little weaker, but again has the general idea 1 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 37 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Canadian a little weaker, but again has the general idea These amounts must include today's/tomorrow's storm totals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 Hopefully this pans out. If it does, then, dang, it looks impressive. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2022 -23 for Metro Detroit Area Oct'22: Trace / Normal is 0.0" Nov'22: 2.5" Below Average /Normal is 2.9" Dec'22: 5.0" Below Average / Normal is 8.5" Jan'23: 11.2" Below Average / Normal is 14.3" Feb '23: 2.2" Well Below Average / Normal is 18.4" March '23: 16.1" Above Average / Normal is 5.0" (Season is @ 37.0") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 No mention of this from DTX Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 23, 2022 Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 What I like about clippers is that you kinda know what you'll get from them and they tend to pan out. 12z Euro seems to be in line with the Canadian that Bud shared. GEFS Ens Mean: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 23, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 23, 2022 18z NAM... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2022 0z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2022 0z EPS... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 24, 2022 Report Share Posted December 24, 2022 Liking the slight trend to the SW on some of the 00z and most of the 06z suite of models. Hope that continues. 2 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2022 Report Share Posted December 24, 2022 EAX mentioning some Frz Rain with this clipper. - Wintry weather becoming more likely Christmas night into Monday. Focus then turns to a strong but moisture limited clipper system moving into the area Christmas evening and overnight into Monday. Models have trended toward showing a tongue of warm air aloft working into the system. This warm layer aloft greatly complicates the forecast and allows for the potential for freezing rain and sleet, in addition to, the snow. This warm layer is ahead of what looks like pronounced dry slot that wraps into the shortwave. This feature also adds a challenging wrinkle to the forecast as it removes cloud ice but keeps some lower level saturation present, leading to a possible period of freezing drizzle. With precipitation primarily developing in the warmer and more most air moving into the system, and surface temperatures likely remaining below freezing, there is a short period of time when freezing rain looks possible across eastern KS and western MO. This looks most likely from about 03Z Monday to 09Z Monday in a relatively narrow corridor before the dry slot moves across. Some freezing drizzle also looks possible once the dry slot moves over and this looks mainly confined to northern Missouri and far northeastern KS early Monday morning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2022 Report Share Posted December 24, 2022 MPX says a WWA will likely be needed for a band of 3-4" but isn't sure exactly where that will set up yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 24, 2022 Report Share Posted December 24, 2022 This system is only 30 hours away, but models are not on the same page. The last couple 3k NAM runs show almost nothing in Iowa. The 12k NAM has a band, but well sw of me. Other models, like the GFS, have the band through me. 1 Quote season snowfall: 29.3" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2022 Report Share Posted December 25, 2022 4 hours ago, james1976 said: MPX says a WWA will likely be needed for a band of 3-4" but isn't sure exactly where that will set up yet. Over your place, ofc 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 25, 2022 Report Share Posted December 25, 2022 I went from 0% chance of exceeding an inch on last night's 00z GEFS run to a 50-60% on the 18z run. Not bad. 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2022 Report Share Posted December 25, 2022 GFS remains with a solid band through Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 25, 2022 Report Share Posted December 25, 2022 NWS FSD went from 'snow accumulations an inch or less' to now calling for 1-3 inches. I'll take it! 2 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2022 Report Share Posted December 25, 2022 13 hours ago, jaster220 said: Over your place, ofc Haha nope way west of me 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 25, 2022 Report Share Posted December 25, 2022 It's only a few hours away, but models still are not on the same page. Some models, like the GFS and UK, have shifted the best snow more toward central Iowa. The Euro is consistent, but pretty weak. The HRRR has been juicing it up for Cedar Rapids, with the latest run showing a band of 3-4" through here. 1 Quote season snowfall: 29.3" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 25, 2022 Report Share Posted December 25, 2022 It's been snowing here for the past couple hours which helped me realize, after tracking this for the past few days worrying about how much on the edge I'd be, that I don't really care about how much it snows. It's freaking snow on Christmas!!! That's enough in and of itself. So happy. 3 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 25, 2022 Report Share Posted December 25, 2022 Not much expected here but a little light snow on Christmas day will be nice. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 222 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022 KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ020-021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054- 260600- /O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0011.221226T0000Z-221226T0600Z/ ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and central, northwest and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to midnight CST tonight. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted December 25, 2022 Report Share Posted December 25, 2022 Nice Christmas snow here in Omaha, just enough to refresh the existing snowcover… Merry Christmas everyone! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2022 Report Share Posted December 26, 2022 Freezing rain the last couple of hours have made the roads, streets, and sidewalks very slick. Winter Weather Advisory in effect. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2022 I'm getting some very light snow at the moment with a dusting so far...not expecting much but I'm hoping I can see some flakes flying this morning to add to the winter feel while we have a couple more days of it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2022 Report Share Posted December 26, 2022 Eye balling it looks like 1-1.5” has fallen here. Finally getting a little daytime snow this morning. Pretty start to the day. 4 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted December 26, 2022 Report Share Posted December 26, 2022 Clipper is over performing here! 2 plus inches 20221226_075813.mp4 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 26, 2022 Report Share Posted December 26, 2022 After last night's weak wave of pixie dust I was afraid we might only get an inch, but a nice batch of fluffy, dendritic snow (way too brief) popped over the area this morning and boosted the total to a solid 2.5 inches. Unlike the 8.5 to 1 ratio sugar a few days ago, this stuff is very fluffy (20 to 1). 6 Quote season snowfall: 29.3" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 26, 2022 Report Share Posted December 26, 2022 This thing ended up producing as much as the storm the other day! And thankfully without the crazy wind and cold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted December 26, 2022 Report Share Posted December 26, 2022 Ended up with 1.5 from this one. Such good timing. 4 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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