Kayla Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 After Christmas. End of Hanukkah. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 I'm thinking somewhere around the 20th - 23rd.I sooo hope you’re right!!!! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Christmas Eve at sunset. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 I'm thinking somewhere around the 20th - 23rd.New Years Eve. Arctic front moves through SEA @ 5:57pm on December 31st, rain changes to snow by 11:28pm as temperatures plunge from 56*F to 29*F over 6hrs. Midnight high of 29*F, falling to 17*F by 10AM on January 1st while snow continues to fall. Snow ends by 4pm, skies clear overnight and temps plummet to 4*F by sunrise the next day. Snowfall total @ SeaTac is 11.7". Next snowstorm is only three days away..00z ECMWF is a storm king repeat. Jim and Rob are throwing blizzard parties. Tim is downplaying. Dewey is above the fray. 5 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 New Years Eve. Arctic front moves through SEA @ 5:57pm on December 31st, rain changes to snow by 11:28pm as temperatures plunge from 56*F to 29*F over 6hrs. Midnight high of 29*F, falling to 17*F by 10AM on January 1st while snow continues to fall. Snow ends by 4pm, skies clear overnight and temps plummet to 4*F by sunrise the next day.I have never seen anything that extreme here ever. So I approve and ... I hope you’re sooo right!! Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 New Years Eve. Arctic front moves through SEA @ 5:57pm on December 31st, rain changes to snow by 11:28pm as temperatures plunge from 56*F to 29*F over 6hrs. Midnight high of 29*F, falling to 17*F by 10AM on January 1st while snow continues to fall. Snow ends by 4pm, skies clear overnight and temps plummet to 4*F by sunrise the next day.Sounds like -30c to me! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 New Years Eve. Arctic front moves through SEA @ 5:57pm on December 31st, rain changes to snow by 11:28pm as temperatures plunge from 56*F to 29*F over 6hrs. Midnight high of 29*F, falling to 17*F by 10AM on January 1st while snow continues to fall. Snow ends by 4pm, skies clear overnight and temps plummet to 4*F by sunrise the next day. Snowfall total @ SeaTac is 11.7". Next snowstorm is only three days away..00z ECMWF is a storm king repeat. Jim and Rob are throwing blizzard parties. Tim is downplaying. Dewey is above the fray.Most believable winter forecast I’ve heard yet! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 We're about to embark on an incredible +PNA run. Anything above 300 is very high, and we're forecast to see several days near 400 or higher. Here are -ENSO/neutral years that had major +PNA for at least a week in the Nov 25 - Dec 15 period, with the peak daily number. 1949 (+395 on 11/26)1962 (+495 on 12/11)1964 (+291 on 12/7)1974 (+307 on 12/2)1981 (+220 on 12/12)1985 (+234 on 12/5)1988 (+374 on 12/4)1989 (+476 on 12/3)1995 (+309 on 12/11)2000 (+212 on 12/1)2008 (+300 on 11/27) The only ones that approached or surpassed the values we're expected to see are 1949, 1962, 1988, and 1989. As you can see from the image above, we're also expected to have -NAO dominate over the next 10 days or so, though not as strong as the +PNA. The years that saw NAO of at least -150 during their +PNA periods: 1949, 1962, 1981, 1989, 1995, and 2008. 1962 and 1989 are easily the best overall pattern matches to what we're seeing, in my opinion, followed by 1995 and 1981. Those are my top 4 analogs going forward, and a common theme is clear: blocky winters that favored cold in the East early, but cold shifting more west (including the PNW) later on. 4 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 We're about to embark on an incredible +PNA run. Anything above 300 is very high, and we're forecast to see several days near 400 or higher. 4indices.png Here are -ENSO/neutral years that had major +PNA for at least a week in the Nov 25 - Dec 15 period, with the peak daily number. 1949 (+395 on 11/26)1962 (+495 on 12/11)1964 (+291 on 12/7)1974 (+307 on 12/2)1981 (+220 on 12/12)1985 (+234 on 12/5)1988 (+374 on 12/4)1989 (+476 on 12/3)1995 (+309 on 12/11)2000 (+212 on 12/1)2008 (+300 on 11/27) The only ones that approached or surpassed the values we're expected to see are 1949, 1962, 1988, and 1989. As you can see from the image above, we're also expected to have -NAO dominate over the next 10 days or so, though not as strong as the +PNA. The years that saw NAO of at least -150 during their +PNA periods: 1949, 1962, 1981, 1989, 1995, and 2008. 1962 and 1989 are easily the best overall pattern matches to what we're seeing, in my opinion, followed by 1995 and 1981. Those are my top 4 analogs going forward, and a common theme is clear: blocky winters that favored cold in the East early, but cold shifting more west (including the PNW) later on.This is a great post! Several of those years were huge Winters for us! Jan 1950! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 We're about to embark on an incredible +PNA run. Anything above 300 is very high, and we're forecast to see several days near 400 or higher. 4indices.png Here are -ENSO/neutral years that had major +PNA for at least a week in the Nov 25 - Dec 15 period, with the peak daily number. 1949 (+395 on 11/26)1962 (+495 on 12/11)1964 (+291 on 12/7)1974 (+307 on 12/2)1981 (+220 on 12/12)1985 (+234 on 12/5)1988 (+374 on 12/4)1989 (+476 on 12/3)1995 (+309 on 12/11)2000 (+212 on 12/1)2008 (+300 on 11/27) The only ones that approached or surpassed the values we're expected to see are 1949, 1962, 1988, and 1989. As you can see from the image above, we're also expected to have -NAO dominate over the next 10 days or so, though not as strong as the +PNA. The years that saw NAO of at least -150 during their +PNA periods: 1949, 1962, 1981, 1989, 1995, and 2008. 1962 and 1989 are easily the best overall pattern matches to what we're seeing, in my opinion, followed by 1995 and 1981. Those are my top 4 analogs going forward, and a common theme is clear: blocky winters that favored cold in the East early, but cold shifting more west (including the PNW) later on.I approve of 2008. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Feels like something huge could be brewing! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 This is a great post! Several of those years were huge Winters for us! Jan 1950! Well...in 1949 the PNA crashed on 12/9 (and you'll notice it also peaked earlier on 11/26) and basically remained tanked until early February. Looks unlikely we'll see a pattern shift this year that soon. But you never know! Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 We're about to embark on an incredible +PNA run. Anything above 300 is very high, and we're forecast to see several days near 400 or higher. 4indices.png Here are -ENSO/neutral years that had major +PNA for at least a week in the Nov 25 - Dec 15 period, with the peak daily number. 1949 (+395 on 11/26)1962 (+495 on 12/11)1964 (+291 on 12/7)1974 (+307 on 12/2)1981 (+220 on 12/12)1985 (+234 on 12/5)1988 (+374 on 12/4)1989 (+476 on 12/3)1995 (+309 on 12/11)2000 (+212 on 12/1)2008 (+300 on 11/27) The only ones that approached or surpassed the values we're expected to see are 1949, 1962, 1988, and 1989. As you can see from the image above, we're also expected to have -NAO dominate over the next 10 days or so, though not as strong as the +PNA. The years that saw NAO of at least -150 during their +PNA periods: 1949, 1962, 1981, 1989, 1995, and 2008. 1962 and 1989 are easily the best overall pattern matches to what we're seeing, in my opinion, followed by 1995 and 1981. Those are my top 4 analogs going forward, and a common theme is clear: blocky winters that favored cold in the East early, but cold shifting more west (including the PNW) later on. A good number of those winters featured at least one really cold month...many with significant snowfall also. Nature loves to do complete reversals. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Should be 75 degrees at the ski resorts under that ridge The ones that aren't passes perhaps. The passes usually have a shallow layer of cold air flowing in from Central WA. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Worth noting that 1962, 1981, 1989, and 1995 all saw -PNA dominate for most of January into February. That includes 1989-90, which even though it had a very -PNA January, didn't really get cold until February when the EPO finally went negative. But given where we're at with solar and the October/November patterns, I think odds are much more in favor of getting cold in January, possibly late December. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 A good number of those winters featured at least one really cold month...many with significant snowfall also. Nature loves to do complete reversals. Indeed. You've mentioned many times how extremes beget extremes, and that's certainly evident when looking at these numbers. Years like 2011, 2007, 2000, 1999, 1975, 1974, etc just didn't see the same highly amplified patterns leading up to winter like we're seeing this year. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Should be 75 degrees at the ski resorts under that ridgeTim’s warming hut will be roasting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Keep an eye on the teleconnections indices forecast, primarily the PNA, EPO and look for them to turn negative 16th - 20th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 00z ECMWF Day 5http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017113000/120/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Indeed. You've mentioned many times how extremes beget extremes, and that's certainly evident when looking at these numbers. Years like 2011, 2007, 2000, 1999, 1975, 1974, etc just didn't see the same highly amplified patterns leading up to winter like we're seeing this year. Eh, November/December 2000 was pretty amplified. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Eh, November/December 2000 was pretty amplified.2000-01 is a sticky wicket. Had a lot of the trappings of what could have been the lead up to a great winter with a cold, blocky fall, but then it just sort of fell apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Ridge nearing date line is more amplified than previous runs. For what it's worth, which is probably a nickel, perhaps a dime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Tim’s warming hut will be roasting.TT will post pictures of a frigid Duluth and skiing on 5 inches of ice crust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 6http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017113000/144/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 7http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017113000/168/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Ridge nearing date line is more amplified than previous runs. For what it's worth, which is probably a nickel, perhaps a dime.I’ll give you a penny for your thoughts Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Can't wait for days 8, 9, 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 30, 2017 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Can't wait for days 8, 9, 10We should skip day 9 because 7 8 9. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Can't wait for days 8, 9, 10Ridge, ridgier, ridgyist Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 8http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017113000/192/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 9http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017113000/216/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Eh, November/December 2000 was pretty amplified. True, of that bunch 2000 was the most blocky/amplified. But it still wasn't quite on 2017's level. The upcoming +PNA will almost certainly be greater than any +PNA episode that fall, and the -EPO block we saw in late Oct/early Nov easily beats anything seen fall 2000. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 2000-01 is a sticky wicket. Had a lot of the trappings of what could have been the lead up to a great winter with a cold, blocky fall, but then it just sort of fell apart. I thought 2000 was one of the better analogs back in October, but given how the pattern has evolved since then, I don't see it as a leading analog now. Couldn't have had a much more dissimilar November nationally. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 2000-01 is a sticky wicket. Had a lot of the trappings of what could have been the lead up to a great winter with a cold, blocky fall, but then it just sort of fell apart. Yeah, things set up too far east early on and then that midwinter was a huge disappointment where basically nothing happened weatherwise. A rare combo of persistently dry weather and warm anomalies in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Day 10 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017113000/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Ridge actually weakens/de-amplifies quite a bit from day 8-10 on this run. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Yeah, things set up too far east early on and then that midwinter was a huge disappointment where basically nothing happened weatherwise. A rare combo of persistently dry weather and warm anomalies in January.A certain 25 year old budding lawyer was enjoying some life changing cold anomalies in Omak that winter, if I recall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 Ridge actually weakens/de-amplifies quite a bit from day 8-10 on this run. Yeah, seems to be a real outlier when compared to EPS, CMCE, GEFS. 6z GFS in 2 hours 22 minutes! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 That's a low over the Aleutians!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2017 Report Share Posted November 30, 2017 A certain 25 year old budding lawyer was enjoying some life changing cold anomalies in Omak that winter, if I recall.December was pretty cold. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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