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Christmas Day/Night Clipper System


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Is there another Festive Snow on the way for the Upper MW/MW members?  Several models laying down an advisory level snowfall somewhere from the Dakotas into the MW region.  The OP's have been showing this wave to hold its act together a bit longer along the base of the Eastern CONUS trough that'll allow for a ribbon of snow to makes its way farther S/SE.

0z/06z GFS...





0z GGEM...




0z Euro...



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Hopefully this pans out. If it does, then, dang, it looks impressive.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN Insane!

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024: Trace

Season So Far: 26.7"

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EAX mentioning some Frz Rain with this clipper. 😬

- Wintry weather becoming more likely Christmas night into Monday.
Focus then turns to a strong but moisture limited clipper system
moving into the area Christmas evening and overnight into Monday.
Models have trended toward showing a tongue of warm air aloft
working into the system. This warm layer aloft greatly complicates
the forecast and allows for the potential for freezing rain and
sleet, in addition to, the snow. This warm layer is ahead of what
looks like pronounced dry slot that wraps into the shortwave. This
feature also adds a challenging wrinkle to the forecast as it
removes cloud ice but keeps some lower level saturation present,
leading to a possible period of freezing drizzle. With precipitation
primarily developing in the warmer and more most air moving into the
system, and surface temperatures likely remaining below freezing,
there is a short period of time when freezing rain looks possible
across eastern KS and western MO. This looks most likely from about
03Z Monday to 09Z Monday in a relatively narrow corridor before the
dry slot moves across. Some freezing drizzle also looks possible
once the dry slot moves over and this looks mainly confined to
northern Missouri and far northeastern KS early Monday morning.


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This system is only 30 hours away, but models are not on the same page.  The last couple 3k NAM runs show almost nothing in Iowa.  The 12k NAM has a band, but well sw of me.  Other models, like the GFS, have the band through me.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, james1976 said:

MPX says a WWA will likely be needed for a band of 3-4" but isn't sure exactly where that will set up yet.

Over your place, ofc 😛

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It's only a few hours away, but models still are not on the same page.  Some models, like the GFS and UK, have shifted the best snow more toward central Iowa.  The Euro is consistent, but pretty weak.  The HRRR has been juicing it up for Cedar Rapids, with the latest run showing a band of 3-4" through here.


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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not much expected here but a little light snow on Christmas day will be nice.

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
222 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022



* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.


Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

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After last night's weak wave of pixie dust I was afraid we might only get an inch, but a nice batch of fluffy, dendritic snow (way too brief) popped over the area this morning and boosted the total to a solid 2.5 inches.  Unlike the 8.5 to 1 ratio sugar a few days ago, this stuff is very fluffy (20 to 1).

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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