Christmas Day/Night Clipper System

[Tom]

Is there another Festive Snow on the way for the Upper MW/MW members?  Several models laying down an advisory level snowfall somewhere from the Dakotas into the MW region.  The OP's have been showing this wave to hold its act together a bit longer along the base of the Eastern CONUS trough that'll allow for a ribbon of snow to makes its way farther S/SE.

0z/06z GFS...

 

 

0z GGEM...

 

 

0z Euro...

 

[Tom]

0z EPS...Fluff Factor should be rather high in the 20:1 ratio or more...

 

[Tom]

06z RGEM...I find the Canadien model seems to handle these clippers the best over the years...

 

[bud2380]

The Euro has steadily been increasing amounts to the southeast.  Previously it had been significantly drying up as it gets into Iowa and the midwest.

 

[bud2380]

The NAM dramatically ticked up amounts as well

 

[bud2380]

GFS follows suit. 

[ChiTownSnow]

We may end up getting more out of this, than the current storm

[hawkstwelve]

Man, this is starting to look like I'll be missed with only a half inch or so while a county or two to my NW gets 2-3 inches on Christmas day. I tell ya, just my luck this week.

[OmahaSnowFan]

30 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Man, this is starting to look like I'll be missed with only a half inch or so while a county or two to my NW gets 2-3 inches on Christmas day. I tell ya, just my luck this week.

Didn’t you get like 8” in 3 hours just the other week that was not forecast?

[bud2380]

Canadian a little weaker, but again has the general idea

 

[uticasnow]

37 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Canadian a little weaker, but again has the general idea

 

These amounts must include today's/tomorrow's storm totals?

[Niko]

Hopefully this pans out. If it does, then, dang, it looks impressive.

[uticasnow]

No mention of this from DTX

[Clinton]

What I like about clippers is that you kinda know what you'll get from them and they tend to pan out.  12z Euro seems to be in line with the Canadian that Bud shared.

GEFS Ens Mean:

[Tom]

18z NAM...

[Tom]

0z Euro...

[Tom]

0z EPS...

[hawkstwelve]

Liking the slight trend to the SW on some of the 00z and most of the 06z suite of models. Hope that continues.

[Clinton]

EAX mentioning some Frz Rain with this clipper. 

- Wintry weather becoming more likely Christmas night into Monday.

Focus then turns to a strong but moisture limited clipper system
moving into the area Christmas evening and overnight into Monday.
Models have trended toward showing a tongue of warm air aloft
working into the system. This warm layer aloft greatly complicates
the forecast and allows for the potential for freezing rain and
sleet, in addition to, the snow. This warm layer is ahead of what
looks like pronounced dry slot that wraps into the shortwave. This
feature also adds a challenging wrinkle to the forecast as it
removes cloud ice but keeps some lower level saturation present,
leading to a possible period of freezing drizzle. With precipitation
primarily developing in the warmer and more most air moving into the
system, and surface temperatures likely remaining below freezing,
there is a short period of time when freezing rain looks possible
across eastern KS and western MO. This looks most likely from about
03Z Monday to 09Z Monday in a relatively narrow corridor before the
dry slot moves across. Some freezing drizzle also looks possible
once the dry slot moves over and this looks mainly confined to
northern Missouri and far northeastern KS early Monday morning.

 

[james1976]

MPX says a WWA will likely be needed for a band of 3-4" but isn't sure exactly where that will set up yet.

[Hawkeye]

This system is only 30 hours away, but models are not on the same page.  The last couple 3k NAM runs show almost nothing in Iowa.  The 12k NAM has a band, but well sw of me.  Other models, like the GFS, have the band through me.

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, james1976 said:

MPX says a WWA will likely be needed for a band of 3-4" but isn't sure exactly where that will set up yet.

Over your place, ofc 

[hawkstwelve]

I went from 0% chance of exceeding an inch on last night's 00z GEFS run to a 50-60% on the 18z run. Not bad. 

[bud2380]

GFS remains with a solid band through Iowa city and Cedar Rapids. 

[hawkstwelve]

NWS FSD went from 'snow accumulations an inch or less' to now calling for 1-3 inches. I'll take it!

[james1976]

13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Over your place, ofc 

Haha nope way west of me

[Hawkeye]

It's only a few hours away, but models still are not on the same page.  Some models, like the GFS and UK, have shifted the best snow more toward central Iowa.  The Euro is consistent, but pretty weak.  The HRRR has been juicing it up for Cedar Rapids, with the latest run showing a band of 3-4" through here.

[hawkstwelve]

It's been snowing here for the past couple hours which helped me realize, after tracking this for the past few days worrying about how much on the edge I'd be, that I don't really care about how much it snows. It's freaking snow on Christmas!!! That's enough in and of itself. So happy.

[Clinton]

Not much expected here but a little light snow on Christmas day will be nice.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
222 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2022

KSZ025-057-060-103>105-MOZ020-021-028>030-037-038-043>045-053-054-
260600-
/O.NEW.KEAX.WW.Y.0011.221226T0000Z-221226T0600Z/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to one inch and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to midnight CST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

[Bryan1117]

Nice Christmas snow here in Omaha, just enough to refresh the existing snowcover… Merry Christmas everyone!

[CentralNebWeather]

Freezing rain the last couple of hours have made the roads, streets, and sidewalks very slick. Winter Weather Advisory in effect. 

[Tom]

I'm getting some very light snow at the moment with a dusting so far...not expecting much but I'm hoping I can see some flakes flying this morning to add to the winter feel while we have a couple more days of it.

[bud2380]

Eye balling it looks like 1-1.5” has fallen here. Finally getting a little daytime snow this morning. Pretty start to the day. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Clipper is over performing  here! 2 plus inches 

[Hawkeye]

After last night's weak wave of pixie dust I was afraid we might only get an inch, but a nice batch of fluffy, dendritic snow (way too brief) popped over the area this morning and boosted the total to a solid 2.5 inches.  Unlike the 8.5 to 1 ratio sugar a few days ago, this stuff is very fluffy (20 to 1).

[East Dubzz]

This thing ended up producing as much as the storm the other day! And thankfully without the crazy wind and cold.

[hawkstwelve]

Ended up with 1.5 from this one. Such good timing.