November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Geos]

Definitely looks cold enough Sunday night on the EURO to get Tim his first freeze. Frosty throughout the region. Monday night even colder. Looks like highs struggle to reach 40 except near the water. 

 

Rest of the week through Friday - definitely has some chillier nights.

[Phil]

The ridge just rebuilds and doesn't budge once again on the 12z. I'm having a really hard time believing that solution in a Niña. More likely that we see things breakdown in the 8-10 day period with the NPAC flow breaking through. I'd love to be wrong though.

Eh, I think in this case it's actually aided by the Niña since convection can focus better over the IPWP when the background state favors it.

 

In a Niño you can see more EPAC/WHEM forcing which does extend the jet. Last winter we saw plenty of jet extensions with forcing not bound to the EHEM by that pathetic excuse for a Niña.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yes, keep that icky cold away. We all know that moisture is the hardest ingredient to come by around here! It will be cold enough for snow regardless.

The inversion should satisfy your cold needs. Enjoy! And yes moisture is really tough to come by in that setup up here...but not impossible... that being said it is Lala land and is about as meaningless as the seriousness of that post. Tag ur it!

[Phil]

There's no amount of tilting that would be enough to save us with the block in that position. Better odds if it were undercut and rephrased over the Central Pacific.

Or continue the long period retrogression over the next month?

 

You guys just refuse to buy into this idea, for some reason.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Or continue the long period retrogression over the next month?

 

You guys just refuse to buy into this idea, for some reason.

Wishful thinking.

[Phil]

I was just gonna say...that's the first semi-legit retrograde setup I've seen. Rising heights over the Aleutians, flattening +PNA ridge...

The PNA system is actually stronger on the 12z Euro compared to the 00z Euro.

 

The type of retrogression we're looking at here is something more prolonged and driven by dynamics in East-Asia.

[wx_statman]

My hamster ate its young when I was around that age... I was done with hamsters at that point.     It was a traumatic day!  

 

I accidentally killed my hamster when I closed the door and smashed it against the door frame. Traumatizing!

[Front Ranger]

Let's hope the winter dreams of this forum fare better than our hamsters!

[Jesse]

I accidentally killed my hamster when I closed the door and smashed it against the door frame. Traumatizing!

My brother and mom accidentally did the same thing when I was at school. 4th grade I think. That was awful.

[Timmy]

My brother and mom accidentally did the same thing when I was at school. 4th grade I think. That was awful.

I used to feel bad for my hamster having to stay in a cage so I would build a fort for him that “he couldn’t get out of” on the floor. He was never there when I would wake up in the morning.

[wx_statman]

My brother and mom accidentally did the same thing when I was at school. 4th grade I think. That was awful.

 

Let's hope the winter dreams of this forum fare better than our hamsters!

 

I dedicate this winter to all the dearly departed hamsters. 

[Deweydog]

I accidentally killed my hamster when I closed the door and smashed it against the door frame. Traumatizing!

A cousin of mine "accidentally" killed his sister's hamster by stomping on it with his bare foot. He wasn't right in the head.

[Deweydog]

I dedicate this winter to all the dearly departed hamsters.

Let's hope some Christmas hamsters freeze to death in uninsulated garages this January!

[Jesse]

Who knew that Tim’s freeze resistant roses would spark such a lively hamster discussion.

[Deweydog]

Who knew that Tim’s freeze resistant roses would spark such a lively hamster discussion.

If you had Flatiron's list of analogs you would have known months ago.

[Jesse]

If you had Flatiron's list of analogs you would have known months ago.

You’re on your A game this morning.

[Geos]

Let's hope some Christmas hamsters freeze to death in uninsulated garages this January!

 

I don't know, most hamsters have a pretty good coat of fur. 

I had hamsters too, and I had fairly good luck with them. 

 

Let's go back on topic now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Richard Gere approves of this hamster talk

[Deweydog]

I don't know, most hamsters have a pretty good coat of fur.

I had hamsters too, and I had fairly good luck with them.

 

Let's go back on topic now.

The distinct threat speaks to just how extreme this January may be.

[Geos]

Snowing all the way down to Cle Elum now.

 

[TT-SEA]

Who knew that Tim’s freeze resistant roses would spark such a lively hamster discussion.

They are not freeze resistant. They will go dormant when it actually freezes!

[Geos]

The distinct threat speaks to just how extreme this January may be.

 

Well hopefully no one keeps their hamsters in the garage. I hope it's cold enough to freeze some of the rodents that are around. i.e. Rats, mice.

[Front Ranger]

If you had Flatiron's list of analogs you would have known months ago.

 

I don't choose the analogs, they choose me.

[wx_statman]

A cousin of mine "accidentally" killed his sister's hamster by stomping on it with his bare foot. He wasn't right in the head.

 

No kidding. Red flag. 

 

Mine really was accidental. 

[Front Ranger]

Richard Gere approves of this hamster talk

 

That rumor (gerbil, actually) emerged shortly after Pretty Woman came out. That movie was released in 1990. 

 

ANAL LOG???

[TT-SEA]

Snowing all the way down to Cle Elum now.

 

 

I am surprised that its not snowing more at Cle Elum.  

[Deweydog]

I don't choose the analogs, they choose me.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6pLRkv_YZRc

[Gradient Keeper]

Much more wimpy block on the 12Z ECMWF at day 10... this looks somewhat promising to me.

 

 

 

I was just gonna say...that's the first semi-legit retrograde setup I've seen. Rising heights over the Aleutians, flattening +PNA ridge...

Yeah, definitely like where this run is going day 9-10. A fairly sharp, amplified ridge over the Aleutians, downstream trough and system over northwest territories, northern BC/AB weakens and flattens ridge over us and there ya go. 18z GFS in 33 minutes!

[umadbro]

That greenland block is holding strong though. As long as that's there. Nothing is going to happen

[jakeinthevalley]

Richard Gere approves of this hamster talk

I believe it was a gerbil. Don't ask me how I know

[Gradient Keeper]

I believe it was a gerbil. Don't ask me how I know

LOL

[Timmy]

I believe it was a gerbil. Don't ask me how I know

i think the only people that know the difference between a hamster and a gerbal are the ones who use them like Richard did.

[MossMan]

Glad my hamster simply died of old age. Though I do remember he died when there was snow on the ground in late 1992 since I had to get though some hard cold ground to bury him. 

[Phil]

OT, but I think we just had another earthquake in DC.

 

Whatever it was, it rattled the windows and dishes. Didn't feel nearly as bad as 2011 though.

[Jbolin]

OT, but I think we just had another earthquake in DC.

 

Whatever it was, it rattled the windows and dishes. Didn't feel nearly as bad as 2011 though.

Conspiracy theorist

[Phil]

Yep, M4.4 centered in Dover, DE. I'm kinda surprised we felt it over here, west of the Fall Line. Seems kind of weak/far away.

[Phil]

Conspiracy theorist

Drawing a blank here.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The JAMA weeklies are out, and we turn colder the week of Dec. 24-31st.  Don't know how cold, but that is the coldest time of year anyway, so it doesn't take much for it to be snow.  Wish I knew how to directly post tweets.

 

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/936170391319355392

[Phil]

The modeling has really trended away from the deep -NAO circulation, and more towards a -EPO dominated blocking regime.

 

Im hindsight, it makes sense, given the tendency for the NAO and PNA to constructively resonate. Also, the +PNA is more sustainable under -EPO/+WPO that +EPO/-WPO.

[Phil]

The JAMA weeklies are out, and we turn colder the week of Dec. 24-31st. Don't know how cold, but that is the coldest time of year anyway, so it doesn't take much for it to be snow. Wish I knew how to directly post tweets.

 

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/936170391319355392

Looks like a retrogression to me. #NotTooAmplified