November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Minny_Weather]

OAX is ignoring snow chances worse than my ex-girlfriend ignored my texts. It's almost as if the Euro is the only model they ever look at, I swear.

 

Friday Night

Rain, mainly after midnight. Low around 38. North wind 5 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

[Doppler_Dustin]

Looks like a pretty boring Thanksgiving week to start.  All the models seem to agree that the midweek storm will just be a glancing blow with no real precip or cold here in southern MN.  Hopefully something will develop in the period of the 24th-26th!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

NAM gives omaha 3 inches of snow lol 4km nam 1 inches. GFS also came a tad colder.

 

[Stormgeek]

Currently seem to be sitting here in the holding pattern. Temperatures are hovering right at freezing most days; I did see a rogue 46 in there somewhere too. Pretty boring for now, can't wait to have something to track, preferably snow (just not on Thanksgiving)!

[Doppler_Dustin]

NAM gives omaha 3 inches of snow lol 4km nam 1 inches. GFS also came a tad colder.

 

Could be a narrow band of some decent snow.  Problem is temperatures look to be in the mid 30's.  Will be interesting to watch!

[NEJeremy]

I think I would be a little cautious too with the snow in eastern Nebraska. I think it would be a pretty marginal event with no real issues especially in the bigger metro areas. They did mention a possible mix or brief changeover in NE Nebraska.

I looked at soundings in eastern Nebraska on the GFS and attached one from a spot where the GFS is showing snow falling and it looks like even at decent clip. However, when you look at the sounding, it shows a surface temp of 40 degrees. You do get to zero at around 900mb which isn't too high above the ground, but the profile isn't saturated below 700 mb either. Normally you would want a better profile to get snow down to the surface that is that much above freezing.

The NAM is running about 6-8 degrees colder everywhere and sounding were completely saturated, so pretty large difference there.

It'll be interesting to see what happens late tomorrow night/early saturday morning

[Minny_Weather]

I think I would be a little cautious too with the snow in eastern Nebraska. I think it would be a pretty marginal event with no real issues especially in the bigger metro areas. They did mention a possible mix or brief changeover in NE Nebraska.

I looked at soundings in eastern Nebraska on the GFS and attached one from a spot where the GFS is showing snow falling and it looks like even at decent clip. However, when you look at the sounding, it shows a surface temp of 40 degrees. You do get to zero at around 900mb which isn't too high above the ground, but the profile isn't saturated below 700 mb either. Normally you would want a better profile to get snow down to the surface that is that much above freezing.

The NAM is running about 6-8 degrees colder everywhere and sounding were completely saturated, so pretty large difference there.

It'll be interesting to see what happens late tomorrow night/early saturday morning

GFS is really, really iffy at this range. Keep that in mind. It has a major warm bias once it gets closer, it's been that way this whole season. With a North wind, I can see temperatures getting down to accumulating snow range.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

With the GFS being mentioned, still has a storm after Thanksgiving but its much weaker, further south and the northern stream dominates more so ...so its never really gets it act together up here like the CMC and EURO did. 

[jaster220]

NAM gives omaha 3 inches of snow lol 4km nam 1 inches. GFS also came a tad colder.

 

I can't wait until winter when that whole blob of green is snow coming my way!

[GDR]

Cmc with a nice run

[Niko]

Currently at 40F under cloudy skies.

[Niko]

The problem is the models don't know which Way is up and down and especially warm and cold which makes it quite annoying at this current time.

I agree. Meanwhile such high expectations going on by just one model can really disappoint.

[Niko]

Looks like my colder temps that were forecasted for next week are getting warmer and warmer. Temps might hit 50F on Wednesday. Looks like it wont be as cold as projected. Very quiet week also. I guess that's good news for travelers.

[GDR]

Is the co low still showing up?

[Minny_Weather]

Is the co low still showing up?

We'll see about that in a few minutes.

[Niko]

Looks like rain changing to snow Sat nite, but no biggie.

[Niko]

I can't wait until winter when that whole blob of green is snow coming my way!

Something we haven't seen in 2 years around here.

[Minny_Weather]

GFS whiffs on the CO low. Could be interesting up in NMI Thanksgiving weekend with a storm system in Canada. Let's see what Euro says.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

I gotta say the ecmwf, canadian has gotten its a$$ beat all year by the GFS. It's still a ways away but the GFS is continually insisting the northern stream wins out for the storm potential after Thanksgiving. GFS barely has a system and now the canadian model is going the same route.

[Minny_Weather]

I gotta say the ecmwf, canadian has gotten its a$$ beat all year by the GFS. It's still a ways away but the GFS is continually insisting the northern stream wins out for the storm potential after Thanksgiving. GFS barely has a system and now the canadian model is going the same route.

I'll go ahead and argue and say that they've all sucked about equally this year. In the mid to long range, the ensembles have been the best, especially GEFS. In the shorter range, the NAMily and the HRRR have all been not horrendous, with the RGEM also being pretty good.

[Niko]

Per NOAA:

Upper ridging to develop on Monday into Tuesday morning and keep
conditions calm for the early part of the week. Southerly flow will
return and help temperatures rebound back into the low to mid 40s. A
weak system passing over northern Ontario Tuesday will bring a
chance for showers or a light wintry mix over the Thumb Tuesday
evening as a cold front clears the area, though the majority of
forcing looks to stay to the north. Gusty winds will be ushered in
with this front on Tuesday as well. Surface high pressure and subtle
upper ridging then return and will result in calm and quiet weather
for Thanksgiving, although temps will be chilly with highs only
reaching the mid 30s both Wednesday and Thursday.

[Niko]

My local weatherman just announced that temps could reach upper 40s to possibly near 50F next week b4 turning colder by midweek. Conditions remain dry and calm also. No storm!!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

The latest EURO took out the after Thanksgiving "Storm" completely as well. So make that all of the models that has taken it out with the exception being the almighty GFS which never really had it to begin with.

[Tom]

Overnight 00z EPS/00z GEFS still showing the potential for next weekends storm which sets the stage for LRC cycle 2 to begin.  For the moment, those are my initial thoughts.  In the snow dept, both GEFS/EPS staying consistent that during Week 2 it will be on the rise for practically everyone on here except for maybe our members in the deep south.  

 

Interestingly, haven't we seen this before???  00z GEFS showing a strikingly similar Strat warming event across N C.A which happened similarly in late Oct.  Another example of the cycling harmonic pattern.  Now lets see it unfold.  This would entail a somewhat PV displacement to end the month.

[Tom]

00z EPS, yet again, trending colder Week 2....seeing more blocking and trending away from a +EPO beyond Day 5 which has been a known bias given the SST pattern in the N PAC.

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

A little off topic but pivotalweather made a few changes recently. You can now see maps from WPC, CPC and NWS hazard maps all in one place. It’s a nice one-stop shop for those maps.

[Minny_Weather]

A little off topic but pivotalweather made a few changes recently. You can now see maps from WPC, CPC and NWS hazard maps all in one place. It’s a nice one-stop shop for those maps.

Wow I need to check that out. I use COD or weatherbell right now because Pivotal's interface isn't great, but having all those maps there is good for sure.

[jaster220]

A little off topic but pivotalweather made a few changes recently. You can now see maps from WPC, CPC and NWS hazard maps all in one place. It’s a nice one-stop shop for those maps.

 

Thx for this info, had not been using Pivotal, but sounds like I should be now..

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and nippy w temps near 34F. Rain on the way!

[OKwx2k4]

00z EPS, yet again, trending colder Week 2....seeing more blocking and trending away from a +EPO beyond Day 5 which has been a known bias given the SST pattern in the N PAC.

 

 

Great trend. I'd continue to expect to see cooler runs for a few days as the models get settled back in. Should be starting to see some retrogression showing up in the modelling down the road as well as blocking flexes it's muscles a bit better.

[Niko]

Trees are 90% bare in my area. A few are too stubborn to let loose still.

[Niko]

Next chance of precip in my area after Saturdays rainfall is on Dec1st. So, a long duration of dry weather to follow. Temps seasonably chilly.

[NEJeremy]

Still a lot of time for changes, but the models so far are saying what cold and snow for Thanksgiving weekend? Here in Nebraska it looks like 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday and cooling a bit over the weekend. If that's the case, than where's the good pattern of storms out of the southwest that was supposed to switch around the 20th? Is the LRC even longer than 45-50 days? We last had our good precip and storm systems here the 1st through the 10th of October and since then basically nothing as we've only had 2 days of precip(.40" total) since 10/10 in Omaha!

[Tom]

Still a lot of time for changes, but the models so far are saying what cold and snow for Thanksgiving weekend? Here in Nebraska it looks like 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday and cooling a bit over the weekend. If that's the case, than where's the good pattern of storms out of the southwest that was supposed to switch around the 20th? Is the LRC even longer than 45-50 days? We last had our good precip and storm systems here the 1st through the 10th of October and since then basically nothing as we've only had 2 days of precip(.40" total) since 10/10 in Omaha!

Gary Lezak won't know exactly till sometime in mid December to be 100% certain.  Now, you can see harmonic mini cycles as I have pointed out many times on here but the general cycle length has yet TBD.  There will be systems coming out of the SW and post Thanksgiving is the timeline right now.  In fact, 00z EPS showing a big trough coming out of the SW around the last days of November.

[Niko]

Still a lot of time for changes, but the models so far are saying what cold and snow for Thanksgiving weekend? Here in Nebraska it looks like 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday and cooling a bit over the weekend. If that's the case, than where's the good pattern of storms out of the southwest that was supposed to switch around the 20th? Is the LRC even longer than 45-50 days? We last had our good precip and storm systems here the 1st through the 10th of October and since then basically nothing as we've only had 2 days of precip(.40" total) since 10/10 in Omaha!

Exactly...that is what I am asking myself as well.  

[westMJim]

Believe it or not getting some peaks of the sun here right now, The temperature is now at 38° 

[jaster220]

Believe it or not getting some peaks of the sun here right now, The temperature is now at 38° 

 

Was 29º when I headed out this early morning in Marshall. Actually was AOB freezing from about 7:30 last evening until this morning - about 12 hrs. Slowly but surely, winter's creeping up on us, eh? Question is, when does it want to finally "pounce"?

[Tom]

Went out for a walk earlier this morning and it was a bit breezy, almost cold with the WC and mid 30's temp.  Leaves are blowing around the entire neighborhood.  Many folks are probably waiting till the weekend storm system to knock off more leaves and save the clean up for another better day.  Surprisingly, I saw a couple houses already with some Christmas lights/decor.  I did manage to see the sun peak through before the cloud deck rolled on in.  After yesterday's stubborn clouds, and another BN day (38F), any sunshine makes it that much better.

[westMJim]

It is now cloudy here now 

 

I have brought this up before but so far the highest temperature here in Grand Rapids so far this November is 53° if this holds for the rest of the month this would tie 1907 for the coldest maximum for the month of November here at Grand Rapids. But also of interest is that there have only been 9 past November’s (in recorded history going back to 1893) where the temperature has not reached 60° or better. Of the past 9 November’s that did not reach 60° or better all of them have had more snow fall then this one has had so far. So far this November here in Grand Rapids the highest temperature has been only 53° the mean for the month is now at 38.2° (-4.7°) and there has only been 0.2” of snow fall. Here is a list of past November’s where the maximum did not reach 60° of better and that November’s highest recorded temperature, snow fall and the winters total snow fall. also, if the winter was El Nino or La Nina if known.

 

• 1997/98            56°    11.3"       59.8”  Strong El Nino
• 1976/77            55°     8.5"       70.8”  weak El Nino
• 1969/70             57°     14.3"     84.6”  weak El Nino
• 1967/68             57°     11.0"     55.1”  neutral
• 1925/26             57°      8.4"      89.5”
• 1921/22             59°      9.7"     44.1”
• 1920/21             55°       6.5"”    35.6”
• 1919/20             58°       3.5"    56.9”
• 1907/08             53°       0.0      43.7”

 At this time GRR is still in play to tie that 53° for the lowest maximum for November. While not your typical analog it is none the less something to think about as we head into the winter season.

[Tom]

The NWS from Chicago did some research and found that colder than normal Novembers during La Nina's tend to produce BN temps for the Winter season. They also said this leads towards AN snowfall.  The way we are trending this season, I like the chances for a large area of our sub forum to have a lot to look forward to this cold season.