November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[MossMan]

It's an everything BUT weather forum when the PNA is +2 or above.

Actually I think that is an excellent idea! Weather in this area is downright boring when the PNA is positive. Sports!!

[TT-SEA]

Wrong!!! Tim does!

 

 

I assume everyone up there is a Whitecaps fan... one of the Sounders rivals.   The other is of course is the Timbers.    

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice improvements on 00z GEFS

[Phil]

FWIW, one member of the EPS weeklies brings -40C 850mb temperatures over Northern WA during the first week of Jan.

 

Lmao. That would be something.

[stuffradio]

FWIW, one member of the EPS weeklies brings -40C 850mb temperatures over Northern WA during the first week of Jan.

 

Lmao. That would be something.

Wake me up when Christmas begins.

[The Swamp]

I just want it to be cold and foggy with a nice inversion.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Jaw dropping stuff right there.  It goes against everything that we were always told.  I would even go so far as to say the configuration with the -NAO looks more favorable for major snow events here.

 

This would make an excellent topic for its own thread.

 

NAO was also slightly negative and west-based in 1949-1959. It looks like a west-based -NAO can help, but it won't mean much if the strongest blocking isn't over the Central Pacific.

 

[seattleweatherguy]

FWIW, one member of the EPS weeklies brings -40C 850mb temperatures over Northern WA during the first week of Jan.

 

Lmao. That would be something.

Best late Christmas gift ever. Is this colder than 2008?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles are not to bad. 

[Deweydog]

Ensembles are not to bad.

To bad or not to bad. That is the question.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF a bit colder through day 4. Would really like to see this run feature the strong block by day 6-7 as the GFS is now consistently doing.

[BLI snowman]

Meteorological winter begins in an hour and a half and it's already been one of the best in a long time.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120100/120/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Columbia Basin cold pool looks pretty D**n cold on 00z GEFS

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120100/024/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE Ensembles still not quite on board with GFS keeping the ridge axis 130 W to just along the Coast.

[Jesse]

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120100/024/500h_anom.na.png

That is day 2.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120100/168/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

That is day 2.

Wow. Yeah it is. What the heck happened there.

Day 6

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120100/144/500h_anom.na.png

[umadbro]

Wrong day..

Jesse pointed that out 3 minutes ago....

 

Instantly makes you an awful person for not knowing that.

[Gradient Keeper]

Lol Well ridge did get shoved inland a tad.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Jesse pointed that out 3 minutes ago....

Instantly makes you an awful person for not knowing that.

I redeemed myself by deleting it... now I am only partially a horrible person.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Lol Well ridge did get shoved inland a tad.

Inland and southward... supressed a bit more — not sure if it means much yet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 block not holding as sturdy as GFS/CMC Op

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120100/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Jesse]

Wow. Yeah it is. What the heck happened there.

Day 6

 

No worries. I was gonna say, wow, pretty amazing crash of the ridge on day 6.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS ensemble has a lot of cold members.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 (double checks)

Yep

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120100/216/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

It's pretty obvious we have entered a new regime.  We'll see how it plays out.  Phil has posted the maps to prove -PNA often occurs in tandem with -NAO.  I always thought -NAO was bad for us also, but I've changed my mind.

 

Eh. It can be a good sign for a blocky atmosphere overall, but I'm not seeing the direct correlations to PNW weather that Phil is, apparently.

[Gradient Keeper]

No worries. I was gonna say, wow, pretty amazing crash of the ridge on day 6.

Yeah no lol....

[Jesse]

The 0z GFS ensemble has a lot of cold members.

Yeah definitely some improvement.

[umadbro]

That Greenland block tho

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 0z GFS ensemble has a lot of cold members.

 

My member shrinks in the cold. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2017120100/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes!

[Phil]

Eh. It can be a good sign for a blocky atmosphere overall, but I'm not seeing the direct correlations to PNW weather that Phil is, apparently.

There is no NAO connection to PNW weather.

 

There is an NAO connection to PNW climate.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, one member of the EPS weeklies brings -40C 850mb temperatures over Northern WA during the first week of Jan.

 

Lmao. That would be something.

 

That would be downright insane.  I would imagine Jan 31, 1893 may have been -30 to -32 or so, but -40?!

[snow_wizard]

Day 10

 

The amount of blocking is unlike anything I've seen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The amount of blocking is unlike anything I've seen.

 

Its all in the wrong spot.

[snow_wizard]

Best late Christmas gift ever. Is this colder than 2008?

 

-40 would probably be the coldest ever here.

[snow_wizard]

Its all in the wrong spot.

 

As we've talked about many times...we always score in blocky La Nina winters.  It's unblocked La Nina winters that flop.