November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

13/20 GEFS members have >1" by the end of the run here. 5/20 for 11/25.

[Snowlover76]

Wouldn't be winter without Money telling Nebraska posters to get over a decade of futility

[hlcater]

Money is a troll.  I've given him a warning in the past.  It's best to just ignore him.  You are allowed to complain about the weather in a weather forum.  It falls under weather discussion.  What you're not allowed to do is attack posters.  That is what Money is all about.  If it was up to me he would be kicked off the board.

I don't mind the complaining. I do it too, all I ask is that it's largely kept to the complaining thread in order to keep the other threads "cleaner." We have it for a reason.

[james1976]

18z GFS more active and colder throughout the run. Carving out some bigtime troughs.

[Minny_Weather]

I don't mind the complaining. I do it too, all I ask is that it's largely kept to the complaining thread in order to keep the other threads "cleaner." We have it for a reason.

I don't see the problem with having it in the main threads if it's regarding current events. If you're gonna complain about an entire season or whatever, I agree with you. But if we're complaining about a weather pattern in November, then this is the November thread. Go figure.

[Minny_Weather]

18z GFS runs @ Hr 384 never fail to amuse me. I have never seen purple in precip type maps.

 

[Minny_Weather]

In other news, the latest Euro weeklies are out. The storm in my last post is not entirely far fetched. It is looking like many models are wanting to latch onto a trough as we wrap up November and head into December. Besides CFSv2, which is a joke imo. 

 

It is, however, disappointingly dry throughout December. And warm. We will see.

[Tom]

In other news, the latest Euro weeklies are out. The storm in my last post is not entirely far fetched. It is looking like many models are wanting to latch onto a trough as we wrap up November and head into December. Besides CFSv2, which is a joke imo. 

 

It is, however, disappointingly dry throughout December. And warm. We will see.

There are a few things that do catch my eye though.  The model does see the Bearing Sea ridge replaced by low pressures and the NE PAC trough replace by HP as we flip into December.  Both of these transitions don't signal warmth.  So its either right or wrong with what happens in the N PAC.  Look at all the storms that track along the Aleutian islands.

[jaster220]

Wouldn't be winter without Money telling Nebraska posters to get over a decade of futility

Truly excellent spin! Kudos. Being a snow lover I actually GET the complaining, especially when you're getting the shaft. What I don't get is Money's need to make an issue of it. But, as you have noticed, we all have our little quirks. I'd rather have some banter than the squelched atmosphere of AmWx's sub

[Minny_Weather]

Wouldn't be winter without Money telling Nebraska posters to get over a decade of futility

Nothing better to get you in a Christmas mood than Money carols.

 

"D**n Nebraskans won't stop whining fa la la la la, la la la la."

[OKwx2k4]

Nothing better to get you in a Christmas mood than Money carols.

 

"d**n Nebraskans won't stop whining fa la la la la, la la la la."

Guy just needs to work on his sense of humor a bit. I just make light of the crappy weather and move on anymore. At least you guys try to make others laugh. I appreciate it personally.

 

@whoever asked about age..

33 and love snow and cold. I still play in it and watch it snow all night. I hate the heat and always will. Lol

[Niko]

If that pans out, yby could be in for some genuine "Squall Warning" wx

[Tom]

Interesting stat for Chicago through the first 13 days:

 

 

 

Has this November felt cold to you? Stats say yes! Opening 2 weeks rank 10th chilliest on record since 1871 and coldest in 21 yrs, averaging more than 6 deg below normal.

 

[Niko]

Currently 39F and cloudy. Just did a pleasant jog outside and feels fairly comfortable.

[hlcater]

There was some thick frost in the area this morning created by some dense fog overnight. Decided to try out my new camera on it, and I think this one turned out alright. 

 

[Hawkeye]

I'm 43.  I still love watching snow fall, but overnight snow doesn't do much for me anymore, and a lack of snow in general just doesn't bother me like it did ten or twenty years ago.  The last two winters were horrible for snow lovers, but at this point in my life I just think, "Whatever, we'll have another snowy winter again at some point."  Also, the older I get, the less I like the cold, and the less I like cleaning the driveway/sidewalk/patio.

[Money]

Gfs getting a little stronger for the storm around thanksgiving

 

Panhandle hook type storm that cuts from OK through C IL into IN

[Money]

Gfs getting a little stronger for the storm around thanksgiving

 

Panhandle hook type storm that cuts from OK through C IL into IN

Gem is also on board with this

[Minny_Weather]

I'm 43. I still love watching snow fall, but overnight snow doesn't do much for me anymore, and a lack of snow in general just doesn't bother me like it did ten or twenty years ago. The last two winters were horrible for snow lovers, but at this point in my life I just think, "Whatever, we'll have another snowy winter again at some point." Also, the older I get, the less I like the cold, and the less I like cleaning the driveway/sidewalk/patio.

I wish I didn't live in a bachelor pad and I actually had a driveway to shovel. That'd at least motivate me to work out every time it snowed.

[OKwx2k4]

AO trending down again. NAO noticeably lower too this run. Something's brewing down the road.

 

 

 

The models at longer ranges are all too warm for their indices. This is important to think about when considering possible model corrections over the next 5 days or so.

[OKwx2k4]

Getting closer.

[OKwx2k4]

Another one. These are out of order.

 

Great pattern.

[james1976]

GFS with just a weak wave around the 22nd this run.

[Tom]

00z GEFS/EPS could not be an different Week 2 during Thanksgiving week.  For instance, both models see a trend towards a neutral PNA, but the GEFS are seeing a somewhat +PNA around this period which translates to more of a west coast ridge along NAMER.

 

 

 

 

00z EPS...it has been a problem with the Euro holding to much trough in the west...something I have been noticing all season long, esp now since the waters across the NE PAC are warmer than they were a month ago.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111400/noram/eps_z500_anom_noram_240.png

 

 

 

The differences are even bigger out towards the 27th...

 

 

 

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111400/noram/eps_z500_anom_noram_336.png

 

 

 

Knowing the LRC and where we are in the pattern now, I think the GEFS score a coupe with this battle.  Not only that, but you see what is happening in East Asia as a bonifide long term long wave trough is locking in over the next 2 weeks suggests more trough over the East.

 

 

Longer range models are having a bit of trouble trying to figure out the pattern post Thanksgiving.  The storm system I'm eyeing during the post holiday weekend is showing up nicely over near Japan.  This track near Japan suggests a "cutter" type.

 

 

 

[Tom]

The harmonic 30-day (ish) cycle continues to show up in this years pattern.  How many examples have I shown already?  The next one on the list will be the forthcoming couple of days.  Back on Oct 14th, there was a frontal boundary draped across the central states into the GL's.  On Oct 14th, a weak 1008mb SLP formed in CO and track through C KS/E IA/S WI/N MI.  Again, not every cycle is exactly the same, but a "similar" pattern will evolve.  Check out the 06z NAM run below and notice the similarities.  The mode sees a weak 1008mb SLP near CO and the CF pushing through the general same areas that were effected in mid Oct.

 

Last month, there was a heavy rain event and Flash Flood watches for E IA/N IL/ SW MI as well as a Tornado Watch for E KS.  We will not nearly have the same intensity this go around, but it is illustrating a very similar "track".  For the next cycle, mid December, this may be a larger scale system.

 

 

[jaster220]

Interesting stat for Chicago through the first 13 days:

 

 

 

Two things on this..

 

Were there any NOAA maps that showed Chicago below normal for this (or any) period?

 

Over at Amwx, they fire up a thread every time it appears there will be a stretch of above normal temps, but NADA for a below normal (top 10 even) cold period which has been much more rare in this era of overall global warmth. And I'm not saying I want it cold every month all the time, but the bias is very obvious there. 

[Tom]

Two things on this..

 

Were there any NOAA maps that showed Chicago below normal for this (or any) period?

 

Over at Amwx, they fire up a thread every time it appears there will be a stretch of above normal temps, but NADA for a below normal (top 10 even) cold period which has been much more rare in this era of overall global warmth. And I'm not saying I want it cold every month all the time, but the bias is very obvious there. 

Absolutely not!  I think they sorta had the north much BN at one point but that's about it if I recall correctly.  I'm telling ya, we are seeing the models behave similarly as they did back in '13/'14 when they were missing the cold in the extended.

[jaster220]

I wish I didn't live in a bachelor pad and I actually had a driveway to shovel. That'd at least motivate me to work out every time it snowed.

 

THIS!  I love having snow at my property, and consider it a great excuse to get outside despite the conditions and get a bit of a workout moving the snowfall. When I was "baching it" for six yrs between marriages and lived in apt's I really missed the interaction. Clearing my car off in the parking lot wasn't the same after having my own place for 16 yrs. Now, I live in the city and still do the traditional shoveling by hand in Marshall. I had a twin-stage dual-auger blower in Traverse City up north ofc cuz after the first (mild) winter it was obvious nobody up there lives by shovel alone!    But downstate MI is not that bad, tho we've had these record winters (that seem to follow me around wherever I move) and I'm not so young anymore. The 12+ storms have been a lot of work, so sometimes when my neighbor hits my front walkway with his blower, I'm thankful for that tbh. 

[jaster220]

The harmonic 30-day (ish) cycle continues to show up in this years pattern.  How many examples have I shown already?  The next one on the list will be the forthcoming couple of days.  Back on Oct 14th, there was a frontal boundary draped across the central states into the GL's.  On Oct 14th, a weak 1008mb SLP formed in CO and track through C KS/E IA/S WI/N MI.  Again, not every cycle is exactly the same, but a "similar" pattern will evolve.  Check out the 06z NAM run below and notice the similarities.  The model sees a weak 1008mb SLP near CO and the CF pushing through the general same areas that were effected in mid Oct.

 

Last month, there was a heavy rain event and Flash Flood watches for E IA/N IL/ SW MI as well as a Tornado Watch for E KS.  We will not nearly have the same intensity this go around, but it is illustrating a very similar "track".  For the next cycle, mid December, this may be a larger scale system.

 

Nice post on the LRC cycling thru. I've been marking my calendar with dates and general system strength. The months are not all (30) days ofc, so that alone will move dates a bit, but the active cycling continues and should really make for a lot of wx to track going forward. 

[Tom]

Nice post on the LRC cycling thru. I've been marking my calendar with dates and general system strength. The months are not all (30) days ofc, so that alone will move dates a bit, but the active cycling continues and should really make for a lot of wx to track going forward. 

True, in general, it's about around that 30-day period +/- a day or two given the calendar day in a month.  I find that you will arguably consider this a valuable tool.

[jaster220]

k, who stole my warm-up this week??? Talk about "cool is the rule" in this regime. These have continued downward over the last 5 days. Now I may see a(nother) 1 day spike above normal Saturday before the next slug of cold moves back in. Never remember needing the furnace every day this early, at least since moving out of the Northland in '97

 

 

[Tom]

It's probably not a surprise to all of you on here, but I'm a big fan of winter weather (all types of wx for that matter).  On the topic of winter wx and Snow, I'm 35 yrs old and enjoy every aspect of it.  Whether it's -SN or +SN, wind-driven snow, lake effect snow or even the calm, delightfully falling snow from the sky....ok, you get the picture. The past 2 winters have been hard to take as a fan of wintry weather.  Nature tends to balance itself out and I'm more optimistic about this winter than I have been since I began tracking, model watching, analyzing patterns, etc.  With that being said, I'm looking forward to a bountiful season of tracking winter storms and cold.  Enjoy the ride!

[Niko]

Sunny, beautiful, crisp mid November day outside w temps @ 34F.

[Minny_Weather]

k, who stole my warm-up this week??? Talk about "cool is the rule" in this regime. These have continued downward over the last 5 days. Now I may see a(nother) 1 day spike above normal Saturday before the next slug of cold moves back in. Never remember needing the furnace every day this early, at least since moving out of the Northland in '97

 

20171114 KRMY 5-day forecast.JPG

We did. Highs in the 60s today and Friday here. 

[jaster220]

Sunny, beautiful, crisp mid November day outside w temps @ 34F.

 

Yes it is! Classic late autumn morn. Marshall hit 26º this morning - colder than I expected tbh. 

[Niko]

Yes it is! Classic late autumn morn. Marshall hit 26º this morning - colder than I expected tbh. 

Same here...28F this morning w ton of frost outside.

[Tom]

Interestingly, 77-78 was not nearly as snowy in SMI as 13-14, unless you lived close enough to Lk Michigan to get all the NW flow LES events. Ofc, the MOAB's made that winter for the rest of the non-LES belt areas what it is known for, but the other storms were shared around the eastern CONUS during that cold season. 13-14 was an extremely focused storm track/gradient (like a cold vs of 07-08) that favored areas further east in SMI. I'm seeing a combo of those two seasons as a real possibility, with similar cold regime, the frequent snows of 13-14, plus the potential of a huge hit like this region has not seen in 40 yrs. 

Speaking of huge hits, just a few days ago, models were not nearly as aggressive with this system later today into tomorrow.  12z NAM trending towards a neg tilted trough for the N GL's region.  Nice trowel type feature.  Last month, Gale Warnings were issued for the LM and Lake Superior.  Prob trending that way!

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

I think anywhere from where I'm at, to the north or east has a great chance of seeing some fun for Thanksgiving. The week after (29th timeframe) looks likely at this point to be rather wintry as well.

[westMJim]

Well we are almost half way thru November 2017 and at this time the mean temperature at Grand Rapids is 37.9° (-5.6°) at this time it looks like November will be the first below average month since August and has a good chance of being the coldest compared to average this year and is in the running for the coldest compared to average since February 2015. 

Getting some peaks of sun here (rare in November) with a temperature of 39°

[Minny_Weather]

e11 of the GEFS is deranged. Has us with almost 18" at the end of the period.