November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

[Dave]

Very heavy frost here.  It got down to at least 27.

[TT-SEA]

SE breeze picking up now ahead of front.   Clouds are thin enough to allow for the sun to filter through as its rising here...

 

[Kayla]

SE breeze picking up now ahead of front.   Clouds are thin enough to allow for the sun to filter through as its rising here...

 

I must say, pics of your property never get old... Are you backed up to national forest land or is that land privately owned?

[TT-SEA]

I must say, pics of your property never get old... Are you backed up to national forest land or is that land privately owned?

 

Our development owns about 600 acres and we are responsible for forest management.    But most of the ridge behind our house is part of the Mountains to Sound Greenway that runs from Issaquah all the way to Ellensburg.   Its meant to protect the wild beauty of the I-90 corridor.   Its protected from development and logging and also unsightly things like billboards.   

 

https://mtsgreenway.org/

[Jesse]

Ifred really needs to create a separate politics thread so we won't have to shift thru political BS crap to get to the good stuff. Maybe he could call it (The Sandbox) or something similar. Anyways it's down to 33F now and dense fog.

There is a separate political thread, and hopefully those posts can get moved there.

[Kayla]

Our development owns about 600 acres and we are responsible for forest management.    But most of the ridge behind our house is part of the Mountains to Sound Greenway that runs from Issaquah all the way to Ellensburg.   Its meant to protect the wild beauty of the I-90 corridor.   Its protected from development and also unsightly things like billboards.   

 

https://mtsgreenway.org/

 

It's gorgeous. Always great to see developments setting aside shared space and publicly owned land. Also one of the many things we love about Montana with all of the public and national forest protected land.

[Jesse]

Or just post in that thread.

I didn’t start the discussion.

[Timmy]

I didn’t start the discussion.

Always gotta finish it though.

 

Great weather here in Columbus Georgia today!

[Jesse]

34 with dense fog this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Low of 30 this morning again. 

 

Looking at the models I hope everyone is ready to TORCH!

[Deweydog]

Foggy here too. Just like our tax code!

[Deweydog]

Low of 30 this morning again.

 

Looking at the models I hope everyone is ready to TORCH!

I want it on the record that Jesse didn't start the torch, he only participated in it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Eugene hit 27 this morning. 

[Jesse]

I want it on the record that Jesse didn't start the torch, he only participated in it.

Man, you really want to keep this one going don’t you?

[Kayla]

Definitely a colder signal emerging by the end of the month now. Could spoil the above average November party above the 45th.

[Jesse]

Definitely a colder signal emerging by the end of the month now. Could spoil the above average November party above the 45th.

I’ve been noticing the same thing. At least out here though, the torch next week is looking like it will probably be our most significant anomaly event of the month, and it doesn't really look to completely go away until next weekend or later. Will probably be enough for the month as a whole to be warmer than average, even if it finishes a little on the cool side.

[Kayla]

I’ve been noticing the same thing. At least out here though, the torch next week is looking like it will probably be our most significant anomaly event of the month, and it doesn't really look to completely go away until next weekend or later. Will probably be enough for the month as a whole to be warmer than average, even if it finishes a little on the cool side.

 

Yeah most likely won't be enough for PDX and areas south. Could be enough to keep OLM and points north and the interior at or below average on the month though.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah most likely won't be enough for PDX and areas south. Could be enough to keep OLM and points north and the interior at or below average on the month though.

Still 3F below here. Will probably end up being close by the end of the month.

[Jesse]

Still 3F below here. Will probably end up being close by the end of the month.

Yeah, you guys had a much colder first half. PDX is only -0.9F as of today. It wouldn’t surprise me to see you guys end the month below average since I’m betting the worst of this torch spares northern areas.

[MossMan]

Love mornings like this...cool, dry and breezy. My Border Collies love it as well! Currently 47 degrees with lowering clouds now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If anything the subsequent model runs extend the torch. 

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GFS has extreme blocking returning to the GOA by early December.  Looking like that is going to be the default this season.  Most models agree on northerly flow setting up over us before day 10 now.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah, you guys had a much colder first half. PDX is only -0.9F as of today. It wouldn’t surprise me to see you guys end the month below average since I’m betting the worst of this torch spares northern areas.

Could be, though Wednesday looks potentially record breaking warmth as of now.

[snow_wizard]

If anything the subsequent model runs extend the torch. 

 

They've been pretty consistent on showing it being fairly short lived.

[Jesse]

They've been pretty consistent on showing it being fairly short lived.

The 12z shows a second spike toward +10c down here, toward the weekend. Definitely prolongs the torch. Decent ensemble support too.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z ensemble is fully on board with a sharp cooling on the 24th followed by another round of lesser warmth for a few days.  Classic see saw pattern.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z shows a second spike toward +10c down here, toward the weekend. Definitely prolongs the torch. Decent ensemble support too.

 

Wow.  It only gets to +5 up here on the second one.  The models are unanimous on high GOA heights returning before the month is over.  At any rate this is the perfect time to see this historically speaking.  

[Jesse]

Wow. It only gets to +5 up here on the second one.

Clear sign you guys will get way more snow up there this year! Temperatures unusually don’t get cooler as you move north. Very strange stuff.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF now holds the rain off until after 4 p.m. and then its getting dark anyways.    Decent weekend.   We will end up with rain on both days (early yesterday morning and later this evening) but the daylight hours of both days totally dry.    Timing is everything.   

 

[TT-SEA]

Side note... the models completely shifted back to keeping the front way down south later tomorrow which should result in good weather for the Seahawks game.    

 

The models have really struggled with the progression of this front and how far south it goes before turning back north again as a warm front.

 

Here is the new 12Z ECMWF for tomorrow evening:

 

 

[MossMan]

12Z ECMWF now holds the rain off until after 4 p.m. and then its getting dark anyways. Decent weekend. We will end up with rain on both days (early yesterday morning and later this evening) but the daylight hours of both days totally dry. Timing is everything.

 

I was wondering with how slow the progression has been on the radar. Getting some very gusty winds right now though...power flickering and it’s messing with my digital antenna signal while trying to watch the Rams/Vikings game.

[TT-SEA]

I was wondering with how slow the progression has been on the radar. Getting some very gusty winds right now though...power flickering and it’s messing with my digital antenna signal while trying to watch the Rams/Vikings game.

 

I am watching that game too.    Should be a good one.   

 

Dead calm here now with some filtered sun.   The front is really slow moving right now so I was pleasantly surprised to see all the 12Z models keep it down in Oregon tomorrow afternoon and evening.   It does not come back until Tuesday morning now.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As long as people continue to fondly reminiscence on December 1996, I will continue to focus on PDX/metro south when looking at the models.  

[Jesse]

As long as people continue to fondly reminiscence on December 1996, I will continue to focus on PDX/metro south when looking at the models.

Neither are bad.

[ShawniganLake]

As long as people continue to fondly reminiscence on December 1996, I will continue to focus on PDX/metro south when looking at the models.

As awesome as 1996 was up here. I prefer 2008.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Neither are bad.

 

Very good Jesse! A 3rd way! Even better than compromise!

[TT-SEA]

Very disappointing pattern for the mountains. Models showed almost 4 feet of snow for Snoqualmie Pass earlier in the week... they got about 10. Now the 12Z ECMWF shows only 5 inches up there over the next week and most of that is Tuesday morning and that will melt in the warm southerly flow later in the week. Went from being excited for an early opening to no chance in sight now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As awesome as 1996 was up here. I prefer 2008.

 

Did it snow anywhere south of Olympia/Tacoma in 1996? 

 

This is what I remember from 96'

 

Phone rings

 

Me: "Hi uncle Ed."

Uncle Ed (Lives in Bellingham): "Looks like at least 2 feet of snow! My gazebo just collapsed!"

Me: "Wow, that's cool."

Uncle Ed: "How much snow do you guys have?"

Me: "It is about 55 degrees, 2 inches of rain....(voice trails off and I hand the phone to my mom and then go cry.)."

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did it snow anywhere south of Olympia/Tacoma in 1996? 

 

This is what I remember from 96'

 

Phone rings

 

Me: "Hi uncle Ed."

Uncle Ed (Lives in Bellingham): "Looks like at least 2 feet of snow! My gazebo just collapsed!"

Me: "Wow, that's cool."

Uncle Ed: "How much snow do you guys have?"

Me: "It is about 55 degrees, 2 inches of rain....(voice trails off and I hand the phone to my mom and then go cry.)."

 

For the record January 1998 was MUCH MORE devastating personally...

[MossMan]

As awesome as 1996 was up here. I prefer 2008.

I loved the longevity of 2008! 1996 was epic but was a 3-4day event where 2008 was about a 13 day event. Plus I had a total of 34” of snow compared to about 25” in 1996.