St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 ^ lol. O-K then. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Radar returns are showing up but most everything is virga. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Getting nice fluffy lake effect snow here now, nice snow globe look to it. Temperature is now at 21° Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 I had a low of -2° this morning. The official low at the airport was 0° the record low for this date was -1° so that record will stand. I now have 8" of snow on the ground that is the same as the official snow depth was on this date last year. The NWS office in Grand Rapids has issued a WWA for tonight into Friday morning for 2 to 4" of snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Nice but that was 2 runs ago Ummm...how long you been trolling storms, aka model watching?? At that range you don't post an eye-candy storm porn or w/e you wish to call it map because you think "that's the final answer". You post it to say "this is one possible outcome and wouldn't it be awesome if just once, it came true?". Were you aware that a 384hr GFS run basically showed the exact outcome of GHD-2 for Detroit. Yeah, the blind squirrel found the nut that time, so nobody can say "it never happens" and I personally feel that models have improved in "flashing" something close to reality from further out than ever before, including the GHD-2 era. Now, back to clinging to the latest run, only (what'd she say?) 28 more til 0 hour? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Ummm...how long you been trolling storms, aka model watching?? At that range you don't post an eye-candy storm porn or w/e you wish to call it map because you think "that's the final answer". You post it to say "this is one possible outcome and wouldn't it be awesome if just once, it came true?". Were you aware that a 384hr GFS run basically showed the exact outcome of GHD-2 for Detroit. Yeah, the blind squirrel found the nut that time, so nobody can say "it never happens" and I personally feel that models have improved in "flashing" something close to reality from further out than ever before, including the GHD-2 era. Now, back to clinging to the latest run, only (what'd she say?) 28 more til 0 hour? Ummmmm.....yeah that wasnt my point. Was just saying there were a couple more runs since then. And no one should ever live or die from the latest model run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 I like the Blackhawks; especially the Uncheckable Czech... Three Four likes (and counting!) for an "lol"...will probably have an all time board record by sundown... I wish I could achieve such levels of popularity whilst incorporating such grammatical & syntactical brevity...If I had put a smiley face after the lol would we still be having this conversation? Maybe you wouldn’t have taken it so seriously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Now, back to clinging to the latest run, only (what'd she say?) 28 more til 0 hour? Nah, only 14 more model runs. I’m clinging to the Euro. ; ) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 18z still has a big storm for ia mn wi etc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 18z GFS has a system for much of the sub north of about I-80 7 days from now. Something to watch as the GFS has slowly been trending southward and more potent with this system over the past few days. Not sure what the euro is doing, haven't really looked. But the 12z Euro had things north of about I-90. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Definitely starting to look more promising for something to track anyways. Right now looks like some overrunning snows at the onset with the SLP coming in after. Those are always interesting with the areas that can get snow from both ends really scoring. GFS with plenty of cold air behind the system too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew NE Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Great trends all around at the moment, boy Texas could be looking a big ice storm right before xmas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Definitely starting to look more promising for something to track anyways. Right now looks like some overrunning snows at the onset with the SLP coming in after. Those are always interesting with the areas that can get snow from both ends really scoring. GFS with plenty of cold air behind the system too. Yea that thing just cuts itself off down there for like 2 days. Would be a colossal travel disaster if anything close to that were to verify. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Tiniest raindrops I have ever seen are falling right now. With the humidity and wind outside right now it certainly does feel way colder than the actual temperature of 38°. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 Most of the AFDs I read today were pretty lame regarding this potential system, but DMX did have at least a little bit on it. By Thursday the long wave trough will mature through the Rockies,but as one would expect at Day 7 there are varied solutions amongthe ECMWF and GFS deterministic runs and their associatedensembles with uncertainty regarding short wave strength andtiming. Thus confidence is fairly high in some form ofprecipitation around this time across the Midwest, likely snow ofsome degrees over portions of IA, especially north, butconfidence in details is low. Confidence is also high in anassociated nearby frontal system and baroclinic zone, but theaforementioned variability will result in low confidence down tothe scale of our forecast area with the surface low track anywherefrom IA to MO. This will result in a fairly wide range inpotential temperatures. Although it will be beyond the forecastperiod, there is relatively high confidence in colder weatherbehind the passage of this system to end the work week with whatwould likely be the coldest temperatures of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 14, 2017 Report Share Posted December 14, 2017 GFS/EURO/CMC definitely have systems to track, but what they do and how they eject out is in question. GFS looks nice, has a system christmas day for the entire central Plains pretty much, but heaviest just south in Kansas. EURO is further north obviously. So still lots of uncertainty. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Weeklies look much improved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 I don't have time to share them but I bet someone else can find them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Weeklies are meh. Of course the best period happens to be when I'm gone once again. Mean averages about 3" after Christmas so that's encouraging for those who will be here. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Both gfs and cmc took a step back Doesn’t really dig and it’s much warmer compared to 12z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Northwoods have been raking pretty comparatively speaking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 The weeklies look great. Has the western US in below average temps, good for storminess and western troughs to possibly develop. CMC further west with the trough near Christmas but the GFS so far pretty progressive with the trough later next week...still a lot could happen as we get closer to 240 hours... Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 WOW gfs already considerably different at 174 hours compared to the 12z and 18z model runs. This is crazy lol; 0z 18z 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Lezak mentioned today in his blog to watch the base of the trough coming in from the southwest. You can see a piece gets hung out in the pacific; I would think we would either want these two pieces to come together or have one hang out far enough west and send out pieces of energy for a while. Regardless, I just hope we see the southwest flow set up shop for longer than a week so we all can stand a chance of storms riding out from the upper level flow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Describes the GFS perfectly; 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Looking at the next 7 days on out....we got one chance for a white Christmas. Hope and a prayer next Thurs. night. Not liking the odds. Oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Looking at the next 7 days on out....we got one chance for a white Christmas. Hope and a prayer next Thurs. night. Not liking the odds. Oh well.Chances are for late next week and on Christmas day itself depending on how many pieces rotate northeast. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Euro looks nearly identical to gfs for next week Low tracks through IA/S.WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Euro looks nearly identical to gfs for next week Low tracks through IA/S.WII'm only looking at the 24 hour increments on Tropical Tidbits, but the Euro is definitely South of the 00z GFS (which admittedly was well North of the 18z and 12z) I'll be visiting my family in Chicago so I'm rooting for the Southern solutions! GFS: Euro: Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Wow...the EURO cuts off the low and sends it back southwest into the pacific ocean lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Yeah. Toss it. I don't see that happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Doesn't the euro always cutoff lows? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Doesn't the euro always cutoff lows?The Euro is simply trash in this pattern period and the GFS is too progressive with the front at this point because at that range, its resolution still sucks. Still a ton of changes to go. I'm sticking pretty near the GEFS solution at this juncture as it's the storm I've been looking for and hinting about since November 29. I'm not too worried about this winter and haven't been since August. Going to be a good one for you too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 My call awhile back for wall-to-wall cold this winter is actually looking more realistic by the second as well. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 00z Euro holding strong for the Winter Solstice storm... http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121500/mw/ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_198.png http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121500/greatlakes/ecmwf_acc_snow_greatlakes_198.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 00z Euro Control very similar to the Euro Op just a bit farther south... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Looks like a rainer here. Should be good to get the tails open in the north though! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2017 Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 The likelihood of an impactful winter storm are increasing for later next week. IMO, this should be the season's first widespread winter storm for our members. The system will be forming out of CO and ejecting out towards the GL's. There is still a lot of spread among the ensembles which is to be expected but an interesting storm is on the table. At this juncture, I feel that places from I-80 across IA and north of the "cheddar curtain" are in a better position to see accumulating snow from this system. Depending on how quick it develops, folks out in NE that haven't seen any meaningful snow are still in the game. I don't think this storm cuts to quick due to the influence of a tanking -EPO, even though we have to deal with a +AO/+NAO during this period. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 15, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2017 Currently @ 18F w cloudy skies. More snow for MBY w 1-3inches expected, locally 4" amounts in some locales. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.